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Latin American economies are facing a perfect storm of tightening financial conditions, low commodity prices and a collapse in services activity caused by social distancing. The fall in regional GDP this year will be as steep as it was during the Global …
27th March 2020
Latin American currencies and equities have been among the worst performers in the emerging world this month as fears about the spread of the coronavirus have intensified. The region has limited direct economic ties with the countries suffering outbreaks …
27th February 2020
The decline in energy and metals prices caused by concerns about the coronavirus took a heavy toll on the region’s financial markets in the last few weeks. The Brazilian and Chilean currencies have been the worst performers in the emerging world this …
30th January 2020
The last round of economic data released in 2019 pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but activity faltered elsewhere. For the region as a whole, …
19th December 2019
We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to contract in Q4, Mexico’s economy is showing few signs of …
29th November 2019
Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh on growth in Q4 and have already forced policymakers to …
31st October 2019
The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are struggling and in need of policy support. In Mexico, dovish …
30th September 2019
The collapse in Argentine assets this month and the subsequent news that the government will seek to reprofile its debts puts the country on the brink of its fifth default in thirty years. The economy is likely to fall back into recession, although the …
30th August 2019
The case for interest rate cuts across Latin America has strengthened in the past month, partly because of the dovish shift by the Fed, but also because of soft domestic inflation and growth. Policymakers at central banks in Chile and Mexico struck a …
25th July 2019
Investors have rapidly come round to our dovish view on Latin American monetary policy but, if anything, they have probably now gone too far in anticipating large rate cuts across the region over the next year or so. Brazil’s Copom is likely to trim the …
25th June 2019