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Korean trade data may get worse before they get better Growth in Korean trade in February masks underlying weakness. Trade with China shrank sharply due to disruption from the coronavirus, and there were few signs of strength elsewhere. Korean trade data …
2nd March 2020
Further signs that coronavirus is hitting industry Korean trade data for the first 20 days of February add to the evidence that factory closures in China are disrupting local industry. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good …
21st February 2020
Coronavirus to cause sharp slowdown in Thailand Figures published today reveal that Thailand’s economy was in a poor state, even before the coronavirus hit. With tourist arrivals collapsing and the disruption from factory closures in China likely to …
17th February 2020
Worse to come GDP growth in Malaysia slowed again in Q4 and the disruption to trade and tourism flows from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to cause a much sharper downturn this quarter. The Prime Minister’s recent pronouncement that the economy will …
12th February 2020
Some signs that coronavirus is hitting industry Korean trade data serve as a good bellwether for the rest of the region and figures for the first 10 days of February suggest that factory closures in China are disrupting regional industry. The timely …
11th February 2020
Timely data too early to show impact from coronavirus PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) and Korean trade data were mostly unchanged in January, but neither give a good indication of how the coronavirus has hit the regional economy most recently. With the …
3rd February 2020
Pick-up in growth unlikely to be sustained this year GDP growth picked up pace again in the final quarter of last year, but with the big boost from government spending likely to fade this year, we think this will be as good as it gets. Data published …
23rd January 2020
Gradual recovery to follow rebound in Q4 GDP growth rebounded more strongly than expected at the end of last year, and the economy should continue to stage a recovery over the coming quarters. The strong outturn in Q4 means we no longer think that the …
22nd January 2020
GDP growth in Taiwan continues to buck the regional trend Taiwan’s economy picked up steam again last quarter, and with the economy continuing to benefit from the trade war, we expect growth to remain strong throughout 2020. Data published today show that …
21st January 2020
PMI show further signs of improvement PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) improved slightly in December, which is consistent with our view that while regional growth remains weak, it has at least bottomed out. PMIs for December were released today for …
2nd January 2020
Industry remains weak, but some signs of improvement PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) were slightly more positive in November, suggesting that while industry remains weak it is starting to recover. The continued improvement in PMIs for China provides …
2nd December 2019
Export figures point to continued weakness in external demand Korean export growth in November was much weaker than expectations and suggests that external demand remains in the doldrums. Headline inflation was also weaker than expected last month. Korean …
Weak recovery ahead The revised estimate of Singapore GDP showed that the economy bounced back a little last quarter, but while we expect this recovery to continue in the quarters ahead, it is likely to be slow going. According to today’s revised …
21st November 2019
Weak growth to continue GDP growth in Thailand only managed to nudge up in Q3, and with global growth set to drag on exports we expect the economy to remain sluggish in the quarters ahead. Growth edged up to 2.4% y/y in Q3, from 2.3% in Q2. The outturn …
18th November 2019
Slowdown in growth has further to run GDP growth in Malaysia slowed in the third quarter, and we think the economy is likely to lose more steam in the quarters ahead due to headwinds from tighter fiscal policy and a weak external environment. GDP growth …
15th November 2019
Growth jumps, but this is not the start of a sustained rebound The jump in growth in Q3 was mainly driven by temporary factors relating to the delayed 2019 budget. Once this distortion drops out, we expect growth to settle at around 6.0% as a tough …
7th November 2019
Official figures overstate health of economy GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at this rate in the third quarter. Our Indonesia …
5th November 2019
Industry remains weak, but some hope for an improvement PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) softened slightly last month and continue to suggest that industry remains weak. The PMIs for China gave mixed signals, but on balance provide some hope for a …
1st November 2019
Sharp drop in exports not as bad as it seems Korean exports fell sharply again in y/y terms last month, but the sector is in better health than the headline data suggest. Meanwhile, Korea exited deflation in October and inflation should continue to rise …
Outperformance to continue Taiwan’s economy continued to perform strongly last quarter, thanks mainly to an acceleration in government spending and strong export growth. The outperformance of the economy is the main reason why we think the central bank …
31st October 2019
Slow recovery next year GDP growth was sluggish in Q3, but looser fiscal and monetary policy should help the economy to regain some momentum in the quarters ahead. With external headwinds set to remain, the rebound in growth is only likely to be gradual. …
24th October 2019
A weak quarter, but some signs of improvement more recently Downbeat trade data for Korea and weak regional manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP data for last quarter are likely to be subdued again in most places, but there were some signs of improvement …
1st October 2019
Price pressures to remain weak, but deflation will be temporary Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping further into negative territory in September, we don’t think there is much risk of a damaging period of prolonged deflation. Figures released …
Few signs of green shoots so far in Q3 Weak trade data for Korea and the weakness of regional manufacturing PMIs in August suggest that economic conditions failed to improve in the middle of this quarter. While we suspect that regional GDP growth has …
2nd September 2019
Weak growth to continue GDP figures released today for the second quarter show that growth in Thailand slowed sharply to an almost five-year low. With weak global demand and a downturn in the tourism sector likely to drag on growth prospects over the …
19th August 2019
Weakness to follow after resilient first half GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in Q2, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We are forecasting a renewed slowdown in the second half of this year, driven by weaker consumer spending and a …
16th August 2019
Weak growth to prompt more aggressive policy easing The continued weakness of growth means that the central bank will likely opt for a more aggressive 50bp policy rate cut this afternoon. And while growth should recover from here, don’t expect a strong …
8th August 2019
Growth to remain weaker than the official figures show GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at close to this rate in the second …
5th August 2019
July PMIs give slightly better news, but still point to weakness PMI readings for Emerging Asia were slightly more positive at the start of Q3, but the big picture is that they remain low by past standards and there are few signs of a meaningful …
1st August 2019
No sign of a turnaround Korea’s trade data suggest that a meaningful recovery in the external environment remained elusive at the start to the second half of the year, with weakness in the technology sector and slowing demand from China continuing to …
Q2 unlikely to mark the start of a strong recovery GDP growth in Taiwan rebounded strongly last quarter, thanks mainly to a surprise acceleration in export growth. But with headwinds to the economy mounting, we don’t expect the recovery to last. Figures …
31st July 2019
Growth unlikely to carry on climbing after Q2’s rebound The strength of growth in Q2 more than offset the contraction in Q1, but with the economy still likely to face large external headwinds in the second half of this year, a sustained upturn is …
25th July 2019
Slowest growth in a decade The advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP suggest the economy performed very poorly last quarter. Although the economy should start to pick up a little over the coming quarters, helped by looser fiscal and monetary policy, growth …
12th July 2019
Renewed drop in inflation to continue The renewed drop in inflation in June is likely to continue as the headline rate is dragged down by falling food and fuel price inflation, providing a green light for the central bank to cut rates in August. Today’s …
5th July 2019
June data point to a weak end to Q2 Very weak trade data for Korea and the fall in the manufacturing PMIs in June suggest that economic conditions deteriorated at the end of last quarter. After a weak Q1, GDP growth looks unlikely to have improved much, …
1st July 2019
Strong exports supporting growth Vietnam’s economy grew strongly in the second quarter of the year and the economy is likely to perform well over the coming year, helped by booming exports to the US. We have reservations about the reliability of Vietnam’s …
28th June 2019