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The Bank of Korea sounded more bearish on the outlook for the economy even as it left rates on hold today. As such, we continue to expect more easing this year, with another 25bps cut in October. Today’s decision followed the first rate cut in three years …
30th August 2019
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut rates today, but given our view that the rupee will come under pressure again this year, we think this will probably mark the last cut in 2019. Today’s decision by the CBSL to cut both its deposit and lending rate …
23rd August 2019
Despite the recent weakness of the rupiah, Bank Indonesia (BI) today cut its benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive month to 5.50% and hinted that further easing is on the horizon. But the uncertain outlook for the currency means any further …
22nd August 2019
For all the bad news on the global economy recently, it looks as if GDP growth across Emerging Asia held broadly stable last quarter. Although growth is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming year, with fiscal and monetary policy being loosened, we …
21st August 2019
An official from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today confirmed that it is not considering an unscheduled policy adjustment, but given the poor outlook for the economy loosening in October is still very likely. Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and …
13th August 2019
Today’s 25bp cut from the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) came as no surprise, and with inflation set to fall back further and growth only likely to stage a moderate recovery over the coming months, we expect another 25bp cut before the year is …
8th August 2019
The fall in Pakistan’s stock market today is the first sign that investors are starting to become concerned about the escalating crisis in Kashmir. The most likely outcome is that tensions are dialled back over the coming days, but even a period of …
7th August 2019
Weak growth and a strong currency were the main factors behind today’s surprise rate cut in Thailand. With the economy likely to slow further and the currency likely to continue to strengthen over the coming months, we think the central bank will cut …
Currencies from the rest of Asia have fallen back sharply following today’s drop in the renminbi to below 7.0 against the US dollar, and are likely to weaken further over the coming months. While weaker currencies are unlikely to stop central banks from …
5th August 2019
Japan’s decision to remove Korea from its list of trusted trading partners looks set to cause significant short-term disruption to Korea’s economy, and is likely to prompt the Bank of Korea (BoK) to cut interest rates sooner than we had previously …
2nd August 2019
Bank Indonesia (BI) today cut its benchmark interest rate from 6.0% to 5.75% and hinted that further easing is on the horizon. But the uncertain outlook for the currency means that this is unlikely to be the beginning of a prolonged easing cycle. Today’s …
18th July 2019
The Bank of Korea (BoK) today cut interest rates by 25bp to 1.50% and signalled that further easing is on the way. Given the poor outlook for growth and the change in sentiment by the central bank, we now think interest rates will be cut a further two …
Early indicators suggest that GDP growth slowed sharply across Emerging Asia in the second quarter. Although most countries should stage a gradual recovery over the coming year, growth is likely to remain much weaker than the consensus and the IMF expect. …
17th July 2019
Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised its benchmark interest rates by a further 100bp amid continued concerns about high inflation and the country’s current account deficit. With inflation set to rise further over the coming months and the external …
16th July 2019
Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 3.0% today, but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to slow in the second half of the year, we think the central bank will cut interest rates again soon. Today’s decision came …
9th July 2019
The policy tightening and structural reforms that Pakistan has agreed to as the price of a deal with the IMF are likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the near-term but should also help to put the economy on a more secure footing. The …
4th July 2019
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged today and gave little hint that it was preparing to follow other central banks in the region by loosening monetary policy. We expect interest rates to be left unchanged at 1.75% throughout 2019. …
26th June 2019
Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, will try to use his meeting with the Chinese president Xi Jinping in Singapore on Saturday to highlight the big improvement in cross-strait relations during his presidency. But while the past few years have seen a …
5th November 2015