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Tourism slump in Thailand The first quarter GDP figures for Thailand (due on Monday) will make for grim reading. While all economies have been hit hard by coronavirus containment measures, the global tourism industry has suffered disproportionately. …
15th May 2020
Encouraging signs as infections slow The low level of testing in some parts of the region means we shouldn’t read too much into the latest daily infection figures, but there are nevertheless some encouraging signs that more countries have succeeded in …
8th May 2020
Philippines: how bad will it get? Next Thursday’s Q1 GDP figures for the Philippines are likely to show that the economy grew at its slowest rate in over 10 years last quarter. But worse is still to come. The initial economic hit from the coronavirus was …
30th April 2020
Singapore lockdown extended, growth forecast cut The decision by Singapore’s government to extend and toughen its lockdown will further reduce economic output this year. We are cutting our GDP forecast again. The lockdown was due to come to an end on 4 th …
24th April 2020
Over the Moon in Korea With all the votes from Korea’s parliamentary election now counted, it has been confirmed that President Moon’s Democratic Party (DP) and its affiliate party won 180 of the 300 seats in the National Assembly Seats. That gives the DP …
17th April 2020
Bank Indonesia gets space it needs to cut The value of the rupiah will be at the forefront of Bank Indonesia (BI) policymakers’ minds when they meet on Tuesday. Data published earlier this week show that foreign exchange reserves fell by almost 8% in …
9th April 2020
Singapore shutdown Singapore today become the latest country in Asia to announce strict new social distancing rules to slow the spread of the coronavirus. All non-essential services will be closed for a minimum of a month. Singapore has been doing a much …
3rd April 2020
First quarter data point to sharp slowdown GDP figures for Vietnam and Singapore for the first quarter of the year show growth slowing sharply. The worst is yet to come. Figures published yesterday show that Singapore’s economy contracted by 10.6% q/q on …
27th March 2020
Should we be worried about currency falls? Asian currencies have dropped back sharply in recent days, and with no end in sight to the crisis, further sharp falls are likely. The Indonesian rupiah has been the worst performer and is now down over 12% since …
20th March 2020
Good news… Despite the turmoil in regional financial markets over the past week, there has been some good news to report from Asia. New cases of the coronavirus in China have continued to fall sharply, with the country reporting just eight new cases …
13th March 2020
Bank of Korea complacent in face of virus threat There has been some better news from Korea over the last few days, with the country reporting a drop in the number of new infections. (See Chart 1.) The government has enacted a rapid ramp-up in screening, …
6th March 2020
Malaysia unveils fiscal response to virus The political wrangling that has been taking place since Malaysia’s Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad unexpectedly resigned on Monday, did not prevent him from unveiling a stimulus package of 20bn ringgit (1.3% of …
28th February 2020
More countries considering fiscal response to virus Bank Indonesia this week became the latest central bank in the region to cut interest rates in response to the coronavirus outbreak (see here ), and we expect further easing over the coming week with the …
21st February 2020
Singapore to produce strong fiscal response to virus Singapore’s very strong fiscal position (it has fiscal reserves equivalent to 100% of GDP) mean it could afford a significant loosening of fiscal policy when it unveils its 2020 budget on Tuesday to …
14th February 2020
New GDP growth forecasts With the coronavirus continuing to spread, the economic costs to the rest of the region are starting to mount. There is clearly a great deal of uncertainty over how long the crisis will last, but based on the assumption that the …
7th February 2020
Vietnam: policy dilemma for central bank Inflation in Vietnam reached its highest rate since 2013 in January, but we doubt the central bank will respond by raising interest rates. The sharp rise in inflation from just 2.0% y/y in September to 6.4% in …
31st January 2020
Wuhan virus continues to spread With the number of new cases of the coronavirus continuing to increase, concern is rising across Asia over the potential economic impact. If the outbreak continues to spread, one of the main channels through which the …
24th January 2020
Strong rupiah gives space for BI to cut again Bank Indonesia is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, but the strong recent performance of the rupiah (see Chart 1) means further cuts are likely over the coming months. Chart …
17th January 2020
Taiwan heads to the polls Given her huge lead in the opinion polls, it will come as a major surprise if Tsai Ing-wen is not re-elected for a second and final term as Taiwan’s president on Saturday. Whether Tsai can get to grips with the main challenges …
10th January 2020
Oil price spike to have limited impact on inflation Oil prices have jumped following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful generals, but they would need to rise much further before higher prices started to have a major impact on …
3rd January 2020
Bank of Korea minutes reveal dovishness Minutes from the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) November rate meeting reveal that while only one of the seven members of its Monetary Policy Board voted for a cut, other members also struck a dovish tone. The member who …
20th December 2019
Indonesia considers relaxing fiscal rule Adopting a more flexible fiscal target would give Indonesia’s government more room to support growth during periods of weak demand without threatening the country’s fiscal position. Under the current fiscal rule, …
13th December 2019
Trade war disruption US trade data released earlier this week for October reveal the extent to which the US-China trade war is disrupting regional supply chains. In the first 10 months of the year, US imports from China fell by 15% as tariffs caused US …
