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A further pickup in exports drove continued strong Taiwanese GDP growth in Q1, but we expect the economy to lose momentum over the coming quarters as the external sector weakens and COVID-19 weighs on consumer spending. GDP grew by 1.56% q/q in the first …
28th April 2022
A rebound is already underway following the economic hit from Omicron, which today’s provisional Q1 GDP figures show was relatively mild. But, after an initial pick up in Q2, we expect the recovery to slow as headwinds to growth mount. That should see the …
26th April 2022
Tough times ahead for Asia’s export-focussed industry While Korean trade data show exports remained buoyant, regional Manufacturing PMIs point to lost momentum. With headwinds to export-focussed industry mounting, there are tougher times ahead. March PMIs …
1st April 2022
Economy resilient but headwinds growing Vietnam’s economy recorded solid growth in the first quarter of the year as the economy brushed off the impact of the Omicron wave, but while we expect the recovery to continue over the coming months, new headwinds …
29th March 2022
Strong industry looks set to offset some of the Omicron hit February Manufacturing PMIs and Korean trade data show that regional industry had another strong month. This should offset some of the Omicron-related weakness in service sectors this quarter. …
1st March 2022
After a strong rebound in Q4, the pace of Thailand’s economic recovery over the coming year will largely depend on how quickly tourists return. While we expect a sustained recovery in the tourism sector to get underway this year, arrivals will still be …
21st February 2022
Omicron is likely to prove only a small stumbling block on the road to recovery after the strong growth of late 2021. We still expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic trend later this year. The second estimate of Q4 GDP shows that output grew at a rapid …
17th February 2022
Recovery to continue after strong Q4, but policy rate hikes still unlikely Malaysia’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter and, despite headwinds from Omicron, should continue to recover throughout 2022. The 6.6% q/q expansion in Q4 more than reversed …
11th February 2022
Indonesia’s economy rebounded strongly in the final quarter of last year, but the recovery is now entering a more difficult phase. Omicron will act as a small obstacle in the first quarter. But a bigger drag will come from falling commodity prices and …
7th February 2022
Industry will be kept busy by order backlogs January Manufacturing PMIs suggest that regional industry remains in rude health after a very strong end to last year. While there are signs that producers are having some success in tackling large backlogs of …
3rd February 2022
GDP growth in Taiwan rebounded last quarter on the back of a recovery in consumer spending, and we estimate the economy ended the year around 4% above its pre-virus trend. Growth is set to slow over the coming quarters on the back of weaker exports, while …
27th January 2022
Fast growth won’t persuade central bank to start tightening While an Omicron wave means the economy’s continued strong performance in Q4 is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, we think growth will pick up again before long. That said, the overall …
While Omicron means that the strong GDP growth recorded in Q4 2021 is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, the recovery should be back on track before long. With the economic outlook still upbeat, the Bank of Korea is set to continue tightening over the …
25th January 2022
Another record month, exports to stay elevated in near term Korean export values surged to record highs in November helped by temporary factors but also strong underlying growth. Exports should remain elevated for at least the next few months, helped by a …
1st December 2021
Post-Delta recovery has further to run November Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the rebound in industry from the Delta wave in South East Asia continued last month, and we suspect it has further to run. The November PMIs released today for eight economies …
Stop-start recovery to continue Korea’s economy is likely to have already rebounded from the downbeat October revealed in activity data today. But prospects for continued improvements have diminished, as a resurgence in virus cases pushes back the …
30th November 2021
Recovery to pick up pace again Revised Q3 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought last quarter, and while containment measures mean the recovery is unlikely to have gained much momentum so far this quarter, a gradual …
24th November 2021
Exports set to see a strong end to the year Korean export values saw continued strength in the first 20 days of November and should remain elevated in the coming months as exporters work through large backlogs of unmet orders. The timely nature of the …
22nd November 2021
Economy to rebound in Q4, but recovery will slow thereafter Thai GDP shrank in the third quarter after the government tightened restrictions and, while the economy should bounce back strongly in the fourth quarter, the speed of the recovery beyond the end …
15th November 2021
Economy already rebounding strongly after tough third quarter Malaysia’s economy shrank further in Q3 but was already rebounding sharply by the end of the quarter. With vaccinations high, virus cases down and restrictions being eased, this rebound will …
12th November 2021
Strong growth likely again in Q4, but recovery has a long way to go Q3 GDP data were much stronger than expected and output is set to jump again in the fourth quarter following a sharp drop in virus cases and the further easing of restrictions. That said, …
9th November 2021
Indonesia’s economy only shrank slightly last quarter as exports offset much of the hit from a huge outbreak of COVID-19, and with restrictions being relaxed and virus cases now very low, we expect GDP to bounce back strongly in the final quarter. That …
5th November 2021
Exports to hold up well in the coming months After another strong month in October, Korean export values are set to remain elevated as high demand for electronics and petroleum products offsets troubles in the auto sector. The timely nature of the Korean …
1st November 2021
Supply backlogs will take time to clear following recovery from Delta wave While October Manufacturing PMIs point to a strong rise in manufacturing output, industry is likely to be working through huge backlogs of orders for many months to come and …
