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Economy continues to outperform, raising our GDP forecast Taiwan’s economy continued to outperform much of the rest of the world in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 3.3% y/y. With the virus eliminated at home and exports rebounding strongly, the …
30th October 2020
Korean GDP rebounded last quarter as exports bounced back strongly, and with the economic impact of the “second wave” fading and exports picking up further, the recovery is set to continue over the coming quarters. Data released today show GDP rose 1.9% …
27th October 2020
Electronics-driven export rebound picking up speed Strong export growth in the first 20 days of October was driven by buoyant foreign demand for electronics, and exports now look likely to provide a boost to y/y growth this quarter. Timely Korean trade …
21st October 2020
Economy recovering, monetary policy set to stay loose for an extended period The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left policy on hold today as advanced GDP data showed that the economy rebounded well in Q3. However, with GDP still well below its …
14th October 2020
Industry to maintain momentum PMI readings for Korea and Taiwan suggest industry in both countries picked up momentum last month, and we expect output to continue growing in the months ahead on the back of strong exports. PMIs for September were released …
5th October 2020
Export recovery to gradually continue Korean export values held steady in September at a touch below pre-crisis levels, and we expect gradual improvements in the months ahead. Korean trade data provide a good guide to the performance of exporters …
1st October 2020
Regional outperformer Vietnam’s economy rebounded in the third quarter and should continue to perform strongly over the coming year. A surge in exports to the US, aggressive rate cuts by the central bank and the government’s success in containing the …
29th September 2020
Recovery in external sector picks up pace Exports rebounded to pre-crisis levels for the first time in the first 20 days of September and, while we don’t necessarily think export values will keep going from strength to strength, today’s data add weight to …
21st September 2020
Slow export recovery continues Korean exports rose in levels terms in the first 10 days of September and, with trading-partner economies still getting back on their feet, we expect further gradual improvements in external demand. The timely nature of the …
11th September 2020
Gradual export recovery to continue Korean export values rose again in August and we expect a continued recovery in external demand to drive further small improvements in the months ahead. Korean trade data provide a good guide to the performance of …
1st September 2020
Manufacturing sector improving, continued slow recovery ahead PMI readings suggest that manufacturing conditions generally improved in Asia last month, and we expect more gradual improvements as the external environment slowly recovers. PMIs for August …
Gradual recovery continues While exports dropped back a little in the first 20 days of August, we suspect this was mainly due to the impact of widespread flooding at the start of the month. Looking at the data more recently, they suggest a continued …
21st August 2020
Massive slump in Q2, tourism to hold up recovery The drop in Thai GDP last quarter was not as huge as some other economies in the region, but Thailand’s dependence on tourism will weigh on the recovery in the quarters ahead and means the economic outlook …
17th August 2020
Malaysian economy rebounding strongly after massive slump in Q2 Malaysia’s economy contracted by much more than we had expected in Q2, but monthly GDP data suggest that most of the slump had unwound by the end of the quarter. We think the economy will …
14th August 2020
Possible signs that recovery in external demand is faltering The unexpected slump in Korean exports in the first 10 days of August could just be volatility in the data, but a reversal in the performance of exports to the US suggests the fall at least …
11th August 2020
Rebound already well underway after historic slump Revised GDP figures confirm that Singapore’s economy collapsed in Q2, but the message from the more-timely data is that a strong recovery is already underway. We expect this rebound to continue, …
Slow and fitful recovery to follow unprecedented slump The Philippines experienced what is likely to be one of the biggest falls in output anywhere in Q2. A failure to contain the virus, continued restrictions to movement and inadequate policy support …
6th August 2020
A slow recovery after historic drop in GDP Economic activity in Indonesia collapsed in the second quarter. A failure to contain the virus effectively and inadequate policy support mean the recovery is likely to be one of the slowest in the region. Figures …
5th August 2020
More signs of recovery in July PMIs for Emerging Asia and Korean trade data suggest that the recovery in economic activity across the region is picking up some momentum. That said, the data do not point to the kind of strong rebound observed in China, and …
3rd August 2020
Economy outperforms, raising our 2020 growth forecast The 0.7% y/y drop in GDP last quarter was Taiwan’s worst performance since the Global Financial Crisis, but it still represents an unusually strong performance given what’s happening in the rest of the …
31st July 2020
Korean GDP shrank sharply in Q2 on the back of the largest drop in exports since 1963, but output probably bottomed out in the middle of the quarter. The recovery, which is already underway, is set to be slow going as the external environment only …
23rd July 2020
More signs of recovery Korean trade data for the first 20 days of July suggest that the recovery in exports has continued this month. But the initial rebound has still been weak and the recovery in external demand in the quarters ahead is also likely to …
21st July 2020
Sharp contraction, fiscal spending to support recovery Singapore’s economy contracted by the most on record in Q2, but with many restrictions to economic activity now lifted and strong government support, output is set to rebound over the second half of …
14th July 2020
Tentative signs of further recovery Korean trade data for the first ten days of this month suggest that the recovery in external demand gained a little momentum at the start of July. This should carry on over the coming months, albeit slowly. The timely …
13th July 2020
Exports bottom out, slow recovery ahead Korean export values nudged up very slightly in June, after collapsing in April and May, but while external demand is probably now past the worst, it is only likely to recover slowly in the coming months. Korean …
