Global growth may have troughed

Our estimates of Q4 GDP based on national monthly data and surveys imply that global growth slowed from 3.1% to about 2.6% in quarter-on-quarter annualised terms. But we suspect that this will prove to be the low point before a gradual recovery begins. There are signs that previous policy loosening in the US is boosting activity there and several Emerging Markets – most notably India – are also set to experience a policy-fuelled revival. Some of the most reliable leading indicators of global activity support the view that a turning point is near. World trade volumes rose in October and the recent pick-up in export orders and the capacity utilisation of air freight bode well for early 2020. Meanwhile, although the global manufacturing PMI fell slightly in December, it still suggests that the contraction in world industrial production is coming to an end.