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Exports close to their peak Korean export values look set to dip in June after a record high in May. We suspect goods export values have peaked. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good bellwether for the health of the export sector …
21st June 2021
Another strong month Korean export values dipped a little at the start of June after a record high in May, but external shipments remain well above their pre-crisis level and should continue to boost GDP growth. The timely nature of the Korean trade data …
11th June 2021
Exports on renewed upwards path Korean export values surged to an all-time high in May, suggesting that the external sector will drive GDP higher once again this quarter. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good bellwether for the …
1st June 2021
Surge in industry softens slightly, but sector still going strong The May PMIs softened slightly but were still mainly consistent with improvements in manufacturing sectors. Strong global demand for electronics will continue to support output over the …
Recovery to resume at a decent pace in the second half of 2021 Revised Q1 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought at the start of 2021. While a resurgence in virus cases is likely to drag on GDP this quarter, this …
25th May 2021
Exports on renewed upwards path Korean export values are likely to surge to an all-time high this month. A buoyant external sector looks set to prop up GDP again this quarter. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good bellwether for the …
21st May 2021
Thailand set to go from bad to worse Thailand’s GDP inched up in Q1, despite a renewed outbreak of the virus. But output is unlikely to hold up this quarter. We expect the economy to shrink sharply as a further surge in new COVID-19 cases pushes the …
17th May 2021
GDP rebounds, consumption set to remain a drag Malaysia’s economy saw an export-driven rebound of 2.7% q/q in Q1, despite a partial lockdown midway through the quarter. But a resurgence in virus cases and the recent reimposition of containment measures …
11th May 2021
GDP to contract in Q2 after recovery stalls in Q1 The Philippines economy barely improved in Q1 and the reimposition of strict containment measures is likely to see output shrink this quarter. Data released today show that the contraction in GDP eased …
Indonesia’s economy struggled to gain any momentum in the first quarter of the year and a failure to contain the virus will hold back the recovery in the quarters ahead. Today’s figures show the economy contracted by 0.7% y/y in Q1, which was close to …
5th May 2021
Buoyant export growth to continue Korean export values were well above pre-pandemic levels in April, and with semiconductor demand set to remain elevated, at least in the short term, exports are likely to stay strong. The timely nature of the Korean trade …
3rd May 2021
Industry going from strength to strength The April PMI readings suggest that manufacturing improved further in most places in Asia after a strong Q1. Global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector over the next few months. PMIs for …
Taiwan has been the star performer of the pandemic, with figures today showing the economy grew by 8.2% y/y in the first quarter of the year. Surging demand for semiconductors and booming investment mean growth should remain strong over the coming …
30th April 2021
Korea’s economic recovery regained momentum in Q1, adding weight to our above-consensus growth forecast of 5% for 2021. Loose fiscal policy and strong export demand should continue to support the recovery over the coming quarters. GDP grew by 1.6% q/q in …
27th April 2021
Exports to remain elevated Korean export values look set to remain well above pre-crisis levels in April, and a buoyant external sector will continue to prop up GDP even as the virus weighs on domestic consumption. The timely nature of the Korean trade …
21st April 2021
Slight dip in exports no cause for concern Korean export values dipped at the start of April, but we wouldn’t read too much into it – the 10-day data can be volatile and, in any case, exports remain well above their pre-crisis level. The timely nature of …
12th April 2021
Strong first quarter for industry March PMI readings suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places in Asia. Global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for the next few months. PMIs for March were released …
1st April 2021
Recovery already back on track Vietnam’s economy lost a little momentum in the first quarter due to a renewed virus outbreak, but with the latest wave quashed and most restrictions now lifted, the economy should bounce back strongly over the coming …
29th March 2021
Exports to drive renewed pickup in growth this quarter Korea’s external sector looks to have had its strongest quarter since 2018 and with semiconductor demand set to remain elevated in the short term, exports are likely to continue to provide an …
22nd March 2021
Korean exports will boost growth again this quarter Korean trade data suggest that the external sector will have its strongest quarter since 2018. With semiconductor demand set to remain elevated, at least in the short term, exports are likely to continue …
11th March 2021
Strong start to 2021 gathers momentum February PMI readings suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places in Asia. Global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. PMIs for February …
2nd March 2021
Exports to boost growth again in Q1 Korean export values were close to a record high last month, and the external sector should provide another boost to GDP growth this quarter. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good bellwether for …
1st March 2021
Korean exports to remain buoyant in next few months Korean exports are performing very strongly so far this month, even accounting for the seasonal distortions from the Lunar New Year. This strength is likely to continue in the short term at least, as …
22nd February 2021
Recovery to continue at decent pace in 2021 Revised Q4 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy rebounded more strongly than first thought at the end of 2020. Buoyant global demand for electronics and pharmaceuticals and strong fiscal support should see the …
15th February 2021
Tourism slump to drag on Thai recovery Thailand’s economic recovery slowed in the final quarter of last year, and the worsening prospects for the tourism industry mean we are cutting our GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 6.0% to 4.5%. Today’s figures show …
