Filtered by Subscriptions: Middle East & North Africa Economics Use setting Middle East & North Africa Economics
Inflation to return to positive territory at start of 2020 Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia declined at their slowest pace so far this year in October and the headline rate is likely to return to positive territory soon. The prospect of fresh fiscal …
19th November 2019
Saudi non-oil sector keeps up momentum, but UAE’s slump continues October’s whole economy PMIs suggest that the upturn in fortunes for Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector continued at the start of Q4. In contrast, the recent slump in the UAE appears to be more …
5th November 2019
Deflation continues to ease Saudi consumer prices fell at their slowest pace so far this year in September and we expect the headline rate to return to positive territory at the start of 2020. Data just released showed that the headline inflation rate …
21st October 2019
Inflation drops to seven-year low, more rate cuts on the way The further drop in Egyptian inflation in September to a seven-year low of just 4.8% y/y means that the central bank will press ahead with its easing cycle over the coming months. We now expect …
10th October 2019
Saudi non-oil sector holding up well, but UAE’s slump continues September’s batch of whole economy PMIs provided further evidence of a divergence between non-oil sectors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But we don’t think this will continue for much longer as …
3rd October 2019
Oil output cuts drag growth down GDP growth in Saudi Arabia slowed further to 0.5% y/y in Q2 and, in quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy officially entered recession. The slowdown reflected a greater drag from oil output cuts, which more than offset …
30th September 2019
Signs that price pressures are building Saudi Arabian consumer price figures showed that deflation eased to -1.1% y/y in August and we expect it to return to positive territory in annual terms at the start of next year. Saudi Arabian inflation rose from …
24th September 2019
Further decline in inflation opens door for more rate cuts The decline in Egyptian inflation in August to a six-year low of 7.5% y/y makes it is almost certain that the central bank will follow up last month’s 150bp interest rate cut with further easing. …
10th September 2019
Plunge in UAE PMI raises concerns over outlook August’s whole economy PMIs from the Gulf suggest that the pick-up in growth in non-oil sectors seen in the first half of the year has topped out. If oil prices stay low and fiscal policy becomes less …
3rd September 2019
Deflation eases further Saudi consumer prices continued to fall in July, by -1.3% y/y, but a closer look at the data suggests that underlying price pressures are starting to build. The headline rate is likely to return to positive territory by early next …
28th August 2019
Drop in inflation bolsters case for rate cuts The drop in Egyptian inflation to a four year low of 8.7% y/y in July reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at its next meeting with a 100bp cut in the overnight deposit rate, …
8th August 2019
Pick-up in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors appears to have run its course The drop in PMIs across the Gulf in July suggests that the pick-up in growth in non-oil sectors in the first half of 2019 has started to go into reverse. If oil prices stay low and …
5th August 2019
Deflation continues to ease Deflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease last month as the pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector fed through into stronger price pressures. If oil prices stay low, as we expect, the government is likely to push ahead …
23rd July 2019
Inflation falls to three-year low, easing cycle to restart soon The sharp decline in Egyptian inflation last month, to a three-year low of 9.4% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank will soon resume its easing cycle. But policymakers will wait …
10th July 2019
PMIs hold up in the Gulf, but momentum is unlikely to last June’s PMI figures were robust across the Gulf, but we expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter and fiscal policy becomes less supportive. Meanwhile, subdued price pressures in Egypt …
3rd July 2019