Taiwan’s economy rebounded last quarter but by much less than expected due to a further fall in consumption. But with virus cases now very low and the vaccine rollout gathering momentum, we expect GDP growth to accelerate in the near term. Figures …
29th October 2021
While Korea’s recovery lost some momentum last quarter as the virus weighed on growth, the economy should pick up pace again this quarter as high vaccination levels allow the rolling back of containment measures. The Bank of Korea is unlikely to be …
26th October 2021
Low core inflation will keep the MAS on hold in 2022 While inflation in Singapore is set to rise further over the next few months, both the headline and core rate should moderate in 2022 to well within the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) comfort …
25th October 2021
Exports climb ever higher Korean export values continue to climb in October driven by both rising prices and growth in underlying volumes. The strength of the external sector adds weight to our view that the economy will expand faster, and the central …
21st October 2021
Few signs of disruption to exports Korean export values remained close to an all-time high in September and look to have provided a decent boost to growth over the quarter as a whole. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good bellwether …
1st October 2021
Some improvements, but Delta disruption still evident While regional PMIs showed that the disruption from large virus waves in the region is easing somewhat, unmet orders continue to pile up, meaning that the resulting shortages further down supply chains …
Huge hit to growth, but the worst is now over GDP data reveal that Vietnam paid a heavy economic price in efforts to control the virus this quarter, but monthly activity data at least suggest that the worst is over and that a recovery is now underway. The …
29th September 2021
Few signs of exports softening Korean export values are set to have another strong month in September. Large backlogs of orders are likely to keep exporters busy for many months to come. The timely nature of the Korean trade data makes them a good …
23rd September 2021
While the spike in August inflation in the Philippines makes the central bank’s (BSP) policy decision this month an even closer call, the worsening outlook for the economy means we are sticking with our non-consensus view of a 25bp cut on 23 rd September. …
7th September 2021
Exports pushing upwards again but fresh surge unlikely Having flattened off in previous months, exports saw a renewed rise in August. While this is unlikely to mark the start of another surge, we still expect exports to remain elevated over the coming …
1st September 2021
Signs of virus disruption hitting production further afield Falling output indices in Korea and Taiwan suggest that the virus disruption in South East Asia is reverberating across the region. The end of supply chain shortages continues to slip further out …
Exports continue to hold up well, no clear signs of virus disruption to trade Korean export values look set to hold steady at elevated levels in August. With few signs of a drag from virus disruptions, the levelling off in exports probably instead …
23rd August 2021
Economy still on the rocks, despite surprise expansion in Q2 The surprise rise in Thai Q2 GDP is unlikely to be repeated this quarter as cases surge and the vaccine rollout makes only slow progress. The tourism sector is still on its knees, meaning any …
16th August 2021
Weakness to continue, but only in the short term Malaysia’s economy shrank by less than most had expected last quarter and while a further worsening in the virus situation means the immediate outlook is poor, rapid progress on vaccination has set the …
13th August 2021
Prospects for recovery diminishing after contraction in Q2 The Philippines’ chances of a strong economic rebound from the contraction recorded in Q2 are looking slim given the new surge in virus cases and the reimposition of containment measures. The …
10th August 2021
Indonesia’s economy is struggling badly, with Q2 GDP data showing that the recovery lost some momentum even before the latest surge in virus cases, which will have thrown the economy back into contraction in Q3. GDP grew by 7.1% y/y last quarter, compared …
5th August 2021
After dropping back to just within the central bank’s target range for the first time this year, headline inflation in the Philippines is set to continue falling in the coming months. This will open the door for the Bank to loosen policy further to …
Exports are levelling off, but few signs of a pullback yet July data add to evidence that Korean exports are plateauing, after reaching very high levels. While we expect some softening ahead as final demand weakens a touch, a sharp pullback in exports is …
2nd August 2021
Increasingly fraught industry conditions The July PMIs for Emerging Asia point to sharp contractions in manufacturing in those places worst affected by the virus. With outbreaks likely to remain a key headwind for months to come, the rapid growth in …
Taiwan’s economy only contracted slightly last quarter despite a major COVID outbreak, as strong exports cushioned the blow. Large backlogs of orders should keep exports elevated which, alongside a recovery in private consumption, will set the scene for a …
30th July 2021
Korea’s recovery looks set to continue in the quarters ahead after GDP rose further above its pre-crisis level in Q2. Provided the economy proves relatively resilient to the latest wave of the virus, as we expect, a rate hike from the Bank of Korea is …
27th July 2021
Exports flattening off at a high level July data add to evidence that Korean exports are starting to plateau, after reaching very high levels. We expect some softening ahead as supply chain shortages bite and final demand weakens a touch. The timely …
21st July 2021
Recovery to get quickly back on track The economy stumbled in Q2 after the government reimposed restrictions in response to a spike in virus cases, but with new infections down and the government rolling back containment measures, the recovery should …
14th July 2021
Exports strong but close to peak After a strong end to the month, Korean export values reached a fresh all-time high in June. But with some signs external demand is levelling off and semiconductor shortages are biting, we suspect goods export values are …
1st July 2021
Industry conditions looking less rosy The June PMIs dropped back as virus outbreaks and supply chains issues created mounting headwinds for industry. With neither issue likely to be resolved soon, the rapid growth in industry over the past few quarters …
Virus outbreak taking its toll Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks continuing, the economy is …
29th June 2021