A second consecutive quarter of sharp falls in bond yields has driven improved valuations in 90 of the 93 markets that we cover. As a result, less than a third of all markets look overvalued, the lowest proportion since the end of 2017. With bond yields …
23rd August 2019
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained strong at the start of Q3. However, with external headwinds mounting and property development likely to moderate, economic activity looks set to slow before long . The CAP is our attempt to …
21st August 2019
The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the slump in EM exports. With the global economy set to …
20th August 2019
Having slowed sharply in Q1 and at the start of Q2, it looks like EM GDP growth strengthened a little in May and June. Even so, with China’s slowdown set to resume and the global economy more generally faring poorly, aggregate EM growth will remain very …
26th July 2019
May’s small rise in world trade volumes added to evidence that trade growth may have begun to stabilise following the slump that began in Q4 last year. But we see little sign of a recovery coming any time soon. Data published yesterday by the CPB …
Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign debt default in Argentina. Sovereign debt risks are …
24th July 2019
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth jumped at the end of last quarter. But data issues raise questions about the true extent of the pick-up. And mounting domestic and external headwinds offer reasons to remain downbeat on the outlook. The …
The US-China trade war truce, coming alongside Mercosur countries and Vietnam securing trade deals with the EU, has eased some of the worst fears about protectionism. But it’s far from certain that these trade deals will clear legislative hurdles. And …
18th July 2019
EM GDP growth slowed in Q1 to rates only seen a handful times in the last two decades. And while there are signs of a turnaround in some of the worst-performing economies, growth in the emerging world as a whole is likely to remain subdued over the next …
28th June 2019
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) continues to suggest that economic growth has stabilised in recent months, with stronger construction activity helping to mask a slowdown in other sectors. But with headwinds from US tariffs still likely to intensify later …
26th June 2019
After rounding off a weak first quarter, world trade volumes fell in April. As the global economy slows further, world trade growth is likely to be sluggish, almost irrespective of developments in the trade war. Data published today by the CPB Netherlands …
25th June 2019