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Auto exporters in China have adapted to the EU’s tariffs on EVs by lowering export prices and focusing on vehicles that are not subject to tariffs. Even if trade restrictions were to remain in place, the extent of China’s cost advantage means that …
10th July 2025
Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will become more attractive places to visit. However, there is a …
1st July 2025
Investment trends are not consistent with net zero The IEA published the latest edition of its World Energy Investment report in early June, which revealed that clean energy investment is expected to rise by a healthy 6% y/y in 2025. (See Chart 1.) What’s …
30th June 2025
China’s New Three export volumes edged down in May, but remained close to record highs, as the impact on trade from US tariffs was partially offset by increased shipments to the Middle East. While the US-China trade truce could help provide a small boost …
20th June 2025
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
13th June 2025
“One Big Beautiful Bill” (but not for clean energy) The passage of President Trump’s fiscal package – termed the “ One Big Beautiful Bill ” – through the House of Representatives is another step back for climate action in the US. Indeed, the bill would …
30th May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
The surplus in the EU carbon market dampened incentives to decarbonise in 2024, and the likelihood that the surplus is maintained until 2027 will keep a lid on carbon prices in the near term. Further ahead, a sharp contraction in the supply of carbon …
29th May 2025
Despite the jump in US tariffs this year, China’s exports of the “New Three” reached a record high in April. This was mainly driven by increased exports to non-US markets, such as the EU. Looking ahead, this trend will probably continue as the impact of …
20th May 2025
By seeking to extend the “polluter pays” principle to building owners and road users, the ‘sequel’ to the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme was always likely to run into public and political opposition. The risk for the EU is that any concessions to make ETS2 …
19th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has much higher tariffs on China than on other countries and …
12th May 2025
It’s possible that the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula goes down in history as a catalyst for widescale electricity grid upgrades which ultimately help to bolster the pace of the renewable rollout. But at least in developed economies, it’s …
1st May 2025
What do Trump tariffs mean for green tech? Much ink has been spilled over the macro and market impacts of various US tariff announcements over the past month. (See here .) From a climate perspective, these tariffs will only add to existing trade barriers …
30th April 2025
The surge in China’s green exports to a new record high in March could be the final strong showing for a while given the escalation in US tariffs on all Chinese imports. However, green tech exporters in China may be able to soften the blow from a loss of …
23rd April 2025
The IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facilities with Egypt and Pakistan will incentivise policymakers to implement climate adaptation and mitigation policies. That said, both countries still need to attract significant amounts of private investment to …
14th April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
The recent scrapping of the carbon tax in Canada shows that the political pushback against climate policy is certainly not just confined to the United States. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of the death of climate policy are greatly exaggerated; …
31st March 2025
Environmental, Social and Governance, or ESG, investing has come under renewed pressure due to pushback from the new US president. Despite that, we think that demand for ESG investments is here to stay and that their performance won’t buckle much in the …
25th March 2025
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
China’s exports of the “New Three” technologies fell in early 2025 as the boost from front-running tariffs in the US appeared to fade. With tariffs only likely to climb and the adoption of clean technologies slowing in some developed markets, China will …
21st March 2025
This third edition of our annual Climate Economics Outlook updates our long-term emissions forecasting framework to incorporate our latest macroeconomic and energy views. Note: You can create your own emissions scenarios with our interactive Emissions …
6th March 2025
Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go far enough to address the structural headwinds facing …
5th March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
4th March 2025
CBAM caught in the EU’s regulatory slimdown The European Commission (EC) announced its ‘Simplification Omnibus’ this week, which scaled back firms’ reporting requirements with the aim of lowering costs and improving competitiveness. From a climate …
28th February 2025
The EU’s Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus packages mark a shift in climate policy as pushback against the costs of climate action grows. With the EU less willing to impose costs on the private sector, there is a growing risk that it does not follow …
27th February 2025
Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more concentrated in emerging markets more aligned with China. The …
19th February 2025
The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for electricity, this could add further downward pressure on …
5th February 2025
Farewell to Trudeau and his carbon tax Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's departure from office is likely to be swiftly followed by the removal of his Liberal party's signature 2019 federal carbon tax. With their "axe the tax" slogan, Canada's Conservatives …
30th January 2025
Although European natural gas prices will still influence EU carbon prices in the near-term, investors’ recent optimism suggests that expectations for a tighter carbon market down the line are starting to drive a wedge between carbon and gas prices. The …
28th January 2025
The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will reshape global energy flows during his term. That …
23rd January 2025
China’s exports of the “New Three” ended last year at a new record high as US firms continued to ramp-up imports of Chinese-made batteries. Meanwhile, the backdrop of heightened tariffs and slowing green transitions in developed countries has resulted in …
20th January 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
17th January 2025
While commercial real estate insurance premiums remain elevated, their growth dropped back substantially last year. But as the West and Gulf coasts still face the greatest threat from climate risks, we expect continued rapid premium growth in those …
13th January 2025
On the face of it, the fact that the world is installing more renewable electricity generating capacity than seemed likely just a few years ago is encouraging for the green transition. That said, one must not lose sight of the fact that non-renewable …
Whilst Donald Trump is threatening to slam the brakes on the green transition in the US, state-level officials have the tools to continue making progress on the climate front. This Update uses our Regional Climate Databank to highlight the extreme …
9th January 2025
The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to the early-2010s was instead an era of globalisation: most …
7th January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
China’s exports of the “New Three” held up in November, although this was solely due to the strength of lithium-ion battery exports to the US as firms prepare for the imposition of tariffs. Looking ahead, alongside gains in competitiveness, tariff …
20th December 2024
Note: We'll be discussing US climate policy under Trump, Elon Musk, and the future of the Inflation Reduction Act in a Drop-in on Wednesday 4th December 15:00 GMT/10:00 EST . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. States take the lead on …
29th November 2024
We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. What are Trump’s motives for threatening tariffs and will he follow through? Trump has spoken about using …
The fact that climate mitigation policies can manifest themselves in a range of macroeconomic outcomes will make it difficult for central bankers to know how to respond appropriately. Meanwhile, the increased push-back against low-cost Chinese green …
27th November 2024
The failure of COP29 to deliver on ambitious climate finance targets means that developing economies still lack sufficient low-cost finance for climate adaption. That leaves them reliant on debt-based finance, adding to debt burdens and raising the risk …
President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the countries targeted – Canada, Mexico and China – to head …
26th November 2024
We discussed the global impact of higher tariffs in a Drop-In on Tuesday, 26th November. Click here to watch the 20-minute online briefing. In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use …
25th November 2024
Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the support for manufacturing investment aligns with Trump’s …
22nd November 2024
China’s green export volumes rose in October and were just 3% shy of the record high reached in August. Chinese battery makers could be hit hard by President-elect Trump’s tariff proposals. But the surge in battery exports following the announcement of a …
20th November 2024
President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers and exporters of CO 2 emissions is likely to shrink …
14th November 2024
An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty. The president-elect’s campaign pledges on everything from Iran and Israel to climate policy to household energy bills appear to raise …
The recent floods in Spain have inflicted huge personal and financial costs. But in terms of GDP, the effect is likely to be quite small as the temporary loss in activity will probably be offset by increased government expenditure. Similarly, while the …
12th November 2024
