Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
Headline inflation falls sharply, but core rate unchanged Falling headline inflation in Switzerland will provide relief to consumers but does not change the picture for the SNB. Underlying price pressures remain near all-time highs, which will convince …
5th May 2023
Sweden dodges recession for now News that the Swedish economy expanded slightly in Q1, and thereby narrowly avoided a recession, adds to the evidence that economic activity in Europe as a whole has held up well in Q1. That said, we still think Sweden is a …
27th April 2023
Core inflation dips below 9% The fall in Sweden’s measure of core inflation to 8.9% in March suggests that it may now be passed its peak. But it is still much higher than the Riksbank had anticipated at its February meeting and does not change our view …
14th April 2023
Rise in core inflation makes 25bp hike in May very likely March’s inflation data make it all but certain that the Norges Bank will press on with its planned 25bp rate hike at the next meeting in May. The increase in headline CPI inflation from 6.3% in …
11th April 2023
March’s sharp fall in headline inflation in Switzerland will provide some relief for the SNB as the decrease was spread across a wide range of goods. However, underlying price pressures remain strong by Swiss standards and we expect the SNB to hike …
3rd April 2023
Soaring core inflation adds to pressure on the Riksbank Although it was partly due to higher food prices, the jump in the “core” measure of inflation in Sweden to 9.3% will reinforce policymakers’ determination to raise rates further. We expect another …
15th March 2023
Lower inflation means Norges Bank can stick to 25bp hikes February’s decline in headline and core inflation takes some of the pressure off the Norges Bank and means that it is likely to hike by 25bp at the meeting in two weeks’ time. After surprising on …
10th March 2023
Inflation likely to stay above 3% over the coming months. The CPI data for February suggest there is a long way to go before inflation returns to target especially as underlying prices pressures show no signs of abating, with the core inflation rate …
6th March 2023
Economy stagnates in Q4 Despite stagnating in Q4, the Swiss economy remained notably bigger than its pre-pandemic level and has outperformed its European peers. We are forecasting a contraction in Q1 2023 and for the economy to flatline over 2023, but …
28th February 2023
Yet another increase in core inflation The fall in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation was largely due to a huge one-off drop in electricity prices but policymakers will focus more on the big increase in core inflation. This vindicates their recent …
20th February 2023
Resilient economy boosts case for further rate hikes after March Norway’s mainland economy put in a much better performance in Q4 than the central bank expected and ended the year with a healthy expansion in December. Together with the continued …
15th February 2023
Inflation still likely to fall this year The rise in Swiss headline inflation will be of less concern to SNB policymakers than the increase in the core rate to its highest level on record. However, we do not think these increases are the start of a new …
13th February 2023
Rate hike next month a near certainty, more could follow The strength of consumer price inflation in January makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will raise its policy rate at its next meeting in March, most likely by 25bp. And with house …
10th February 2023
Recession began in Q4 after all Data published today show that the economy contracted by 0.6% q/q in Q4 as the resilience previously reported towards the end of last year has been revised away. With the more timely data for December and January still …
30th January 2023
Another rise in core inflation means 50bp hike in February nailed on Yet another larger-than-expected increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation and in the core rate suggest that policymakers are highly likely to raise rates by 50bp in …
13th January 2023
Strong core inflation to prompt one final Norges Bank hike The continued strength of core inflation will encourage the Norges Bank to press on with another 25bp interest rate increase next week. While there is still some more upside risk to underlying …
10th January 2023
Fall in headline rate but core rate rises Headline inflation in Switzerland fell in December but the rise in the core rate will be a concern for SNB policymakers. We still think that the Bank will raise rates by just 25bp in March, compared to the 50bp …
4th January 2023
Core inflation likely to come down more slowly than Riksbank hopes The increase in Sweden’s measure of core inflation to 8.0% was a touch below expectations but it still marks a new 31-year high. With CPIF inflation having risen to well above the …
14th December 2022
Fall in inflation won’t stop 25bp Norges Bank hike The declines in headline and core inflation in November won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates by 25bp next week. But they support our view that the tightening cycle is very nearly over. …
9th December 2022
Stable inflation keeps pressure off SNB The low inflation rate in November supports our view that the Swiss National Bank will not need to raise interest rates much further in the current cycle. Indeed, there is a growing chance that policymakers raise …
1st December 2022
Growth set to slow in Q4 After increasing by 0.2% q/q in Q3, the Swiss economy is set to slow in Q4, although any recession will probably be shallower than we had previously expected, and shallower than in neighbouring Germany. The 0.2% q/q increase in …
29th November 2022
Rise in core inflation will keep Riksbank in hawkish mode Another bigger-than-expected increase in core inflation, to 7.9% in October, will keep the Riksbank focused on slowing demand when policymakers meet next week. We expect a further 75bp rate hike, …
15th November 2022
Strong inflation requires Norges Bank to keep on hiking October’s stronger-than-expected inflation data pose an upside risk to our forecast for the policy rate to peak at 3%. But with house prices falling, the Norges Bank faces a tricky balancing act. The …
10th November 2022
Falling inflation will allow SNB to raise rates less than others The decline in both core and headline inflation in October supports our view that Switzerland has passed peak inflation. We expect further falls in the coming months which will allow the …
3rd November 2022
Another bigger-than-expected rise in core inflation The large increase in inflation in September, to 10.8%, confirms that the Riksbank will press on with its rapid monetary policy tightening. For now we have assumed that rates will peak at 2.5% in …
