Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
December’s rise in euro-zone inflation reflects temporary energy effects. With economic activity still at very low levels, deflation remains a bigger risk for the region than high inflation in the medium term. … Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment …
5th January 2010
We are more optimistic about the outlook for property returns in non-euro-zone European markets than in our previous forecasts. … Improving investor sentiment may be slow to spread to Emerging Europe (Vol.1 …
4th January 2010
The euro-zone commercial property outlook improved markedly during the second half of 2009. It now seems probable that almost all markets will experience positive total returns in 2010, with Spain and perhaps Greece the most likely exceptions. … Falling …
The euro-zone seems to have pulled out of recession. Although Ireland and Spain will remain mired in recession, most of the member states will record positive growth in 2010, with Germany, France and some of the smaller countries leading the way. The …
21st December 2009
Ireland’s exit from recession in the third quarter provides less grounds for optimism about the outlook for commercial property than it may initially seem. Although rental value falls in Ireland have been among the most pronounced in the euro-zone, …
18th December 2009
With the Irish economy expanding again and the Government apparently willing to take the tough actions required to get the public finances on an even keel, Ireland looks set to avoid coming under the same kind of market pressures as those recently endured …
17th December 2009
Recent developments in Austria underline how the worst has not yet passed for some of Europe’s banks. While the larger euro-zone countries are less vulnerable, we expect lending to fall in some of the region’s smaller countries and most of Emerging Europe …
16th December 2009
While the euro-zone is benefiting from the improvement in global trade conditions, the big issue is whether this will translate into any lasting pick-up in the domestic economy. There are reasons for hope, but the strong euro and premature withdrawal of …
14th December 2009
By announcing an end to its corporate bond purchases, the Swiss National Bank has become the latest to start phasing out its unconventional policy support. But its downbeat forecasts for economic activity suggest that it will not raise official interest …
10th December 2009
The breakdown of Italy’s Q3 GDP data provided some good news for its retail and industrial property markets. However, the full effects of the drop in output over the past 12-18 months have yet to be felt on commercial property rental values. And given our …
Finland has been hit particularly hard by the global economic downturn, faring almost as badly as Ireland. Nonetheless, the foundations are in place for a reasonably strong recovery, suggesting that Finland could be one of the euro-zone’s strongest …
8th December 2009
The dramatic market reaction to the downgrade of Greece’s credit rating from A- to BBB+ by Fitch today partly reflected concerns that Greek banks may in the future be unable to use Government bonds as collateral to obtain funds from the ECB. Whether or …
Initial yields were stable in Q3 in most non-euro European markets. Investment activity rose, albeit from a low base. Rental values dropped further in Q3, especially in office markets. The largest overall falls in all-property rents to date have been in …
4th December 2009
There have recently been some encouraging signs that Irelands painful adjustment may be coming to an end. Nonetheless, considerable obstacles remain. We expect the economy to continue to contract in both 2010 and 2011. … How long will Ireland’s hangover …
3rd December 2009
The ECB confirmed today that it is phasing out its emergency lending to banks, and perhaps a bit more quickly than had been expected. But the Bank is still downbeat about the economic outlook and we think that any tightening of conventional monetary …
Q3’s GDP release confirmed that the euro-zone economy finally exited recession last quarter. But the expansion was largely down to a slower pace of destocking than in Q2. Unfortunately, despite the recent increase in consumer confidence there was no sign …
2nd December 2009
Concerns about German banks have increased, with the Bundesbank estimating that further hefty losses are to come and the Government warning of a worsening credit crunch. But, for the time being at least, the situation does not look worse than that …
1st December 2009
Recent Swedish GDP data confirmed the fragility of its economic recovery. In our view, the modest growth has done little to suggest that Sweden’s commercial property occupier market downturn is nearing an end. Rental values are now falling across all …
The ECB will probably confirm at the forthcoming press conference that December’s provision of 12- month bank loans will be the last. Together with possible hints about phasing out 6-month lending next year, this might add to fears that the Bank will …
26th November 2009
October’s euro-zone money supply figures provided few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provisions of liquidity are prompting any pick-up in broad money and bank lending. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
On the face of it, the latest news from the Italian household sector has been pretty disappointing and suggests that consumer spending may have fallen fairly sharply in Q3. Nonetheless, we think that the conditions are in place for a rise in household …
25th November 2009
Over the next two years we think that the German economy will deliver slightly stronger growth than France. Even so, we think that the downside risks to French rental values are less, while a higher initial yield should boost the French income return. As …
The recent news on the Greek public finances has been terrible and suggests that the Government faces a huge task to get its fiscal house in order. Eventually, we expect pressure from the European Commission and the markets to prompt a considerable fiscal …
20th November 2009
