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Note: We’ll be discussing the upcoming Thai general election and the country’s near to long-term economic risks in a 20-minute online briefing at 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT on 11th May . Register now. Headline and core inflation both falling The April …
5th May 2023
Auto rebound to prove short lived Automotive production across Asia, which was badly hit during the pandemic by a shortage of semiconductor components, is now rebounding rapidly as this constraint unwinds. The surprise q/q expansion in Q1 Korean GDP …
28th April 2023
Goods exports to China have struggled National accounts data published this week show that China’s economy expanded by a faster-than-expected 2.2% q/q in the first quarter – taking output 6.8% higher than during the recent trough in Q2 2022. See our China …
21st April 2023
Difficult balancing act for the Philippines The US and the Philippines this week began their largest-ever joint military exercises, with 17,000 troops taking part. The exercises follow an agreement in February that provided the US with four more …
14th April 2023
Weak economy and elevated inflation in Singapore Having been one of the star performers during the pandemic, Singapore’s economy has weakened considerably in recent months. GDP grew by just 0.1% q/q in the final quarter of last year, and recent data …
6th April 2023
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Korea’s economic outlook remains bleak The latest activity data from Korea were a mixed bag but the economy is likely to feature among the worst …
31st March 2023
Indonesia reforms – boost to long-run prospects Long-term prospects for Indonesia’s economy received a boost this week when parliament passed a long-delayed series of reforms that should lift competitiveness. The Omnibus Law on Job Creation includes …
24th March 2023
Limited impact so far All of our coverage of the turmoil in the global banking system can be found on our dedicated webpage . There are also some webinars on the crisis you can listen to on demand. (See here .) For Emerging Asia, the impact has so …
17th March 2023
Thailand forecast change The recent inflation data from Emerging Asia have made for encouraging reading, with headline inflation falling in seven out of the nine countries to have published February data. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Consumer Prices (%, …
10th March 2023
Very weak Q4 figures The fourth quarter GDP figures published over the past few weeks made for grim reading. GDP contracted in around half of the countries covered by our Emerging Asia services. Only India, Indonesia and the Philippines recorded decent …
3rd March 2023
Malaysia announces modest fiscal tightening Malaysia today announced a modest tightening of fiscal policy for 2023, but the most eye-catching element of the budget was a significant increase in infrastructure spending. The budget deficit is projected to …
24th February 2023
Asia to dominate by 2050 We published our latest Long Run Outlook this week with detailed forecasts out to 2050 for 60 economies. They suggest that Emerging Asia will dominate the global economy in 2050. The region’s share of global GDP (measured at …
17th February 2023
Philippines is the outlier In most of the region inflationary pressures are continuing to ease and central banks are preparing to bring tightening cycles to an end. (See here .) A key exception is the Philippines, where a jump in headline inflation to a …
10th February 2023
Weak start to the year in Korea Recent economic data from Korea paint a depressing picture. GDP figures published late last month showed the economy contracted by 0.4% q/q at the end of 2022 – the third worst quarterly performance since the Asian …
3rd February 2023
More encouraging than it looks This week’s headlines suggest that Pakistan is in the midst of a full-blown crisis. On Monday the central bank hiked its main policy rate by a further 100bps. Two days later the cap limiting daily moves in the rupee was …
27th January 2023
Rebounding won An easing of inflation pressures in the US along with China’s reopening have provided a boost to Asian currencies over the past couple of months. The biggest rebound has been in the Korean won, which has now appreciated by 17% against the …
20th January 2023
Implications of a stronger recovery in China COVID-19 has spread through China much faster than we had expected, with one province reporting that 89% of the population has been infected with the virus. This is paving the way to a much earlier economic …
13th January 2023
Forecast change on China border reopening Tourism across Asia has rebounded strongly in recent months, with arrivals in most places now at around 45% of pre-crisis levels. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Tourist Arrivals (% of 2019 level) Sources: Refinitiv, …
6th January 2023
Recent trade data from Emerging Asia have been downbeat and, with the global economy heading for recession, worse is still to come. China, Taiwan, Korea and Singapore all reported big falls in exports in November. For the region as a whole, we estimate …
23rd December 2022
Tourism boost and risk of factory disruption Chinese authorities appear to have given up on efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 much earlier than we had previously anticipated. (See here .) We suspect that China’s economy will experience a …
16th December 2022
Inflation still rising in the Philippines The past week has brought mostly good news on the inflation front. Of the nine countries in the region to have reported November inflation figures, the y/y rate dropped or was stable in eight of them. (See Chart …
9th December 2022
Weak data, slowing inflation, dovish BoK A string of weak activity data, a sharp drop in inflation and dovish comments from the central bank support our view that the Bank of Korea’s tightening cycle is coming to an end soon. The final estimate of third …
2nd December 2022
Strike highlights need for labour market reform The costs of a strike by Korean truck drivers – the second this year – are starting to mount, with steel and cement producers reporting disruption. The Korean government estimated that the economic losses …
25th November 2022
Rebound in Asian currencies unlikely to last The rebound in Asian currencies triggered by the weaker-than-expected US CPI data for October already appears to be running out of steam. A number of currencies, including the won and the rupiah, have dropped …
18th November 2022
Below consensus growth for Taiwan in 2023 Surging demand for electronics products helped Taiwan’s economy sail through the pandemic. But with this tailwind now turning into a headwind, growth looks set to slow sharply. Export volumes have fallen back …
