Taiwan election, Thailand’s currency dilemma

Given her huge lead in the opinion polls, it will come as a major surprise if Tsai Ing-wen is not re-elected for a second and final term as Taiwan’s president on Saturday. However, whether Tsai can get to grips with the main challenges facing Taiwan’s economy, including the deteriorating demographic outlook and the long-term decline in productivity growth, will depend on the results of the parliamentary election, which takes place on the same day. Meanwhile, the widening of Thailand’s trade surplus with the US is increasing the likelihood that the country will be labelled a currency manipulator by the US Treasury.