Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Q4’s GDP figures confirmed that Spain is one of a dwindling group of economies still in recession. And with its economic imbalances still largely intact, a meaningful recovery remains a distant prospect. Accordingly, it will be difficult for the …
11th February 2010
Speculation that a bail-out of Greece may be imminent has moved the focus on to exactly what form a rescue package may take. The precise details of any bail-out might have important implications for the troubled economy, markets and the rest of Europe. …
9th February 2010
As worries about the public finances spread throughout the euro-zone, France is the latest to edge on to the radar screens. Given a relatively low stock of debt and healthy economic outlook, its situation looks far better than that of Greece, Spain or …
8th February 2010
Although some euro-zone office markets saw a rise in take-up at the end of 2009, we do not think that this spells the end of the occupier market downturn. The fragile state of the economic recovery and weak outlook for labour markets in the euro-zone …
Last week, the noose around the Greek Government’s neck loosened slightly. But markets are still baying for blood – Portugal and Spain are their new targets. Neither Portugal nor Spain have quite the credibility problems of Greece, but both face …
The ECB is set to announce further plans to phase out unconventional policy support after its meeting next month. But with the Bank’s call for fiscal consolidation highlighting the downward pressure on future growth and inflation, official interest rates …
4th February 2010
Spanish retail rents have held up surprisingly well given the severe downturn in the consumer sector. However, with unemployment at nearly 20%, household debt levels high and taxes set to rise this year, the outlook for consumers is bleak. This will hit …
The limited economic data so far released for January suggest that the new year has got off to a pretty sluggish start. The euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell for the first time in 11 months and suggests that GDP growth has yet to gather …
3rd February 2010
The European Commission’s endorsement of the Greek Government’s plan to get its public finances under control is unlikely to relieve market concerns over Greece’s position altogether. … EC’s endorsement won’t fully relieve Greek …
December’s euro-zone retail sales figures suggested that total consumer spending fell in Q4, adding to signs that the overall recovery lost pace. What’s more, January’s final PMI survey pointed to only a modest rise in activity at the start of this year. …
Fears that the further rise in Greek bond yields over the last week has stretched the public finances to breaking point may be a little over-done. Nonetheless, Greece still faces an enormous challenge if it is to meet its financing requirements and step …
2nd February 2010
France is one of few economies that seem to be experiencing a consumer revival. Sadly, fiscal tightening will prevent the recovery from gaining much momentum. But a fairly healthy household sector should still lead growth to outpace that in much of the …
1st February 2010
A raft of data on the euro-zone consumer sector last week left the outlook still rather uncertain. The bad news was that unemployment rose further in December and wage growth looks set to drop. But the EC’s consumer confidence index points to a marked …
January’s flash euro-zone consumer prices figures further highlighted the distinct lack of inflation pressure in the region and offered hope that euro-zone consumers will escape the squeeze on spending power facing their US and UK counterparts. … …
29th January 2010
December’s euro-zone money supply figures and January’s ECB Bank Lending Survey suggest that credit conditions in the region remain very tight, despite the ECB’s unlimited provision of liquidity to banks. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
January’s improvement in the EC euro-zone consumer and business survey was somewhat reassuring after the weaker tone of some of the recent other surveys. But we will need to see a sharper rise in sentiment in the coming months to be convinced that the …
28th January 2010
The ECB meeting on February 4th is likely to be uneventful, with interest rates on hold and no significant change to existing plans to gradually phase out unconventional support for the banking sector. The Bank will return to a system of auctioning off …
The recent blow-out in Greek Government bond spreads seems to over-do the depth of its fiscal problems compared to those of other crisis economies like Ireland. But Greece has clearly lost the markets’ confidence and may now have to work much harder than …
January’s fall in German consumer price inflation confirmed that households’ real incomes are being squeezed by much less than those elsewhere by rising prices. And inflation looks set to remain very subdued for the foreseeable future. … German Consumer …
27th January 2010
The RICS Global Commercial Property Survey released today confirmed that investment market activity in Western Europe rose in 2009Q4. It also indicated that the investment market recovery will be sustained in the near term. However, while we share that …
The markets and credit rating agencies had been looking to yesterday’s budget for confirmation that the Portuguese Government is prepared to follow other fiscally strained euro-zone economies in introducing tough measures to improve its public finances. …
January’s sharper than expected increase in German Ifo business sentiment came as a relief after the deterioration in some other surveys lately. The rise in the composite Business Climate Index, from 94.7 to 95.8, left it at an 18-month high and in line …
26th January 2010
Hints from the German Government that promised income tax cuts could be put off until at least next year make a convincing consumer revival seem even less likely. But we still expect a relatively strong pick-up in exports to mean that Germany leads the …
25th January 2010
The rise in industrial orders and production in the euro-zone in November is encouraging news for industrial property. However, with ample spare capacity in the sector, and the outlook for consumer spending and thus demand for distribution space still …
