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The real-time economic and market disruption from the coronavirus means that much of the backward-looking data released during the past month offers little insight into current developments in the world economy. Accordingly, this publication will now …
13th March 2020
The new coronavirus has reshaped the global economic outlook for at least the next couple of quarters. From what data are available, it looks like the hit has been big enough for global GDP to contract this quarter. So, where the euro-zone crisis, China …
13th February 2020
Our estimates of Q4 GDP based on national monthly data and surveys imply that global growth slowed from 3.1% to about 2.6% in quarter-on-quarter annualised terms. But we suspect that this will prove to be the low point before a gradual recovery begins. …
14th January 2020
Now that all major economies have released their Q3 national accounts, it is clear that the world economy pulled off a third consecutive quarter of around 3% annualised growth. (See Chart 1.) And over the past six weeks or so, there has been mounting …
6th December 2019
Given Q3 national accounts data from early-reporting countries and monthly data from other economies, it looks like world GDP growth actually picked up a touch last quarter to just over 3% annualised. And there have been some encouraging signs about the …
8th November 2019
Available data suggest that world GDP growth was stable at around 3% annualised in Q3, which is below the ten-year average of 3.5% but stronger than the 2.5% pace recorded in the second half of last year. (See Chart 1.) Growth looks to have accelerated in …
10th October 2019
Consumer spending continues to be a relative bright spot in the global economy. Spending growth picked up to a healthy 2.9% quarterly annualised in the advanced economies in Q2 (see Chart 1), reflecting marked improvements in the US and Japan. But the …
12th September 2019
Sentiment regarding the near-term prospects for the global economy has soured over the past week or two, triggered in part by the escalation of the US-China trade war. Indeed, there are increasing signs – such as the slowdown in investment growth in many …
8th August 2019
The past month has brought evidence of a continued slowdown in global growth and this weakness now seems to be spreading to labour markets. While advanced economy employment growth held up very well during the initial stages of the slowdown, it has now …
5th July 2019