At the start of the recession, office vacancy rates across Europe varied hugely. Yet, however tempting it may have been to assume that rental values in markets with the lowest vacancy rates were better protected from the downturn, the past 12-18 months …
The recent surge in Swedish and Norwegian property prices has fuelled concerns that both economies’ central banks may be forced to ratchet up interest rates in order to prevent housing market bubbles from developing. But we doubt that house prices will …
17th November 2009
Over the past two years the prime retail yield in Amsterdam has gone from one of the lowest in the euro-zone to one of the highest. Given the relatively weak performance of Dutch retail sales, this seems reasonable. But with several factors likely to …
The relatively large falls in industrial rental values in Italy and Portugal appear to stem from poor links to Europe’s primary logistics corridors. With a strong dependence on their domestic economic recoveries, any improvement in rental value …
12th November 2009
In response to the recession developers have cancelled new construction projects where possible. Unfortunately the cutbacks made have not prevented office completions from rising this year. Although European economies are showing tentative signs of …
11th November 2009
The latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is edging slowly towards the policy stimulus exit. But the outstanding stock of central bank loans to ommercial banks will remain very high for some time and the threat of deflation should keep official …
5th November 2009
The past month has brought further signs that the euro-zone is recovering, albeit quite gradually. For a start, July and August’s increases in industrial production suggest that output in the sector should expand by about 2% in Q3. Coming after a 1% fall …
4th November 2009
October’s fall in the ICO measure of Spanish consumer confidence was not all bad news for property markets; confidence is still much higher than it was six months ago and expectations for the future have also improved. But with unemployment set to …
3rd November 2009
Overall, the latest RICS survey of global commercial property markets was more upbeat than the last. However, the improvements were mostly evident in Asia. Within Europe, both occupier and investment markets weakened further in Q3, contrary to signs of …
2nd November 2009
The ECB will leave interest rates on hold at 1.0% at its November policy meeting and we do not expect it to announce any significant change in its policy of providing generous loans to the banking sector. The Bank might scale back its liquidity provision …
29th October 2009
The tightening of credit conditions in Europe may be coming to an end. Coupled with improved investor appetite, European property transactions are on the up. Signs of life are also emerging in some occupier markets, but it is too soon to call an end to …
Along with other regions, the euro-zone remains at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. But the threat posed by deflation varies considerably between different countries. Spain and Ireland appear most vulnerable, while Germany and France …
28th October 2009
The widely anticipated decision by the Norges Bank to raise interest rates from 1.25% to 1.50% made it the third central bank to tighten monetary policy, after Israel and Australia, during the current cycle. … Norges Bank becomes the third central bank to …
Europe appears to have turned a corner, with the German and French economies already expanding in Q2 and most others set to follow suit in the third quarter. But the recovery is unlikely to be very rapid. A modest improvement in global demand will mean …
Today’s ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that the tightening in credit conditions faced by business across Europe may now be at an end. At the same time, however, lenders do not yet appear ready to put that tightening into reverse. Thus, tight credit …
There are still few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provision of liquidity to banks and improving conditions in the financial markets are prompting any pick-up in eurozone broad money and bank lending. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
27th October 2009
The new German Government’s economic programme includes additional tax cuts that make what was already a fairly generous fiscal package stand out as easily the largest in the euro-zone. Policy tightening will clearly be required in the medium term, but a …
26th October 2009
The Swedish Riksbank’s latest economic forecasts suggest that a tightening in monetary policy remains a long way off. This supports our view that interest rates are unlikely to rise as quickly or as early as the markets expect. … Swedish Riksbank in no …
22nd October 2009
With global demand recovering pretty strongly, for at least a few quarters, the ongoing rise of the euro is unlikely to halt the external sector revival in its tracks. Nonetheless, we expect exporters in some euro-zone economies to fare worse than others. …
21st October 2009
The latest Spanish housing market data suggest that residential property prices are no longer falling as sharply as they were at the turn of the year. Nonetheless, we think the housing market downturn is far from over. Indeed, we expect further price …
15th October 2009
The first data for 2009Q3 showed a pick-up in European commercial property investment activity, accompanied by a picture of broad stability for initial yields. At the same time, rental values declined as the recession continued to feed through to occupier …
14th October 2009
On the face of it, the fourth consecutive monthly rise in French industrial output in August provides some grounds for hope that an improvement in industrial occupier demand might be imminent. However, much of the improvement stems from the temporary …
12th October 2009
The ECB’s cautious tone in the press conference following its decision to leave interest rates on hold for the sixth consecutive month supports our view that any future tightening of policy conditions in the region remains a long way off. … ECB still some …
8th October 2009
