Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Measures by the Reserve Bank to drain banking sector liquidity have caught attention over the past few days. But with liquidity still abundant, interbank rates at the very bottom of the rate corridor and financial conditions exceptionally loose, these …
14th September 2021
Our financial conditions indices show that conditions remain loose by historic standards in most EMs. The key exception is Latin America, where conditions have tightened sharply this year due to rising interest rates and fiscal risks. This could pose a …
13th September 2021
The speech by Governor Tiff Macklem this week suggests that, when the Bank of Canada next tapers its asset purchases, it may do so by less than is commonly assumed. Macklem starts talking about the end of QE The Bank kept policy unchanged at its meeting …
10th September 2021
Norway is a riddle, in a mystery, inside an enigma Norwegians will go the polls in parliamentary elections on Monday in what has been dubbed the “climate election”. The run-up to the vote has been dominated by a debate over the appropriate speed at which …
The future of ECB QE On Thursday, the ECB announced a slight reduction in the pace of its PEPP purchases but delayed more important decisions to December. (See here .) So October’s meeting looks set to be dull, and Christine Lagarde might need to channel …
Virus outbreaks starting to ease Virus outbreaks across South East Asia are in retreat. The biggest improvement has been in Indonesia, where daily cases of COVID-19 are now just over 10% of the level they reached in July. Numbers are also coming down in …
Yesterday’s larger 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, delivered by Peru’s central bank (BCRP) suggests it is becoming increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. With inflation set to stay above the 1-3% target range over the coming quarters, and GDP …
The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent GDP from returning to its pre-pandemic peak until next …
9th September 2021
We think the UK economy lost some momentum in July (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike by 50bp at its meeting on Friday (11.30 BST) US producer prices for August may show further inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The ECB …
The ECB today confirmed that it will slow its asset purchases slightly but this is a long way from a “full taper”. We think inflation will drop even further than the ECB expects over the medium term and expect the Bank to continue with asset purchases of …
Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, and won’t be in any rush to adjust rates soon. Although the economy should start to rebound now that virus restrictions are being eased, output is likely to remain below potential for …
Factory-gate inflation hits a 13-year high Producer price inflation reached its highest since August 2008 last month due to the rally in global commodity prices. But the breakdown suggests that upward pressure on the factory-gate prices of consumer goods …
Economic activity in New Zealand took a significant hit as the country was plunged into its strictest level of lockdown in August. But New Zealand’s success at taming the virus means output should return to its pre-Delta path by Q1 and the RBNZ will begin …
There are some emerging downside risks to the economic outlook both domestically and globally but, after taking a well-anticipated pause at this meeting, we do not expect those risks to prevent the Bank from tapering its asset purchases at the next …
8th September 2021
The fact that the Swedish GDP indicator was nearly 2% above its pre-virus level in July puts a question mark over the wisdom of the Riksbank’s plan to exhaust its asset purchase envelope by end-2021. We think there is a rising chance that policymakers …
This year’s monsoon has so far been weaker than usual. This won’t have as big an economic impact as it would have a couple of decades ago. But it will harm employment and energy production. Some comfort can be taken from the fact that food inflation is …
7th September 2021
While the RBA pressed ahead with tapering its asset purchases today, the financial markets are too optimistic in pricing in rate hikes as soon as next year . The RBA kept its interest rate targets unchanged at 0.10% as widely anticipated, but the more …
While the spike in August inflation in the Philippines makes the central bank’s (BSP) policy decision this month an even closer call, the worsening outlook for the economy means we are sticking with our non-consensus view of a 25bp cut on 23 rd September. …
Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer price inflation has risen recently and the price …
6th September 2021
Clouds gather over Brazil’s recovery The disappointing economic data out of Brazil this week has cast some clouds over the economy’s recovery prospects. As it happens, we think that GDP growth will pick up quite strongly in Q3, but we’re increasingly …
3rd September 2021
Korea keeping fiscal policy supportive Korea’s proposed budget for 2022 indicates that fiscal policy will remain supportive. In nominal terms, expenditure in 2022 is set to be roughly in line with this year’s (which has been boosted by two stimulus …
For most of the pandemic period, policymakers have been worrying that there will be too much unemployment. But now the fear is that there aren’t enough workers to fill all the jobs! Admittedly, there are still some lingering concerns that when the …
Poland’s inflation surge splits opinion at the NBP The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for some …
Delta undefeatable in Australia Victoria joined New South Wales (NSW) in abandoning the zero-Covid strategy this week, declaring the Delta Variant ‘undefeatable’. Even so, the state government opted not to meaningfully ease restrictions. Instead, the …
ECB likely to signal that it will reduce its weekly PEPP purchases in the months ahead. But we think it will leave interest rates unchanged until beyond 2025. The Bank will also nudge up its inflation and growth forecasts for this year. The ECB is likely …
