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Q3 investment growth outlook still strong Although “core” machinery orders dropped sharply in August due to a crash in non-manufacturing orders, Q3’s average still points to an expansion in non-residential investment growth this quarter, chiming with …
12th October 2022
August surge largely due to favourable base effects Labour cash earnings jumped in August, but this was largely due to favourable base effects for hours worked and should slow over coming months. Preliminary estimates for August showed overall earnings …
7th October 2022
Capex projections scaled new heights Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is benefitting from the subsiding virus wave, the outlook for the manufacturing sector continues to worsen. The Tankan’s headline index for large …
3rd October 2022
Industry to struggle while retail sales outlook improves Both industrial production and retail sales growth quickened in August and while the rebound in industrial production will lose steam, retail sales will continue to expand as the record virus wave …
30th September 2022
Labour market will continue to tighten The unemployment rate dropped to a four-month low in August and the continued rise in the job-to-applicant ratio suggests that the labour market will continue to tighten. The labour force dropped by 70,000 last …
Post-virus services recovery underway September’s flash PMIs indicate yet another slowdown in the manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI falling from 51.5 in August to 51. Demand weakened again but this appeared to be mostly caused by domestic …
26th September 2022
Japan’s Ministry of Finance has intervened in support of the yen today, with the USD/JPY rate dropping from near 146 to ~143 at the time of writing, a ~2% appreciation in the space of an hour. Today’s decision effectively draws a line in the sand at 145 …
22nd September 2022
Bank of Japan won’t tighten even as inflation rises well above target The Bank of Japan kept policy loose and retained its easing bias today and we think it won’t tighten policy even as underlying inflation reaches its 2% target. As widely anticipated, …
Inflation in final stages of ascent Headline inflation jumped in August to yet another high since 1991 and it still has a stretch higher to climb. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy monetary policy. Headline …
20th September 2022
Deficit to shrink as import prices ease Japan’s trade deficit widened to yet another record high in August, but the peak shouldn’t be far away now. Commodity prices continue to ease, and the yen should end the year stronger than its current lows, which …
15th September 2022
Business investment to remain strong this quarter Although the surge in “core” machinery orders growth in July was driven by a handful of non-manufacturing sectors, the result still points to strong non-residential investment growth this quarter, chiming …
14th September 2022
Real wages to continue shrinking but spending will be supported by savings Labour cash earnings growth weakened slightly in July as growth in bonuses slowed and further moderation is in store from August with the end of the summer bonus season. Overall …
6th September 2022
Recovery to stall by September Industrial production made another stride towards pre-virus levels in July but the recovery should stall by September. Meanwhile, retail sales are in for a weak quarter despite a decent showing in July, as soaring inflation …
31st August 2022
Not much room left for further tightening The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in July and we do not see much room for further tightening in the labour market in 2022. The labour force shrank by 0.06% m/m in July, but with the adult population shrinking …
30th August 2022
Slowdown continues as supply shortages and virus wave persist August’s PMIs indicate a further slowdown in the manufacturing sector as demand slumped even further, while services continue to bear the brunt from the record Covid-19 wave. According to …
22nd August 2022