China’s September FX reserves data may show signs of currency intervention We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 275,000 last month (13.30 BST) Check out our major new project, The Fracturing of the Global Economy , here Key Market Themes Although the …
6th October 2022
We think euro-zone retail sales fell by 0.5% m/m in August (10.00 BST) Peru’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp on Thursday (00.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Thursday to discuss the risks to EMs from a stronger dollar Key Market …
5th October 2022
Italy’s composite PMI probably fell in September below the 50 “no change” mark (08.45 BST) We think the US trade deficit fell sharply in August, as exports continued to surge (13.30 BST) We expect Romania’s and Poland’s central banks to hike their …
4th October 2022
Manufacturing PMI for Korea may shed light on the state of global trade (01.30 BST) We expect the RBA to hike by 50bp (04.30 BST) We doubt US JOLTS data will show much of a rebound in labour market slack (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even though recent …
3rd October 2022
Euro-zone September final PMIs may signal further weakness (Wed.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a further 275,000 in September (Fri.) We expect rate hikes in Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Peru and Romania Key Market Themes Investors have so far …
30th September 2022
China’s manufacturing PMI may have weakened further this month (02.30 BST) We think India’s central bank will raise its policy rate by another 50bp (04.30 BST) US PCE inflation probably dropped in August due to lower energy prices (13.30 BST) Key Market …
29th September 2022
European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator may have fallen this month (10.00 BST) US GDP data may partly revise away Q1 decline (13.30 BST) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Colombia, and Thailand Key Market Themes The plunge in the stock …
28th September 2022
We expect an above-consensus 50bp rate hike in Thailand (08.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss the Brazilian election Click here to watch a replay of Tuesday’s Drop-In discussion on recent moves in FX markets Key Market …
27th September 2022
We think US durable goods orders fell in August (13.30 BST) Hungary’s central bank will probably raise its benchmark rate by 100 bp (12.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss recent moves in FX markets Key Market Themes Italy’s …
26th September 2022
We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Colombia, Thailand, Hungary and Nigeria next week US real personal consumption probably changed little in August (Thu.) We think euro-zone CPI inflation rose further last month (Fri.) Key Market Themes We think …
23rd September 2022
We think retail sales fell sharply in Canada in July (13.30 BST) Flash PMIs in the UK and Europe are likely to show activity slowing further in September Sign up here for our Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss recent moves in FX markets Key Market Themes We …
22nd September 2022
We think the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75bps... (19.00 BST) ...and the Bank of England to hike by 50bps (12.00 BST) We expect the SNB and Norges Bank to continue tightening policy too (08.30 & 09.00 BST) Key Market Themes The extent of the …
21st September 2022
South Africa’s inflation probably eased slightly last month (09.00 BST) We think the Fed will hike by 75bp tomorrow, but still expect rate cuts next year (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank may end its tightening cycle with a final 25bp increase (22.30 …
20th September 2022
We expect the US Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75bp (Wednesday) Flash PMIs will probably suggest the euro-zone economy remained weak in September (Friday) The UK government might announce a further fiscal expansion (Friday) Key Market Themes …
16th September 2022
We think China’s August activity data will reveal further economic weakness (03.00 BST) Final August euro-zone inflation data may show broadening price pressures (10.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to cut by 50bp (11.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
15th September 2022
We think the PBOC will keep its policy rates on hold (02.15 BST) Euro-zone labour costs may show pay pressures building (10.00 BST) Falling gas prices probably dragged down headline US retail sales (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
14th September 2022
Inflation in the UK probably edged higher last month (07.00 BST) We think euro-zone industrial production fell sharply in July (10.00 BST) Clients can see our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
13th September 2022
We suspect UK labour demand dropped back a bit in July (07.00 BST) We think the German ZEW economic sentiment indicator fell again in September (10.00 BST) Inflation in the US probably edged lower last month (13.00 BST) Key Market Themes US inflation …
12th September 2022
We think UK GDP rebounded in July but recession looms (Mon.) US headline inflation probably fell further in August (Tue.) The PBOC will probably leave the MLF rate unchanged again this month (Thu.) Key Market Themes We suspect the positive correlation …
9th September 2022
We think consumer price inflation in China edged lower in August … (02.30 BST) … and inflation data out of Brazil will also show a further fall last month (13.00 BST) Clients can view our latest dashboards and proprietary indicators here Key Market …
8th September 2022
We expect the ECB to raise its policy rate by 75bp ... (13.15 BST) ... while Malaysia’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (08.00 BST) Inflation in Mexico and Chile probably edged higher in August (11.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think 10-year …
7th September 2022
We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 75bp… (Tue 21.00 BST) …and we think the Bank of Canada will do likewise (Wed 15.00 BST) Poland’s central bank may end its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike Key Market Themes Even though we expect the RBA to …
6th September 2022
We expect Australia’s central bank to hike by 50bp (04.30 BST) We think the ISM Services Index fell back a bit in August (15.00 BST) Chile’s central bank could raise its policy rate by a further 75bp (21.00 BST) Key Market Themes The indefinite closure of …
5th September 2022
The UK’s next prime minister will be announced on Monday US ISM services survey probably remained at a healthy level last month (Tuesday) We expect interest rate hikes in the euro-zone, Australia, Canada and several major EMs Key Market Themes With …
2nd September 2022
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 350,000 in August… (13.30 BST) … and will be discussing the release in a drop-in tomorrow at 15.00 BST Clients can also sign up for Monday’s drop-in on the UK outlook under the new PM here Key Market Themes We …
