We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to contract in Q4, Mexico’s economy is showing few signs of life, and growth in Brazil is likely to slow after a strong recovery in the last few months. One consequence is that, even though currencies have fallen and inflation has started to rise, central banks are likely to stay in easing mode in December.
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