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Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon technologies are likely to see higher investment and, ultimately, …
3rd October 2024
The trouble with European green policy Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness , published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. There were a couple of key points of discussion. First, Mr Draghi emphasised the …
30th September 2024
Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of academics and policymakers on carbon offsets, CBAM, and US …
26th September 2024
Our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes continued to rise in August to a new record high. Given that the EU tariffs have so far barely made a dent into China’s electric vehicle exports, and the fact that US and Canada tariffs will only …
20th September 2024
New data released in the past week show that global greenhouse gas emissions rose by almost 2% y/y in 2023. Most of this increase was driven by growth in China’s emissions as its economy recovered from pandemic-related disruptions. Looking ahead, we …
12th September 2024
Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic weakness. As long as the process is gradual, this …
3rd September 2024
Canada’s tariffs on China’s electric vehicles Canada recently took a leaf out of the US trade policy playbook (see here ) by announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). We think that the macroeconomic impact of the tariffs on China …
30th August 2024
China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way for the US and its allies to shore up their own …
21st August 2024
China’s electric vehicle exports rose strongly in July despite EU tariffs coming into force. This, alongside the continued surge in battery exports, lifted our measure of China’s green export volumes to a record high. The US tariffs on Chinese-made green …
20th August 2024
Labour puts wind in the sails of renewable rollout The new UK Labour government took swift action on climate policy this month on two fronts . First, the additional planning restrictions that applied to onshore wind projects in England have now been …
31st July 2024
The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is over, growth will likely remain above the historic …
We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric vehicle (EV) sector. We expect that both supply and …
25th July 2024
The electricity blackouts that have blighted Egypt this summer may be nearing an end. But in the absence of new major gas discoveries, in the longer run rising energy demand will result in renewed balance of payments problems from higher imports or will …
23rd July 2024
Increases in solar panel and battery exports propelled our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes to a record high in June. Given the rapid expansion in Chinese manufacturing capacity, the large wedge between export values and volumes will …
22nd July 2024
The ~10% fall in EU carbon prices since the end of May has mirrored a similar-sized fall in European natural gas prices, and we forecast both to fall by a further 25-30% by year-end. That said, the fundamentals still point to large gains in the EU carbon …
17th July 2024
Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power. But hydrogen is not the best option in many …
10th July 2024
The UK offers a microcosm of green fiscal issues The issue of paying for the green transition has been a recurring theme in the run-up to the forthcoming UK election; the watering down of Labour’s flagship climate policy earlier this year, which had …
28th June 2024
A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again . But while he could deal another blow to the …
25th June 2024
The continued divergence between export values and export volumes of the “New Three” underlines the downward pressure on prices from the rapid expansion in manufacturing capacity in China. Meanwhile, as the EU and US impose greater tariffs on Chinese-made …
20th June 2024
The tightening of fiscal constraints is putting pressure on politicians to pare back green investment ambitions. But kicking the fiscal can down the road on measures that could accelerate the green transition will probably lead to greater macroeconomic …
18th June 2024
China’s rapid uptake of clean power means that it is on track to overachieve on its target of reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. That said, the pace of decline will be slow at first, not least because it will probably take time for …
13th June 2024
The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a transition fuel means that it will peak a few years later around …
12th June 2024
Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully open up the energy sector to private investment and think …
10th June 2024
A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so assessing any potential impacts on commodity prices is …
6th June 2024
The US puts up trade barriers, will Europe follow? The US announced that it is ratcheting up tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels. We covered the announcement and its implications across our Climate, Global, …
31st May 2024
Whilst export values of the “New Three” fell for the sixth consecutive month in y/y terms in April, export volumes remained close to their record peak. Meanwhile, the sharp drop-off in China’s exports of solar panels to India following the re-tightening …
20th May 2024
Detailed state, regional and provincial level data for the US, China, Canada, and the UK. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart or table. If …
Curated, interactive, and customisable data and charts designed to make your climate reporting easier and faster. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right …
Explore alternative scenarios of the long-term drivers of emissions to visualise risks to your strategies and asset holdings. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the …
This dashboard is our new go-to resource for keeping track of key developments in the EU ETS market and carbon price. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
Our forward-looking proprietary Green Transition Scores make it easy to judge, assess and explain your climate position and strategy. If you have any questions about the content, please contact david.oxley@capitaleconomics.com or …
The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a bigger impact on imports of Chinese-made batteries, …
14th May 2024
Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t immune; a surge in demand for electricity to power cooling …
9th May 2024
The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction toolkit. Although the price of polluting in China is likely …
7th May 2024
This dashboard is our new go-to resource for keeping track of Chinese green technology exports. The dashboard was last updated on 20th September 2024. If you have any questions about the content, please contact david.oxley@capitaleconomics.com or …
Whither central bank green policy? The role of central banks in fighting climate change was amongst the varied subjects touched upon by France President Emmanuel Macron in a sprawling speech earlier this month. In addition to pondering deep rhetorical …
30th April 2024
The rapid expansion in China’s manufacturing capacity of green technology is a symptom of the country’s investment-led growth model and so there is no reason to believe that any change in tack is imminent. Against this backdrop, western governments will …
23rd April 2024
Despite another large y/y fall in green technology export values from China in March, falling solar panel and battery prices mean that China’s export volumes of the so-called “New Three” were close to the peak recorded in September 2023. After the 12.8% …
22nd April 2024
Recent increases in natural gas prices in Europe have predictably been mirrored in the EU carbon price, which has risen from a 31-month low of €52 per tonne in February to €71 at the time of writing. The rise in European natural gas prices has been driven …
18th April 2024
El Ni ño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit more as a result of creaking infrastructure than low …
4th April 2024
While the number of “green” jobs in the UK rose strongly in 2022, it’s worth noting that green workers were still outnumbered by estate agents! Market forces are facilitating the transition to a greener workforce, but policies to make the labour market …
2nd April 2024
China is driving the global renewable rollout… It came as no surprise to see China loom large in the International Renewables Energy Agency’s provisional statistics on renewable energy capacity in 2023. As shown in Chart 1, China added more than twice as …
28th March 2024
This second edition of our annual Climate Economics Outlook updates our long-term emissions forecasting framework to incorporate our latest macroeconomic and energy views. Note: You can create your own emissions scenarios with our interactive Emissions …
26th March 2024
The latest monthly trade data from China highlight how the huge expansion in local manufacturing capacity is pushing down green technology prices and will only add to western concerns about trade “dumping”. Although shipments to developed markets in the …
20th March 2024
“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data …
14th March 2024
The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
Recent comments by one of the six members of the ECB’s Executive Board have reignited debate over the appropriate role for central banks in tackling climate change. Against this backdrop, we are re-publishing analysis that was originally released in early …
29th February 2024
Checking in on clean energy equities The MSCI Global Alternative Energy Index has outperformed the standard MSCI World Energy benchmark since we published an Update in November arguing that we had reached peak-pessimism for clean energy equities. (See …
The latest crane survey reported the highest volume of London office starts on record. In part that reflects a refurbishment boom as developers retrofit their buildings to meet MEES standards and benefit from the green premium. New development is also …
28th February 2024
