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Economy running hot in Q1, inflation pressures build further The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is …
17th May 2024
At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. The slides from the event are available on our website . Across the …
Putin’s political shake-up and meeting with Xi There were two big developments in Russia this week. The first was the cabinet reshuffle, in which long-serving defence minister Sergei Shoigu was replaced by economist Andrei Belousov. A lot of ink has been …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for UK inflation and interest rates in a 20-minute online briefing at 9.30am BST on Wednesday 22nd May shortly after the release of April's CPI data. (Register here .) Next Wednesday’s release of April’s CPI inflation data …
The US decision to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100% and to also raise tariffs on EV batteries, semiconductors and solar panels, raises the question how Europe will respond. Europe is in a different position from the US because imports of these …
There will be some upward pressure on services inflation in the coming months from tourism-related items and the pass-through of higher oil prices. But we think that this will be more than offset by the impact of lower gas prices and slower wage growth, …
This dashboard is our new go-to resource for keeping track of key developments in the EU ETS market and carbon price. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
We discussed the outlook for UK inflation and interest rates in an online briefing just after the release of April's CPI data. Watch that briefing here . Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall from 3.2% in March to below 2.0% in April and below 1.0% …
16th May 2024
The policies of the Mexican presidential frontrunner, Claudia Sheinbaum, would provide a more supportive environment for the nearshoring of manufacturing supply chains. But we doubt that she’ll carry out the wholesale economic reforms needed to reap the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Activity rebounds, but net trade remains a large drag The 14.1% q/q annualised rebound in Israeli GDP in Q1 was slightly weaker than expected and left GDP almost 3% below its …
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for the UK economy. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for euro-zone, Nordic & Swiss economies. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top …
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
An interactive guide to the impact of market interest rate expectations on the fiscal policy space available to the Chancellor. This content was last updated on 1st May 2025. If you have subscriber access to the headroom forecasts, you can download it …
Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we think the risks are still to the downside and that the …
CEE’s recovery moving into second gear The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up over the …
April’s inflation data confirm Riksbank unlikely to cut in June. The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected …
The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a bigger impact on imports of Chinese-made batteries, …
14th May 2024
We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th June – not least the April CPI report due Wednesday, 22nd May . Our UK team …
We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing. How far and how fast will the Governing Council go to ease policy? And what will lower rates mean for the euro-zone economy and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sticky wage growth is a lingering concern for the BoE While the further easing in regular private sector pay growth in March suggests that wage pressures faded a bit faster than …
Easing cycle delayed, cut pushed back to Q3 Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more slowly than …
13th May 2024
High net migration has led to a big jump in demand for rental properties that has pushed up the cost of rent compared to the average salary. But comparing rents to average pay is not as accurate a guide to tenant affordability as it used to be. Our …
An increase in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections in June will have little bearing on economic policy in the near term because the more centrist parties should still win a majority of seats. Nonetheless, rising populist …
The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from widening even further this year and contribute to the rebalancing …
The shares of the very biggest, ‘mega-cap’, firms have generally outperformed those of smaller ones by less in Europe than they have in the US on net so far this decade. We expect that to remain the case through the end of 2025, as bond yields drop back …
10th May 2024
With the Bank of England hinting on Thursday that it is close to cutting interest rates and that rates may need to fall further than investors expect, we have become a bit more confident in our view that, due to low inflation, rates will be cut from 5.25% …
This week brought more evidence that European central banks feel comfortable starting their easing cycles ahead of the Fed. As we had expected, the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp, even after last week’s Fed meeting confirmed that it will take longer …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Strong GDP data probably won’t prevent BoE rate cuts The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 confirmed that the recession ended at the start of this year and suggests the economy has been …
Policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE) are edging closer to easing policy, and we still think they will cut Bank Rate by more than widely anticipated. In turn, we expect this will weigh on Gilt yields and sterling. The muted market reaction to the Bank …
9th May 2024
Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and could be used to fund consumption, particularly if …
Rates on hold, small chance of a cut in 2024 Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut before the end …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm today. (Register here .) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting …
For more detailed and up-to-date analysis see here . Rapid falls in inflation may prompt BoE to cut rates in June The Bank of England left interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, but it gave the impression it’s getting closer to cutting rates. …
The Italian industrial market made a strong start to 2024, with prime rent growth outpacing the rest of the euro-zone and beating our own forecasts. Rental gains are still expected to slow going forward, but with economic activity in Italy also holding up …
The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will grow only slowly in the coming quarters. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB has signalled that it is likely to start cutting rates in June. We …
Increasing supply points to softer price growth While sales volumes were robust in April according to the RICS Residential Market Survey, stalling demand and increasing supply suggests that prices will continue to stagnate over the coming months. The …
While regular private sector wage growth in February and services CPI inflation in March were both a bit higher than the Bank of England had expected, we still think that the flatlining of the economy over the past two years will dampen price pressures …
8th May 2024
The Riksbank is likely to follow today’s 25bp rate cut with three more cuts this year, which is one more than the central bank itself forecasts and more than investors are pricing in. The case for rate cuts in Sweden is stronger than for the euro-zone …
Riksbank likely to cut faster than it forecasts The Rikbsank’s decision to cut its key policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.75%, was only partly priced in by financial markets but was forecast by the majority of analysts including ourselves. Attention will now …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German industrial recovery halts in March The renewed contraction in industrial production in March after two months of expansion, is a reminder that the German economy is still …
Europe will raise barriers to trade and investment with China in the coming months and years. But policymakers will try to balance conflicting objectives so the result may well be a gradual rather than sudden increase in protectionism with measures …
7th May 2024
The decision by Turkey last week to suspend all goods trade with Israel until there is a permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza is unlikely to have a major macroeconomic impact in either country, although Israel’s construction sector appears vulnerable …
The rebound in prime retail rents is set to wane this year. But we think prime rents on luxury high streets will continue to outperform those of mass markets in the coming years. The return to rental growth on high streets in 2023 after three years of …
The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction toolkit. Although the price of polluting in China is likely …
Battle of the survey data ... ESIs vs the PMIs The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies at the start of Q2. …
3rd May 2024
Data released this week showed that euro-zone GDP rose by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q1. And the disinflation process stalled in April, with the headline rate unchanged at 2.4%. (See here.) But GDP was supported by a big rise in construction in …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm BST on Thursday 9th May. (Register here .) OECD too downbeat We think the OECD’s new forecast that the UK will grow at a slower rate in 2025 (of 1.0%) than …
Inflation in Norway has been falling faster than Norges Bank expected for some time, but with the core rate still a long way above target, today’s communications show that policymakers are not counting their chickens. While they now seem to envisage …