The recent sharp rise in CPI inflation in both the US and the UK has caused concern that interest rate hikes might not be far off. But euro-zone inflation has been far more subdued, challenging the conventional wisdom that prices in the region are …
Europe’s economies have continued to benefit from the improvement in the global environment, but there are still major uncertainties over the likely strength and sustainability of the upturn in the region. Domestic economic conditions have generally …
21st January 2010
January’s small fall in the euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) supports the message from Tuesday’s ZEW survey that the recovery might be losing momentum. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
As Eastern Europe limps out of recession, enthusiasm for euro accession appears to be building. In a speech yesterday, Hungarian PM Gordon Bajnai said that his country should adopt the euro ‘as soon as possible’ and, much to our surprise, Estonia looks …
20th January 2010
January’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment confirmed that confidence in the recovery remains fragile. We still see the German economy expanding by a pretty healthy 2.0% this year, but the downside risks appear to be increasing. … German ZEW …
19th January 2010
We think that commercial property returns in Norway will be higher over the next few years than anywhere else in Western Europe. This Update elaborates on our thinking and also highlights some of the risks around our view. … Norway: property outlook …
We expect the divergence between the investor market and the occupier market, which started to appear in 2009, to continue in 2010. Initial data suggest that, although still low by historical standards, European investment volumes rose again in 2009Q4. By …
18th January 2010
Recent developments support our view that the euro will come under renewed downward pressure in the coming months. With concerns about Greece mounting, economic prospects deteriorating compared to the US and ECB interest rates set to remain on hold, we …
The latest Spanish housing market data suggest that the residential property downturn continued to ease in the latter part of 2009. Nonetheless, we think that house prices still have much further to fall. This, coupled with high household indebtedness and …
15th January 2010
November’s fall in euro-zone exports could signal that the strong euro is beginning to take its toll on exporters. Nonetheless, in Q4 at least, the external sector is likely to have continued to support the wider economy. … Euro-zone Trade Bal. (Nov.) & …
There were no surprises from the ECB today as it waits to judge the impact of previously announced plans to phase out its emergency lending to banks. But the Bank’s cautious tone on the economic outlook supports our view that official interest rates will …
14th January 2010
November’s strong gain in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still coping fairly well with the euro’s strength. But industrial activity still looks unlikely to boost the economy as strongly in Q4 as it did in Q3. … Euro-zone …
We think that the UK, French and Polish markets seem undervalued by about 10% to 20%, while the Belgian and German markets look to be around fair value. The Finnish, Hungarian, Italian, Spanish and Swedish markets all still appear overvalued, by about 5% …
13th January 2010
December’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation, from 0.5% to 0.9%, left it at a ten-month high. But the increase was due to a further rise in energy inflation, which should soon begin to moderate. Meanwhile, the pressure on underlying or core inflation …
12th January 2010
Recent suggestions that Portugal may be “the next Greece” overlook the fact that Portugal’s economic and fiscal position is fundamentally healthier. Still, this month’s budget may need to reveal decisive deficit-reducing measures to appease the markets …
The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past and a further appreciation of the franc remains a key …
11th January 2010
For some time, we have been fairly optimistic about the prospects for the euro-zone in 2010. Nonetheless, the outlook remains highly uncertain and there are several risks which could derail the recovery were they to materialise. … New Year challenges for …
November’s renewed increase in German industrial production is a welcome sign that the recovery there is back on track. But with unemployment still rising in the euro-zone as a whole, it could be some time before consumers join in. … German Industrial …
8th January 2010
After outlining the start of its exit strategy last month, we doubt that the ECB will announce any further changes at the forthcoming meeting. The Bank might increase the interest rate on its threemonth loans in the not too distant future or return to …
7th January 2010
The latest fall in euro-zone retail sales confirmed that the wider economic recovery has not yet spread to the consumer sector, despite nine consecutive monthly rises in consumer confidence. And, as the full effect of the weakened retail environment of …
December’s rise in the EC measure of euro-zone economic sentiment was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, though, November’s fall in retail sales confirmed that the recovery has yet to reach the household sector. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales …
Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off annual euro-zone GDP growth from 2011. And with …
The Greek Government’s pledge to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2012 appears to be encouraging news for markets. But the scale of the adjustment required suggests that the Government will struggle to meet its targets without prompting a huge …
6th January 2010
Euro-zone producer price inflation continued to inch up in November. But it remains deep in negative territory, suggesting that pipeline inflationary pressures remain very weak and that core CPI inflation will continue to slow this year. … Euro-zone …
We expect commercial property rental values in Germany to fall across all sectors in 2010 and stabilise in 2011. In particular, we doubt that recent signs of an improvement in the German labour market will be sustained. Indeed, as government wage …
5th January 2010