1st September 2022
Caixin manufacturing PMI likely to suggest that China’s recovery lost steam (02.45 BST) Euro-zone unemployment rate may have risen for the first time in two years (10.00 BST) US ISM manufacturing survey will probably point to sluggish growth in August …
31st August 2022
We think official PMIs will show China’s economy continued to lose momentum (02.30 BST) Inflation in the euro-zone probably rose further in August (10.00 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In about macro risks across emerging markets here Key …
30th August 2022
August euro-zone inflation data likely to reinforce the case for further ECB rate hikes (Wed.) Power shortages likely to mean falls in China’s manufacturing PMIs (Wed. & Thu.) We expect another healthy rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (Fri.) Key …
26th August 2022
US spending data are likely to show consumption accelerated in July (13.30 BST) Powell’s speech likely to emphasise the need to keep rates high for some time (15.00 BST) We think GDP growth in Nigeria slowed markedly last quarter Key Market Themes …
25th August 2022
We expect Korea’s central bank to hike by another 25bp August Ifo Business Climate Indicator may imply a recession in Germany (09.00 BST) Second estimate of US Q2 GDP likely to be revised up (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 …
24th August 2022
We think August mid-month figures will show inflation fell sharply in Brazil (13.00 BST) Core durable goods orders in the US probably edged up last month (13.30 BST) Clients can register for our upcoming Drop-In on the outlooks for China and Japan …
23rd August 2022
We suspect the Composite PMI fell further below 50 in August in the euro-zone… (09.00 BST) … while crossing this boundary for the first time since last lockdown in the UK (09.30 BST) Higher US mortgage rates may have pushed new home sales further down …
22nd August 2022
We expect a 50bp rate hike from Israel’s central bank (Monday) August Flash PMIs for the euro-zone and UK may point towards recession (Tuesday) We doubt that Fed Chair Powell will spring a surprise at Jackson Hole (Friday) Key Market Themes Dividend …
19th August 2022
In the UK, we suspect retail sales volumes declined for the fifth time in six months in July … … and the fiscal position was probably a bit worse than the OBR’s forecast (07.00 BST) Clients can catch-up on our Drop-In on Europe and the impact of …
18th August 2022
Fed’s July meeting minutes likely to emphasise commitment to further hikes (Wed. 19.00 BST) We expect the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 1.75% (09.00 BST) Turkey’s central bank will probably leave its one-week repo rate on hold at 14% …
17th August 2022
UK CPI inflation probably rose further in July (07.00 BST) We think euro-zone economic growth remained positive in Q2 (10.00 BST) US retail sales probably edged higher in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We think equity and commodity prices will …
The UK unemployment rate probably remained flat in June (07.00 BST) Canada’s CPI inflation may have dropped back in July (13.30 BST) We think US industrial production edged higher last month (15.15 BST) Key Market Themes We expect external and domestic …
15th August 2022
US activity data are likely to show the economy began the third quarter in decent health … … but activity data for China will probably show the recovery losing some steam (Mon.) UK Inflation probably rose to nearly 10% last month (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
12th August 2022
We think that UK GDP contracted in June due to temporary working day effects (07.00BST) Euro-zone industrial output probably rose in June, but prospects look gloomy (10.00 BST) Easing inflationary pressures likely aided US consumer confidence this month …
11th August 2022
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike by 75bp (19.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop In on the challenges facing economies in Emerging Europe... ...and here for a replay of today’s Drop In on the July US CPI data Key Market Themes Despite dropping on the …
10th August 2022
We think CPI inflation in China edged higher in July … (02.00 BST) … while headline inflation in the US probably fell back a bit (13.30 BST) Policymakers in Thailand are likely to hike rates for the first time this year (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
9th August 2022
We think that inflation rose in Mexico last month, but dropped back in Brazil Clients can register for Tuesday’s Drop-Ins on oil prices and the Gulf economies here … … and on whether the recent rallies in equity and bond markets will last here Key Market …
8th August 2022
We think credit growth in China slowed on the back of mortgage boycotts in July (Tue.) US headline CPI inflation may have fallen in July, but we think the core rate rose (Wed.) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Peru, and Thailand Key Market Themes After a …
5th August 2022
We expect central banks in Romania and India to hike policy rates We think US non-farm payrolls rose by around 250,000 in July… (13.30 BST) … and clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the Employment Report (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
4th August 2022
We expect the Bank of England to hike by 50bp... (12.00 BST) ...while the Czech central bank could raise its policy rate by 25bp (13.30 BST) Sign up for our Drop-In on the big themes in EMs, including US-China tensions, here Key Market Themes We think …
3rd August 2022
We think the Caixin Services PMI edged lower last month (02.45 BST) Inflation in Turkey probably exceeded 80% in July (08.00 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike rates by 50bp (22.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although the US dollar has faltered over …
2nd August 2022
We expect the RBA to hike its policy rate by 50bp, to 1.85% (04.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales volumes probably declined in May (10.00 BST) Clients can register for this week’s drop ins on EMs , the BoE and July’s US payroll report Key Market Themes We …
1st August 2022
We expect 50bp rate hikes from the RBA (Tue.) and BoE (Thu.) Central banks in Brazil, India, Romania and Czechia also set to hike next week Employment report may ease fears that the US economy is already in recession (Fri.) Key Market Themes The surge in …
29th July 2022
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics We expect euro-zone GDP probably rose a little bit last quarter … … and intense price pressures kept regional inflation high in July (10.00 BST) We think that Colombia’s central bank will hike its …
28th July 2022
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics We expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate by 75bp, to 2.25-2.50%(19.00 BST) We think the US economy expanded by just above 1% q/q annualised last quarter (13.30 BST) Register for our Drop-In on …
27th July 2022