11th November 2022
Risks have been building for a while Commercial interest rates in Korea have continued to rise over the past week despite aggressive intervention by the authorities as they struggle to calm the markets. (See Chart 1.) While the recent jump in borrowing …
4th November 2022
What to expect in 2023 We published our latest Emerging Asia Economic Outlook this week, which contains our detailed forecasts. Here are three key calls from the report. Sharp slowdown ahead Growth across Emerging Asia looks set to slow sharply over the …
28th October 2022
Decent Q3 growth Korean GDP figures due on Thursday are likely to show that the economy held up reasonably well in the third quarter of the year. We have pencilled in growth of 0.4% q/q. While this would represent a slowdown compared with the 0.7% …
21st October 2022
Zero-COVID to hold back tourism recovery China’s 20 th Party Congress gets underway on 16 th October. With General Secretary Xi’s continued dominance in little doubt, it is unlikely to result in any substantial change in policy direction. This …
14th October 2022
BoK to take cautious approach The consensus is expecting the Bank of Korea (BoK) to increase its policy rate by 50bp at its scheduled meeting on Wednesday. But with the economy slowing sharply, we think a 25bp hike is more likely. A weakening currency …
7th October 2022
Ugly trade data, about to get worse The most recent trade data out of Asia have been very weak, and with the global economy heading for recession, we think the worst is still to come. There has been no shortage of bad news recently for the region’s …
30th September 2022
Inflation and currency key concerns for SBV Central banks stepped up tightening cycles across the region this week, with hikes in the Philippines, Indonesia (both 50bp) and Taiwan (12.5bp). There was also an unscheduled move from the central bank …
23rd September 2022
Policymakers worried by falling won The Korean won has continued to fall against the US dollar over the past week and is now at its lowest rate against the greenback since the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. It has fallen by 15% against the dollar since …
16th September 2022
Inflation to reach 7% later this year We are adjusting our inflation and policy rate forecasts for Indonesia in response to the recent fuel price hikes. The 30% increase in the price of gasoline and diesel that was announced earlier in the week is aimed …
9th September 2022
Inflation concerns easing Inflation and activity data published over the past few days have surprised to the downside, supporting our view that Korea’s tightening cycle will finish by the end of the year. Headline inflation in Korea fell back from 6.3% …
2nd September 2022
With this week’s flash PMIs from major economies signalling that demand is tailing off rapidly, the upcoming August trade data from Korea, due Thursday, will give a timely signal of how Asian exporters are faring. We had expected evidence of fading …
26th August 2022
A hike on Thursday due to inflation worries With inflation at a 24-year high, the Bank of Korea (BoK) looks certain to raise interest rates again at its meeting on Thursday. We have pencilled in another 25bp hike, which would take the policy rate to …
19th August 2022
A very weak Q2 Most countries in the region have now published second quarter growth figures for 2022, and the numbers have been generally disappointing. (See here .) In q/q terms, GDP contracted in the Philippines, China, Taiwan and Singapore. Korea and …
12th August 2022
Inflation the main concern for Thai policymakers Thailand is one of the few countries in the region not to have raised interest rates this year, but that looks set to change on Wednesday. We, along with the majority of other analysts, are expecting a 25bp …
5th August 2022
New president backs “Build, Build, Build” In his first State of the Nation address, the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., this week pledged to resume the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor, …
29th July 2022
Further tightening over the coming months We published our latest Emerging Asia Economic Outlook this week, which contains our detailed forecasts. Here are three key calls from the report. Key Call 1: Growth will slow GDP figures due over the coming …
22nd July 2022
Further tightening over the coming months Asian policymakers turned decidedly more hawkish this week, with the Bank of Korea raising interest rates by 50bp for the first time in its history on Wednesday. This was followed by unscheduled monetary …
15th July 2022
25bp or 50bp? The Bank of Korea (BoK) has raised interest rates by 25bp five times so far this cycle, and further hikes looked nailed on for the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday. But whereas the consensus is expecting the BoK to step up the pace of …
8th July 2022
How will the BoK respond to the weaker won? The Korean won remains under downward pressure. The currency has fallen by 4.6% against the greenback over the past month alone, and is down 8.3% since the start of the year (see Chart 1), making it the worst …
1st July 2022
How will the MAS respond? There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating. Figures published this week put inflation at a 10-year high of 5.6% y/y in May. Food and fuel prices have been key factors behind the increase, but the strong …
24th June 2022
Employment at record levels The Korean labour market is continuing to heat up, increasing the chances that the central bank (BoK) will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Data published on Wednesday show that total employment reached a …
17th June 2022
New BSP governor signals further hikes The incoming central bank governor in the Philippines, Felipe Medalla, this week in a Bloomberg interview all but confirmed that interest rates would be raised at the central bank’s next two meetings in June and …
10th June 2022
Thailand: rates unchanged on Wednesday GDP figures published from across Asia over the past few weeks confirm that Thailand’s recovery from the pandemic has been the slowest in the region. (See Chart 1.) A steady increase in tourism arrivals should …
2nd June 2022
Singapore inflation climbs higher Rising inflation and a strong economy have fuelled talk that monetary policy in Singapore will need to be tightened further. But we think the backdrop will have changed by the time the Monetary Authority of Singapore …
27th May 2022
China the exception China today cut interest rates, but the notable recent shift across the rest of the region has been an embrace of rate hikes. Central banks in India , the Philippines and Malaysia have all hiked for the first time this cycle in recent …
20th May 2022