Economy set to backslide more sharply in Q1 Malaysia’s economy shrank in Q4 due to a large second wave of the virus and is likely to have contracted much more sharply at the start of 2021. The economy should soon begin to recover again now that the …
11th February 2021
The contraction in Indonesian GDP eased slightly again at the end of last year, but a failure to control the virus means the recovery is likely to be slow and fitful in the quarters ahead. Figures published today show that Indonesian GDP contracted by …
5th February 2021
Inflation to stall central bank easing Inflation broke through the upper boundary of the central Bank’s target range for the first time in two years in January and is likely to lead the Bank to pause its easing cycle. But with price pressures set to fall …
Exports to remain elevated Korean exports remain elevated at the start of this year, buoyed by shipments of electronics and autos. While some of this strength may fade later in the year, Korea’s external sector is still set for another decent performance …
1st February 2021
Strong start to 2021 to continue PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. PMIs for January were …
Figures released today show Taiwan’s economy continued to outperform last quarter, thanks to continued strong demand for the island’s exports. Although the economy will continue to slow in q/q terms over the coming year, we are raising our forecasts for …
29th January 2021
Recovery will continue to disappoint The Philippines saw another lacklustre rebound in GDP in Q4 and big improvements will be hard to come by in the quarters ahead. Output is unlikely to regain its pre-crisis level until the end of 2021. The economy grew …
28th January 2021
Korea’s recovery lost a little steam last quarter as a third wave of infections weighed on private consumption, but with cases now on a downward trend, the recovery should regain momentum over the coming quarters. Data released today show GDP rose 1.1% …
26th January 2021
Korean export recovery to remain strong Korean exports remained elevated at the start of the year. While some of this strength may fade in the coming quarters, Korea’s external sector is still set for another decent performance in 2021. The timely nature …
21st January 2021
Korean exports to remain elevated Korean trade data suggest that strong export growth continued at the start of the year and reaffirm our view that exports will remain an important support to recoveries in Korea and across Asia. The timely nature of the …
11th January 2021
Recovery to continue at decent pace in 2021 Advanced GDP data show that Singapore’s economy continued to rebound at the end of 2020 – buoyant global demand for electronics and pharmaceuticals, strong fiscal support, and widespread vaccination should see …
4th January 2021
Strong end to 2020 to continue into this year Manufacturing PMIs and Korean trade data suggest that regional industry and exports saw another sharp improvement at the end of the year. While some of this strength may fade in the coming quarters, we still …
Strong Korean export growth to continue Korean exports remain remarkably strong, despite renewed waves of the virus at home and abroad, and we expect this to continue over the coming months. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good …
21st December 2020
Korean export recovery to remain strong Korean exports were buoyant in the first ten days of December, with no sign that renewed waves of the virus are weighing on external demand. We expect exports to remain strong in the coming months. The timely nature …
11th December 2020
Korean export outperformance to continue Korean export growth continued to gather momentum in November and is set to remain strong in the months ahead, buoyed by foreign demand for electronics. Korean trade data provide a good guide to the performance of …
1st December 2020
Strong industry performance to continue PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing conditions improved significantly in November. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector over the coming months. PMIs for November …
Exports maintain strong momentum Buoyant foreign demand for electronics drove strong export growth over the first 20 days of November and this should remain the case over the coming months. Timely Korean trade data are a good bellwether for the health of …
23rd November 2020
Economy bouncing back strongly The upward revision to Singapore’s Q3 GDP figures shows that the economy has rebounded strongly, and we expect the recovery to continue at a decent pace on the back of strong fiscal support and buoyant global demand for …
External sector remains in doldrums, tourism dependence to delay recovery GDP figures published today show that the worst is now over for Thailand’s economy, but its dependence on tourism means it is likely to experience one of the slowest recoveries in …
16th November 2020
Strong recovery to continue next year Malaysia’s economy rebounded strongly in Q3 and while a second wave of infections will weigh on growth in Q4, we don’t think it will be long before the recovery is back on track. Malaysia’s economy rebounded by 18.2% …
13th November 2020
Korean export recovery to remain strong Korean exports remained buoyant in the first ten days of November and there are few signs that large second waves of the virus are weighing on demand for Korean exports. We expect continued strong export growth in …
11th November 2020
Weak recovery to lose momentum The Philippines saw a lacklustre rebound in GDP in Q3 and improvements are likely to be harder to come by in the quarters ahead. Output is unlikely to regain its pre-crisis level until late next year. The contraction in GDP …
10th November 2020
Signs of recovery, but a long road ahead The y/y contraction in Indonesian GDP eased in Q3, and the economy is likely to experience a slow recovery over the coming quarters. Indonesian GDP contracted by 3.5% y/y last quarter. (See Chart 1.) This is an …
5th November 2020
Industry to maintain momentum PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing conditions improved further in October, and strong global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector over the coming months. PMIs for October were released …
2nd November 2020
Korean exports likely to be resilient in months ahead Korean export values picked up to above pre-crisis levels in October and grew in working-day adjusted y/y terms for the first time since late-2018. While large second waves of the virus across the …