13th October 2022
Strong inflation likely to prompt another 50bp Norges Bank hike The Norges Bank signalled at its last meeting that it would slow the pace of rate hikes, but the strength of September’s inflation data – published this morning – makes another 50p hike …
10th October 2022
Swiss inflation appears to have peaked The fall in the headline rate of inflation in Switzerland in September suggests that price pressures may have peaked there, which is consistent with the message from the latest business surveys. Meanwhile, the …
3rd October 2022
Further rise in core inflation increases chance of 75bp hike The continued increase in inflation in August, with the core rate hitting its highest level since December 1991, will keep the Riksbank in hawkish mode. We had expected the Bank to raise its …
14th September 2022
High inflation to prompt another 50bp Norges Bank hike The continued increase in core inflation in August took it further above the Norges Bank’s target. With policymakers in hawkish mood, we expect another 50bp rate hike at the next meeting in two weeks. …
9th September 2022
Swiss inflation at 29-year high At 3.5% in August, up from +3.4% in July, Swiss inflation was a touch higher than expected (CE 3.3%, consensus 3.4%) and reached its highest level since August 1993. (See Chart 1.) In contrast, the core inflation rate was …
1st September 2022
Further rise in core inflation will keep Riksbank in hawkish mode The decline in CPIF inflation in July will be of limited comfort to policymakers given that the core rate, excluding energy, jumped to 6.6%. We still think the Riksbank may raise its repo …
12th August 2022
Chances of another 50 bp hike next week rising The increase in CPI-ATE to a record-high will have raised eyebrows at the Norges Bank. We think another 50 basis point hike at next week’s interim meeting is likely. The increase in the headline inflation …
10th August 2022
Inflation appears to have peaked Swiss inflation appears to have peaked in July at an enviably low level compared to that of most other advanced economies. That said, the core rate reached its highest level in more than two decades, which is likely to …
3rd August 2022
Q2 GDP to prove a high-water mark until late 2023 The 1.4% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 poses upside risks to our below-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 2022. But with a recession on the cards in late 2022 and early 2023, activity is unlikely to …
28th July 2022
Stronger-than-expected inflation strengthens case for front loading hikes The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in June will only strengthen the resolve of policymakers to squeeze inflation out of the system and raises the chance that …
14th July 2022
Another 50bp hike looking tempting for the Norges Bank The services-driven increase in Norway’s core inflation rate in June increases the chance that the Norges Bank will raise its policy rate by another 50bps at its August policy meeting. The increase in …
11th July 2022
No comfort for the SNB Although Swiss inflation remains enviably low compared to many advanced economies, the further increase in the core rate will only strengthen the SNB’s resolve to squeeze price rises out of the system. A return to positive nominal …
4th July 2022
50 basis point hike in June now looks nailed on The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in May lends support to our forecast that the Riksbank will step up the pace of tightening. A 50bp hike in the policy rate now looks increasingly …
14th June 2022
Case for a step-up in the pace of rate hikes in June is now overwhelming The stronger-than-expected increase in Norway’s core inflation rate in May lends support to our forecast that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening later this month. A …
10th June 2022
Solid Q1 but activity will have softened in Q2 The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP in Q1 provides a solid base for year-on-year growth rates throughout 2022. But with surveys heading south, and signs of stagnation in the euro-zone in Q2, we …
31st May 2022
Inflation at a 31-year high The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in April was partly due to high energy and food prices but also because of broadening price pressures. We expect the core rate to remain above the Riksbank’s target for …
12th May 2022
Inflation pick-up brings 50bp hike in June on the table The stronger-than-expected increase in core inflation in April raises the chances that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening at its next rate decision, in June. The increase in CPI …
10th May 2022
Inflation at a 31-year high The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in March is likely to give more ammunition to the hawks in the Riksbank, and lends support to our view that the Bank will start to raise the repo rate and press ahead …
14th April 2022
Lower-than-expected inflation won’t stop Norges Bank hiking Although headline and core inflation came in below expectations in March, underlying price pressures are likely to push both measures up a bit in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank is …
11th April 2022
Swiss inflation to remain above 2% for much of this year Swiss inflation rose further above the SNB’s definition of price stability in March, and higher commodity prices and continued supply problems will keep it there for most of this year. Given the …
1st April 2022
Another blow to the notion of Swedish inflation exceptionalism The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in February is surely the final nail in the coffin for the Riksbank’s thus-far dovish stance, and lends support to our view that the …
14th March 2022
Hand of the hawkish triumvirate strengthened The increase in Swedish CPIF excluding energy was significantly higher than expected and pushed the core rate above the Riksbank’s 2.0% target for the first time in nearly three years. While we expect headline …
18th February 2022
Swiss inflation at a 13-year high but will head down from here Inflation was stronger than expected in Switzerland in January, although the upward surprise was not in the same league as that seen in the euro-zone and Swiss inflation is still consistent …
11th February 2022
Fall in CPI-ATE unlikely to deter the Norges Bank Given the backdrop of a tightening labour market, the fall in CPI-ATE is likely to be a one-off. We think that once the latest wave dissipates, the core inflation rate will pick up again and may rise above …
10th February 2022
Strong industrial activity to offset services softness The continued resilience of the manufacturing PMIs in Switzerland and Sweden in January indicates that industry will have supported activity through a restrictions-driven soft patch for services in …
1st February 2022
