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It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. (See Chart 1.) And hopes of a near-term recovery have been well and truly snuffed out since …
19th March 2020
Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China (see Chart 1), where factory shutdowns are now having knock-on effects …
24th February 2020
2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. (See Chart 1.) Meanwhile, growth in new passenger vehicle sales is …
20th January 2020
The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t primarily an economic or financial issue, but there are …
18th December 2019
Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the services sector – which accounts for over 50% of the …
22nd November 2019
Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months (see Chart 1) as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened substantially - the finance ministry …
23rd October 2019
The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August, the government announced that it was easing …
19th September 2019
The rupee has fallen by around 4% so far this month, underperforming all other major currencies in Asia. Growing risk aversion amongst investors in recent weeks has resulted in broad losses in EM currencies, but the rupee has been further impacted by …
21st August 2019
Indian equities have dropped by over 3% so far in July (see Chart 1), even as most other Asian equities have held up reasonably well this month. The drop appears to have been triggered by proposals in this month’s union budget for FY19/20 which would …
23rd July 2019