6th December 2019
VAT cut a risk to Sri Lanka’s fiscal health In his first major policy move since being elected Sri Lankan president earlier this month, Gotabaya Rajapaksa on Wednesday cut the rate of VAT from 15% to 8% (the cut will take effect on 1 st December). On the …
29th November 2019
Latest data point to start of slow recovery Economic data published this week by Singapore and Korea, which are both good bellwethers for the rest of the region, add to evidence that the worst is now over for regional growth. The second estimate of …
22nd November 2019
Philippines: Will ill health force Duterte to resign? Speculation over the health of President Duterte continued this week following the announcement that he would be working from home in order to “have some rest”. Since becoming president in 2016, …
15th November 2019
Philippines: more easing in 2020 Governor Diokno was pretty emphatic earlier this week when he said that the central bank (BSP) had “absolutely” “done more than enough” this year. In response we are taking out the interest rate cut we originally had …
8th November 2019
New financial market forecasts Having previously expected equity and currency markets to fall sharply across Emerging Asia before the end of the year, we have revised our forecasts and now expect financial markets to remain broadly stable over the next …
1st November 2019
Taiwan – benefiting from the trade war In contrast to the rest of the region, where growth has recently been touching post-financial crisis lows, Taiwan’s economy has rebounded strongly over the past year. Our GDP Tracker, which is constructed using …
25th October 2019
More stimulus on the way in Korea GDP figures due to be released next week are likely to show Korea’s economy remained subdued in Q3 – we have pencilled in growth of just 0.4% q/q. (See our data preview below for more details.) However, with policy …
18th October 2019
Thailand takes steps to combat strong baht With the baht continuing to appreciate against the US dollar, the authorities in Thailand earlier this week unveiled a couple of further measures designed to put downward pressure on the currency. The steps …
11th October 2019
Growth looks to have stabilised in Q3 Countries across Emerging Asia are due to publish third quarter GDP figures over the coming weeks. But even before the official data are announced, it is possible to get a good idea of how growth in the region is …
4th October 2019
Weak Singapore data to prompt MAS to take action The poor recent performance of manufacturing in Singapore increases the chance that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will loosen policy aggressively at its meeting next month. Figures released …
27th September 2019
Is Indonesia going soft on corruption? Indonesia’s parliament has approved changes to how the country’s anti-corruption body (KPK) is governed, a move which could weaken its powers to investigate new corruption allegations. Since it was launched in 2002, …
20th September 2019
Strong baht not to blame for weak exports Policymakers and exporters in Thailand are once again voicing concern about the strength of the baht, which has appreciated again this week and is now approaching a six-year high against the US dollar. Since the …
13th September 2019
Deflation fears in Korea overblown Despite headline inflation in Korea (just) dropping into negative territory in August, we don’t think there is much risk of a prolonged period of deflation. Headline inflation fell to minus 0.04% last month – the first …
6th September 2019
Korea 2020 budget boost Korea’s proposed budget for 2020 includes a large fiscal boost, which should partially offset the external headwinds facing the economy. The draft budget will be submitted to the National Assembly next week and envisages an …
30th August 2019
Philippines budget: three key takeaways Earlier this week the government in the Philippines unveiled its budget plans for next year. There are three key points worth highlighting. First, while the government has been touting the boost to economic growth …
23rd August 2019
Global recession fears Weak data earlier this week from China and Europe, the worsening political crisis in Hong Kong and the fall in long term bond yields in the US have all helped raise fears of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. While we think …
16th August 2019
New currency forecasts In response to the renewed falls in Asian financial markets over the past week and the further escalation of the trade war between the US and China, we are revising some of our currency forecasts for this year. The drop in the …
8th August 2019
Mixed Q2 GDP figures, signs of export revival Second quarter GDP figures will be coming in thick and fast over the next few weeks. For the countries that have reported already, the numbers have been a mixed bag. In q/q terms, growth slowed in Hong Kong …
2nd August 2019
MAS to loosen sooner rather than later The recent deterioration in the economic data from Singapore adds weight to our view that monetary policy will be loosened before the central bank’s (MAS) next scheduled meeting in mid-October. The advanced Q2 GDP …
26th July 2019
Plans for further big minimum wage hike scrapped President Moon was elected in 2017 on a pledge to raise household incomes and reduce inequality. The cornerstone of his strategy was to raise the hourly minimum wage to 10,000 won (US$8.50) by 2020, which …
19th July 2019
How will policymakers respond to a strong baht? Policymakers and exporters in Thailand are once again voicing concern about the strength of the baht, which has appreciated by over 5% against the US dollar since January and is up by just under 9% against …
12th July 2019
Korea-Japan spat – should we be concerned? The restrictions that Japan has announced on the sale of certain technology products to Korea could, if fully implemented, have a significant effect on Korea’s economy. However, past experience suggests that it …
5th July 2019
Vietnam in Trump’s crosshairs Vietnam has emerged as the biggest winner of the US-China trade war. Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by around 50% since the middle of last year as US demand has shifted away from China towards alternative suppliers. …
28th June 2019