2nd September 2021
The data released over the northern hemisphere summer break have suggested that economic recoveries in most countries have started to lose some steam. At the same time, while inflation is generally higher now that at the start of the summer, there are …
The latest data show that growth in the main monetary aggregates is slowing even before the Fed starts tapering its monthly asset purchases, although it remains strong by historic standards. (See Chart 1.) With the Fed likely to begin reducing its monthly …
1st September 2021
The surprise 75bp interest rate hike by Chile’s central bank late on Tuesday (which took the policy rate to 1.50%) underscores policymakers’ concerns about the inflation outlook. Our forecasts for the policy rate had in any case been on the hawkish side, …
Acceleration in vaccine rollout means lockdowns unlikely to last much longer RBA will probably press ahead with tapering However, Bank unlikely to tighten as early as next year as financial markets expect The health situation in Australia continues to …
Q2 GDP data released over the past month or so did not show a repeat of the across-the-board rises in exports seen in previous quarters, but the external sector still proved an important prop to GDP in many places. Thailand’s economy unexpectedly grew …
31st August 2021
A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “ common prosperity ” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues that the recent regulatory crackdown is just the …
Brazil’s institutions take a beating The newsflow out of Brazil this week has made for grim reading, with open disputes between the presidency and supreme court putting the country’s democratic institutions under strain. In such circumstances, it’s hard …
27th August 2021
Delta wave spreads The Delta-variant linked surge in coronavirus cases continues and has now spread well beyond just one or two southern states. (See Chart 1.) Moreover, even in those southern states, particularly Florida, new case numbers remain close to …
Russia dips into the pre-election playbook Russia’s government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September’s election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and rates. The government will …
Do you want the good news or the bad news? Business surveys took centre stage on Wednesday morning, with strong parallels between the August readings of the Swiss Investor Sentiment Index and the German Ifo . Encouragingly, businesses in both countries …
NSW easing a damb squib Yesterday’s announcement by New South Wales (NSW) that it will ease restrictions for fully vaccinated people was disappointing. Sydney residents in areas under a curfew will be allowed to have a picnic from mid-September, but that …
Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3. However, the recovery has been accompanied by a marked …
26th August 2021
With the Delta-linked resurgence in coronavirus infections adding to the downside risks to economic growth and officials still split on exactly what qualifies as “substantial further progress” toward meeting the full employment goal, we don’t expect Chair …
The account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a minority of Governing Council members objected to the dovish shift in the Bank’s interest rate guidance. Partly because of this, we now think the Bank is more likely to take until December to agree …
Year-on-year money and lending growth has fallen sharply this year and we think it will decline further. With the subdued level of economic activity also weighing on consumer prices, we don’t think that money growth poses a significant upside risk to …
New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were only pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike in October …
We were among the first forecasters to call that the Bank of Korea (BoK) would begin tightening monetary policy this year and it duly delivered today, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Given the hawkish comments in the press conference, we now …
Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month (see Chart 1), bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking ahead, the growing likelihood of the US …
25th August 2021
Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised its base rate by another 30bp, to 1.50%, as expected today but also dropped its commitment to raise interest rates on a monthly basis which suggests that the tightening cycle will probably slow after September’s …
24th August 2021
GDP is on track to return to its pre-pandemic level this month but, with the number of coronavirus infections now picking up, there is a growing risk that the recoveries in some sectors go into reverse. Admittedly, the progress on vaccinations means that …
Israel’s central bank (BoI) sounded more cautious about the outlook at today’s MPC meeting given the rise in virus cases and tightening of containment measures. Provided the third booster jab is effective and restrictions are not tightened significantly, …
23rd August 2021
The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a hike in the reverse repo rate and a change in policy stance would be prudent to show that the committee remains committed to …
The Fed now looks likely to begin tapering its asset purchases later this year, but the precise timing could depend on the extent of any economic drag from the continued rapid spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. The minutes from the July FOMC meeting …
20th August 2021
Fiscal risks bubbling under the surface in Romania Romania’s new finance minister, Dan Vilceanu, has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path and this will be made all the harder by suggestions from PM Citu to spend the windfall …
Norges Bank gets its nose in front The Norges Bank’s “interim” August policy announcement on Thursday did not upset the form book, and the Bank left interest rates on hold at a record low of zero once again. (See here .) The Bank said that economic …
