Filtered by Subscriptions: Middle East & North Africa Economics Use setting Middle East & North Africa Economics
Non-oil sector recoveries to pick up the pace in H2 May’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag suggesting that economic recoveries in the Gulf are struggling to gather momentum for the time being. But, with vaccination programmes strengthening and …
3rd June 2021
Inflation to continue to drift higher, but set to fall sharply in H2 Saudi inflation rose to 5.3% y/y in April and, while we expect the headline rate to rise further over the rest of this quarter, it is set to fall sharply to 1.5-2.0% from July as the …
20th May 2021
Fresh downturn in Q1, but cause for optimism Saudi Arabia’s economy recorded a slight contraction in Q1 as the impact of the Kingdom’s additional voluntary output cut more than offset a further rebound in non-oil sectors. With oil output cuts now being …
10th May 2021
Inflation falls, raising possibility that CBE moves sooner to cut rates Egypt’s headline inflation rate fell to a seven-month low of 4.1% y/y in April, leaving it well below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range. We think the headline …
Inflation slows further, set to fall sharply in H2 Saudi inflation fell to 4.9% y/y in March and, while the headline rate is likely to rise in Q2, we expect it to fall sharply to 1.5-2.0% from July as the effects of last year’s VAT hike fade. Data …
15th April 2021
Soft price pressures increase chances of rate cut Egypt’s headline inflation rate held steady at 4.5% y/y in March, leaving it below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range. There is a growing chance that, with the economy still …
8th April 2021
Inflation dips, but set to rise again over the coming months Saudi inflation dropped to an eight-month low of 5.2% y/y in February and while, it is likely to rise again over the next few months, we expect it to fall sharply to 1.5-2.0% from July as the …
15th March 2021
Inflation will continue to drift higher, rates on hold for now The slight pick-up in Egyptian inflation to 4.5% y/y in February still leaves the headline rate below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range but, if we’re right in …
10th March 2021
Non-oil sector recoveries sluggish as restrictions tightened February’s batch of whole economy PMIs suggest economic activity in non-oil sectors across the region eased last month on the back of tighter virus containment measures. Aside from the UAE, …
3rd March 2021
Inflation to stay high until middle of the year Saudi inflation rose to 5.7% y/y in the first month of the year as softer food inflation was more than offset by stronger transport inflation. Higher global oil and food prices, combined with the lingering …
16th February 2021
Inflation falls, but rate cuts still unlikely until later in the year The drop in Egyptian inflation to 4.3% y/y in January leaves the headline rate below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE) target range but, if we’re right in expecting inflation …
10th February 2021
Recovery still struggling The flash estimate of Saudi Q4 GDP showed that the economy continued to recover at the end of 2020 but it remained slow-going. Tighter virus containment measures and deeper oil production cuts mean that the economy is likely to …
Recoveries held back by tightening of virus restrictions January’s batch of whole economy PMIs suggest that that economic recoveries in the region have struggled to gain more momentum at the start of this year as fresh virus outbreaks have prompted a …
3rd February 2021
Inflation eases, but will remain high over first half of 2021 Saudi inflation dropped back to 5.3% y/y in the final month of last year as softer food and housing inflation more than offset a further rise in health inflation to a two-year high. The effects …
14th January 2021
Vaccine rollout boosts Gulf economies December’s whole economy PMIs suggest that the Gulf economies have been boosted by improved sentiment on the back of the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. But activity in Egypt weakened as the country struggles with a …
5th January 2021
Inflation holds steady Saudi inflation held steady at 5.8% y/y in November as a rise in transport inflation was offset by weaker price pressures elsewhere. The effects of July’s VAT hike will continue to keep the headline rate elevated until the middle of …
15th December 2020
Inflation rises, but still scope for further monetary loosening The jump in Egyptian inflation to 5.7% y/y in November still leaves it below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range, leaving the door open for interest rates to be lowered further …
10th December 2020
Recoveries still struggling to gather momentum November’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa showed a mixed performance and, despite the global economic backdrop improving amid the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, economic …
3rd December 2020
Stronger inflation to temper CBE rate cuts The rise in Egyptian inflation to 4.5% y/y in October adds to the reasons why we think that policymakers will hold off on cutting interest rates when they meet on Thursday. Further out, we think that the easing …
10th November 2020
Slow recovery gets underway The first ever “flash estimate” of Saudi GDP released today showed that the easing of virus containment measures supported an economic recovery in Q3. But the rebound was weak and the latest monthly activity figures suggest …
A mixed bag, but recoveries to remain sluggish October’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa were a mixed bag but, against the backdrop of renewed lockdowns across the globe and low oil prices, recoveries are likely to remain …
3rd November 2020
Food and education drag inflation down Saudi inflation dropped back to 5.7% y/y in September as food inflation eased and schools slashed tuition fees ahead of the new academic year. While the effects of July’s VAT hike will keep inflation elevated until …
15th October 2020
PMIs rise, but recoveries to remain slow-going September’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all rose as a further easing of virus containment measures supported another pick-up in economic activity. But against the backdrop …
5th October 2020
Economy slumps, recovery already stuttering Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 7.0% y/y in Q2 on the back of the virus containment measures and oil production cuts. And even though containment measures have started to be lifted, the imposition of harsh …
30th September 2020
Inflation edges up as effects of VAT hike dominate Saudi inflation edged up to 6.2% y/y in August as the effects of the VAT hike at the start of July continued to dominate. Inflation will remain elevated until the middle of next year and, combined with …
