Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets out these assumptions in more detail and discusses the …
13th January 2021
The number of new coronavirus cases came down in many countries before Christmas as a result of the tighter restrictions in place. But since then, things have taken a turn for the worse. New cases have been increasing at the beginning of the year in …
8th January 2021
The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the end of last year, the number of new virus cases in the …
7th January 2021
We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year. The fortunes of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone …
While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here ), and the uneven start suggests that some countries will make …
Despite a brighter economic outlook later in 2021, many of the factors that weighed on investment activity last year are set to persist. In turn, following a likely 20% fall in European (excluding UK) investment in 2020, we think the recovery this year is …
Although the rollout of effective vaccines should allow economic activity to rebound in the second half of the year, we do not think that European property markets will bounce back quickly. This Update outlines four key developments to watch out for in …
6th January 2021
Yesterday’s approval of the first vaccine by European authorities marked the start of the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, which we expect to lead to a lifting of restrictions in Q2. However, the gradual pace at which production is being ramped …
22nd December 2020
US Treasury not on the SNB’s Christmas card list The SNB’s final policy meeting of the year (see here ) was overshadowed by the news on Wednesday that the US Treasury designated Switzerland, along with Vietnam, a “currency manipulator” in its latest …
18th December 2020
The ECB’s message that it will persist with its flexible asset purchase programme until at least early 2022 should reassure investors that there will not be a reversal of the compression of bond yields anytime soon. Beyond then, there is a little more …
10th December 2020
Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable members of society are inoculated, which will probably be …
4th December 2020
A weaker CEE rental outlook, coupled with tighter policy and investors’ reassessment of the sector, suggest that the recent widening between CEE and euro-zone office yields has further to go. As the severity of the pandemic became clear, we argued that …
3rd December 2020
News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term, next year is still likely to be tough for most property …
2nd December 2020
Falls in alternative asset yields in Q3 meant valuations continued to improve for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. (See Chart 1.) And the backdrop is supportive of property valuations in the coming quarters. Indeed, government …
30th November 2020
Sweden in the limelight It has been a Sweden-centric week, rounded off with a raft of economic data released this morning. The most noteworthy of which was the second reading of Q3 GDP, which was revised up from the initial estimate (+4.9% q/q versus …
27th November 2020
Confidence likely to remain low for a while The fall in consumer confidence in November suggests that good news about the vaccine has not done much to improve sentiment in the euro-zone. With the virus still spreading quickly and lockdowns likely to be …
20th November 2020
The cavalry are coming, but not for a few months We are increasingly optimistic that vaccines against COVID-19 will be distributed at least to priority groups in the first half of next year . There are logistical challenges but they look manageable. (See …
Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to detach permanently from the underlying strength of the …
19th November 2020
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in Europe, but it now seems likely that it will be delivered to those most vulnerable to the disease by Q2 next year, which would help to reduce the risk of damaging runs on …
17th November 2020
Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best in Germany. The official data only run up until …
The announcement on Monday of Pfizer & BioNTech’s successful trial of their COVID-19 vaccine was unambiguously good news that sent European stock markets earlier this week to their highest levels since early March. The widespread distribution of a highly …
13th November 2020
The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland (see Chart 1.), the rising strain on the healthcare sector in Sweden, and steps taken to contain …
12th November 2020
Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this year, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the US or …
While an effective vaccine would greatly improve the outlook for next year, the latest data show that the virus is still spreading rapidly. Unless this is reversed soon, the one-month lockdowns in place in many euro-zone countries may be extended, keeping …
10th November 2020
If an effective vaccine is rolled out in the euro-zone in the coming months, it would lead to stronger growth next year but slower growth in 2022. With light at the end of the tunnel, policy support may be just as generous in the short term and be more …
9th November 2020
Downside risks become central forecast This week, the downside risks to our forecasts continued to crystalise. First, the economic data added to the evidence that activity was slowing even before the new lockdowns in Germany and France were implemented. …
6th November 2020
Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly (see Chart 1.) and we suspect that the new restrictions will bring the …
5th November 2020
Retail sales fall before new restrictions introduced September’s data show that euro-zone retail sales were coming off the boil even before many non-essential retailers were forced to shut up shop. Online spending will probably pick up again, but by …
The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. The lockdowns being implemented across the euro-zone are …
4th November 2020
A bleak winter ahead The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone flat-lined in October. But with countries throughout the region entering new lockdowns or substantially tightening restrictions in November, the euro-zone …
We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of the first wave, which is a quite plausible, would result …
3rd November 2020
Time running out on Swiss recovery Data published on Friday showed a smaller-than-expected fall in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in October, from a downwardly-revised 110.1 in September to 106.6. This left it above its February level and suggests that …
30th October 2020
Record growth is of no comfort The massive increase in GDP in Q3 is of no comfort to French policymakers or households, who are now contending with a second national lockdown. Indeed, we expect GDP to fall by 2.5% q/q or so in Q4. The 18.2% q/q increase …
European investment activity is likely to remain subdued into 2021, as pricing has been slow to adjust and investors continue to push back investment decisions in the current uncertain environment. CBRE data showed that there were no signs of a recovery …
29th October 2020
We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the lockdowns stay in place for much longer than a month, are …
Nordics not immune, but comparatively resilient In case you missed it, we released our latest Nordic & Swiss Economics Outlook this week. Of course, virus developments are the key uncertainty. However, assuming that the Nordics continue to avoid the scale …
23rd October 2020
Having outperformed in H1, the Nordic economies are set for some of the smallest falls in output in Europe this year. Of course, the virus is the key uncertainty for the outlook, but it is encouraging that Denmark’s second wave already looks to have …
20th October 2020
Overview – The second wave of coronavirus has caused the recovery to stall and we forecast euro-zone GDP to stagnate for the next six months, with an outright recession a significant downside risk. We think Spain’s economy will probably contract in Q4, …
19th October 2020
Switzerland in the grip of a second wave The share of virus tests returning positive results in Switzerland doubled in the first two weeks of October and mirrored similar rises seen in Italy and the UK over the same period. At about 7%, the positivity …
16th October 2020
Even though lockdown restrictions had eased, office take-up in Paris in Q3 was still well below pre-virus levels. And the recent imposition of tighter restrictions in Paris will likely curtail leasing activity in Q4. With similar strict measures likely in …
Government action has meant corporate bankruptcies have remained low, which has prevented a sharp rise in tenancy defaults and has supported income security on leases. But, as this support is gradually withdrawn, rising tenancy defaults in a weak occupier …
15th October 2020
With the virus spreading rapidly, governments are ramping up their containment measures. The new restrictions will be more targeted, regional and time-specific than in the first wave, but they are still likely to cause a new contraction in the services …
14th October 2020
The slowdown in the pace of monthly GDP growth in Norway in August was driven in large part by a fall in consumer spending. The post-lockdown spending splurge on goods appears to have peaked before spending on services was strong enough to pick up the …
13th October 2020
Strong retail sales the outlier, not the norm On the face of it, normality appears to have returned to at least one part of the euro-zone economy. Data this week showed a strong rise in retail sales volumes in August, to 3% above their pre-virus level. …
9th October 2020
Who’s afraid of the Big, Bad US Treasury? Thomas Jordan banged a familiar drum in a speech this week, yet again justifying the SNB’s FX interventions that have seen its balance sheet balloon over the past decade. He also stressed that the Bank’s must have …
The recent strength of retail sales data overstates demand on European prime high streets, with spending by tourists still absent and online purchases making an above-average contribution in most markets. That said, online spending growth has been …