1st July 2020
Manufacturing sector rebounding, but slow recovery ahead The PMIs point to an improvement in manufacturing conditions last month, although many readings are still low and suggest that overall manufacturers continue to struggle. PMIs for June were released …
Economy to outperform after strong Q2 performance Vietnam’s economy slowed sharply in the second quarter, but the numbers were stronger than expected, and put the economy on course to be one of the few countries in the world to grow this year. The fact …
29th June 2020
More signs of recovery Korean trade data for the first 20 days of June suggest that the slump in exports is probably past the worst. But the recovery in external demand in the quarters ahead is likely to be a protracted one. The timely nature of the …
22nd June 2020
Pockets of export sector benefiting from pandemic demand The strength of the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors has helped Singaporean exports to outperform and is one reason why we are revising up our GDP growth forecast for 2020 from -8.0%, to …
17th June 2020
Signs of a nascent recovery Korean trade data for the first ten days of June suggest that the external environment improved slightly at the start of this month. We suspect this will mark the start of a long and slow recovery. The timely nature of the …
11th June 2020
Further fall in exports probably marks the bottom Korean export values sank further in May after collapsing in April, and while this is likely to mark the bottom, external demand is only likely to recover very slowly in the coming months. Korean trade …
1st June 2020
Recovery in industry set to be slow We suspect that PMI readings do not accurately reflect the change in industry conditions last month, but they are still indicative of the fact that output remains very depressed. PMIs for May were released today for six …
Pharma won’t save economy in Q2 A very strong performance from the biomedical manufacturing sector meant that Singapore’s economy contracted much less in Q1 than previously thought. But with a stringent lockdown in place at home and demand cratering …
26th May 2020
No signs of improvement Korean trade data for the first 20 days of May show no signs of a turnaround in exports despite the easing of lockdowns in many trading partners. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good bellwether for the …
21st May 2020
Massive slump in Q2, slower recovery than elsewhere thereafter Figures released today show the slump in Thailand’s economy was less severe than expected last quarter, but this will provide little comfort, Q2 data are set be much worse. Thailand’s economy …
18th May 2020
Reopening will not prevent massive slump in Q2 Malaysia Q1 GDP figures were slightly better than expected but will provide little comfort, with the economy set to contract much more sharply this quarter as depressed domestic demand and an extremely weak …
13th May 2020
Trade data show no sign of a turnaround Korean trade data for the first ten days of May show that exporters have taken a massive hit from lockdowns across the world. This bodes poorly for exporters across the rest of the region too. The timely nature of …
11th May 2020
GDP contracts in Q1, much worse to come in Q2 The larger-than-expected contraction in the Philippines economy in Q1 suggests that the lockdown there is having a severe impact on economic activity and that growth is likely to be even worse than we feared …
7th May 2020
Economy to contract in Q2 GDP growth in Indonesia held up better than most in Q1, but we doubt this resilience will last. Indonesia was later than other countries to lockdown its economy, meaning more of the hit will have fallen in the second quarter. We …
5th May 2020
Industry conditions unlikely to improve much soon The manufacturing PMIs for Asia sank sharply in April and are unlikely to have bottomed out yet in many places. Any recovery in industry thereafter is set to be very slow going. PMIs for April were …
4th May 2020
Slumping external demand taking its toll Korean export values fell sharply in April and with global demand collapsing, trade is likely to remain very weak. Indeed, we wouldn’t be surprised if the May data worsened further still. Korean trade data provide …
1st May 2020
GDP contracts in Q1, much worse to come in Q2 Taiwan’s economy contracted by 1.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, and things are likely to get much worse before they get better. Despite containing the virus at home, a slump in global growth will …
30th April 2020
Economy slumps, worse to come Economic activity in Korea fell by the most since 2008 last quarter and unfortunately there is much worse to come. With the external environment weighing heavily on export demand, a much deeper contraction is likely this …
23rd April 2020
Trade data beginning to reflect gloomy outlook Korean trade data for the first 20 days of April suggest that slumping external demand is now weighing heavily on Korean exports. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good bellwether for …
21st April 2020
Korean export resilience won’t last Korean trade figures held up surprising well in March but given collapsing global demand this is unlikely to continue. We expect a sharp contraction in export values in the next few months. Korean trade data provide a …
1st April 2020
Industry conditions set to deteriorate further The manufacturing PMIs for Asia suggest that industry has been hit hard by the coronavirus, and we suspect the readings will deteriorate much further in the next couple of months. PMIs for March were released …
The worst is yet to come The sharp contraction in Singapore’s economy in Q1 was deeper than expected, and with global growth collapsing, the worst is yet to come. Given today’s outturn, we are lowering our 2020 GDP growth forecast from -3.0% to -3.5%. …
26th March 2020
Trade resilience unlikely to last There are signs that trade has recovered somewhat from the shock of Chinese factory shutdowns, with both exports and imports bouncing back over the first 20 days of March. But with the world economy set to contract …
23rd March 2020
Some signs that China disruption is easing Korean trade data for the first 10 days of March suggest that the disruption from factory closures in China to regional industry eased recently, although both imports and exports remain depressed. The timely …
11th March 2020
PMIs likely understate weakness of industry PMI readings for Asia are likely to have understated the disruption to industry from factory shutdowns in China, and the recent rise in coronavirus cases outside of China means that worse may be yet to come. …
2nd March 2020