15th September 2020
Inflation slows to nine-month low, but CBE likely to keep rates on hold The fall in Egyptian inflation to a nine-month low of 3.4% y/y in August increases the likelihood that the central bank will resume its easing cycle when it meets later this month. …
10th September 2020
Recoveries already losing steam, deflation to persist in the Gulf August’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all fell adding to the signs that activity in the region has plateaued amid fiscal austerity and continued virus …
3rd September 2020
VAT hike triggers inflation jump Saudi inflation jumped to 6.1% y/y in July on the back of the tripling of the VAT rate from 5% to 15% and we expect it to hover around this level over the next twelve months. This, combined with the suspension of the Cost …
17th August 2020
Inflation drops to eight-month low, easing cycle to resume on Thursday The fall in Egyptian inflation to an eight-month low of 4.2% y/y in July, alongside easing pressure on the pound, means that we think an interest rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting is …
10th August 2020
Bumpy recovery continues July’s batch of whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all rose compared with surveys from June but, against the backdrop of prolonged weakness in tourism and hospitality sectors and fiscal austerity, the …
5th August 2020
Inflation eases, but VAT hike will cause it to jump this month Saudi inflation eased to its lowest level this year in June as weak demand dampened underlying price pressures and fuel inflation dropped further. But this is likely to mark the low-point and …
15th July 2020
Inflation rise unlikely to prevent CBE resuming easing cycle later this year Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.6% y/y in June and will probably rise a bit further over the coming months. Crucially, though, we expect inflation to remain below …
9th July 2020
Region set for a bumpy recovery June’s batch of whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa were mixed but the big picture is that, even as lockdown measures are eased, the region’s economic recovery is set to be extremely sluggish. …
6th July 2020
Inflation eases, but will jump in July on back of VAT hike Saudi inflation edged down to 1.1% y/y last month as a further jump in food inflation was more than offset by weaker price pressures in other major categories. But the hike in the VAT rate means …
24th June 2020
Door swings open for easing cycle to resume The fall in Egyptian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May leaves the headline rate well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range and, with policymakers’ focus shifting away from supporting the pound to …
10th June 2020
Activity recovery, but still very weak Whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa rose compared with last month’s ultra-low levels as lockdown measures began to be eased, but activity remained very weak. And against the backdrop of …
3rd June 2020
Activity severely weak, slow recoveries to follow as lockdowns eased Whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa were at, or close to, record lows in April as efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak severely dented economic …
5th May 2020
Soft price pressures increase pressure for more rate cuts The slight fall in Egyptian inflation in March to 5.1% y/y leaves the headline rate well below the central bank’s target range which, coupled with the economic hit from the draconian measures to …
9th April 2020
Surveys hit record lows as economies shut down March’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak have resulted in a sharp decline in activity in the region’s non-oil sectors. Containment measures have escalated …
6th April 2020
Coronavirus fears and inflation fall bring rate cut back onto the table The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in February to 5.3% y/y puts it well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range. Coupled with mounting fears over the coronavirus …
10th March 2020
Coronavirus impact weighs on non-oil activity in the Gulf February’s whole economy PMIs suggests that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf has weakened amid the coronavirus outbreak. Efforts to contain the virus have escalated since the survey took …
3rd March 2020
Inflation continues to edge higher Saudi inflation rose for a twelfth consecutive month in January and, while we expect a fresh slowdown in the non-oil sector to keep a lid on underlying price pressures, further hikes to local fuel prices are likely to …
18th February 2020
Inflation rises, but central bank to restart easing cycle The modest rise in Egyptian inflation in January leaves it below the mid-point of the central bank’s target range and, after pausing for breath at the last MPC meeting, we think that policymakers …
10th February 2020
Gulf non-oil sectors start the year on soft note, Egypt price pressures rise January’s batch of whole economy PMIs suggested that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of the year. Meanwhile, underlying price pressures seem to be …
4th February 2020
Kingdom pulls out of deflation Saudi Arabia emerged from deflation in December, recording a positive inflation reading for the first time in a year. We expect underlying price pressures to stay weak over the course of this year, but higher local fuel …
21st January 2020
Central bank to look though inflation jump and cut rates The jump in Egyptian inflation last month to 7.1% y/y was largely due to the unwinding of favourable base effects but it means that next week’s interest rate decision will be a much closer call than …
9th January 2020
Gulf non-oil sectors soften, Egyptian price pressures remain subdued Whole economy PMIs for December suggested that activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector slowed at the end of last year, a sign that fresh fiscal austerity is already starting to take …
6th January 2020
Deflation eases, energy subsidy cuts seem to be on the agenda Deflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease in November and we think that the headline rate will return to positive territory in the New Year. Reports that the government is reviewing energy …
17th December 2019
Inflation picks up, but rate cuts still lie in store The rise in Egyptian inflation last month to 3.6% y/y still leaves the headline rate well below the central bank’s target paving the way for further interest rate cuts over the next twelve months or. We …
10th December 2019
Saudi non-oil sector picks up, Egyptian price pressures continue to ease November’s whole economy PMIs suggested that activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to strengthen, but with fiscal policy set to be tightened, this strength is …
3rd December 2019