Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The key message from the raft of Q4 GDP data released today is that the region’s recovery is continuing but that the underlying pace of growth is now starting to slow in a number of countries. … Recovery continues but low hanging fruit has been …
15th February 2011
The modest rise in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4 is likely to have been partly down to one-off weather-related factors, suggesting that the recovery may regain momentum at the start of this year. Nonetheless, the disappointing growth figures for the …
As expected, the Swedish Riksbank responded to the economy’s ongoing robust revival by raising interest rates and revising up its interest rate forecast. Nonetheless, we still think that weaker than anticipated growth this year and the strong currency …
The renewed contraction in Portuguese GDP in Q4 last year underlines the fragility of the outlook for the economy. With political tensions rising and government bond yields uncomfortably high, Portugal still seems to be the next in line to be forced to …
14th February 2011
December’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production was probably down to the unusually severe winter weather and does little to alter the view that the sector remains the key driver behind the economic recovery in the region. … Euro-zone Industrial …
On the face of it, recent data suggest that the euro-zone is on track to expand at a pretty healthy pace in Q4. But we suspect that the disruption caused by the bad weather will mean that Q4’s growth figures may be rather disappointing. While there is …
After a month of respite, the surge in Portuguese ten year government bond yields to new euro-era highs has reignited fears that Portugal may still need outside support. Even if Portugal isn’t forced to accept a bail-out as part of the euro-zone’s crisis …
10th February 2011
Speculation is growing that the next Irish Government will attempt to restructure some of the nationalised banks’ senior debt. But such a move, while no doubt popular with taxpayers, would do little to improve the public finances. … Bank debt plans won’t …
9th February 2011
On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging signs that the Government may be getting its fiscal …
December’s sharp fall in German industrial production is not as worrying as it seems. Although GDP growth in Q4 will not be as strong as we had previously anticipated, owing to bad weather, it still looks set to broadly match Q3’s healthy rise. … German …
8th February 2011
Italy’s historic position as one of the euro-zone’s most expensive retail markets might suggest that the recent stability of Italian retail yields, while yields in other euro-zone markets have fallen, is a temporary phase. Yet, a weak consumer spending …
The latest macro indicators for Spain paint a weak picture of industrial occupier demand. Unfortunately, our view that the economy will tip back into recession this year suggests that high levels of spare capacity will persist and that industrial rental …
7th February 2011
Peripheral euro-zone bond yields fell further last week in apparent anticipation of the so-called “Grand Bargain” of policy measures. But the markets’ optimism raises the danger that the package falls short of hopes of a “bazooka” to aim at the debt …
The lack of a further step-up in the ECB’s anti-inflation rhetoric today supports our view that the Bank is unlikely to tighten policy in the near future. Nonetheless, its generally hawkish stance, and the effects of this on the euro exchange rate, …
3rd February 2011
Over the next few years, office markets in Warsaw, Moscow and Istanbul look set to continue outperforming other Emerging European capitals. Indeed, brighter GDP and employment growth prospects suggest that strengthening occupier demand will support decent …
Ireland’s next Government will push for better terms on its existing bail-out package, but it will enter discussions in a weak bargaining position. Even if it does gain major concessions there is a strong chance that weaker than anticipated growth will …
2nd February 2011
The further rise in euro-zone CPI inflation at the start of 2011 will have done little to ease the ECB’s fears that price pressures in the region are building. Nonetheless, inflation remains far lower than in mid-2008, the last time the ECB raised …
1st February 2011
Expectations are growing that euro-zone leaders will soon agree to a series of new measures - collectively labelled the “grand bargain” - to bolster the policies already in place to deal with the region’s debt crisis. But they are likely to come with …
The latest euro-zone data provide encouraging signs that the economic recovery is filtering through to the labour market and that the industrial sector is still expanding strongly. But large divergences between the core and periphery remain. … Euro-zone …
The relative importance of the banking and financial services industries to the Frankfurt office market could mean that occupier demand will recover faster here than elsewhere in Germany. Meanwhile, with relatively low availability in the most …
31st January 2011
Last week’s successful first EFSF bond issue was hailed by some as a strong vote of confidence in the euro-zone. We are not so sure. The rise in Portuguese bond yields back up to the 7% danger level suggests that the facility may soon be needed again. …
In non-euro-zone Europe, we envisage a divergence between the performance of commercial property markets in emerging and developed economies. Reflecting the relatively strong outlook for economic growth in Russia, Turkey and Poland, commercial property …
28th January 2011
Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead, the bigger risk may be the lingering impact on …
The latest euro-zone money and credit data continue to suggest that inflationary pressures in the region as a whole remain subdued, adding to evidence that the recent sharp rise in the headline CPI inflation will prove temporary. … Euro-zone Monetary …
At February’s press conference, President Trichet looks set to maintain a fairly hawkish tone, adding to fears that the ECB might raise interest rates later this year and possibly placing further upward pressure on the euro. The ongoing problems in the …
27th January 2011
The further rise in German CPI inflation in January is likely to add to the ECB’s worries about building inflationary pressures. But the chances of inflation reaching the levels seen in mid 2008, when the ECB last hiked interest rates, remain low. … …
January’s EC business and consumer survey adds to evidence that the euro-zone economy has made a pretty good start to the year. But the recovery remains heavily reliant on the industrial and external sectors. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
Survey evidence suggests that German commercial property, retail in particular, is now at the top of cross-border investors’ target lists, while the UK has slid down the rankings. This shift in preferences may well be justified for risk management …
The recent bail-out and banking support measures may have pulled Ireland back from the brink of imminent disaster. But the economy and the public finances remain in an extremely precarious position. Indeed, with Ireland at risk of a Japanese-style “lost …
26th January 2011
Most of the peripheral euro-zone economies appear to have made some inroads into their large budget deficits last year, with Spain taking the lead. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
25th January 2011
There are few signs that the euro-zone recovery has yet to encompass domestic demand. Therefore, as the boost to growth from exports fades, all member states will see growth slow to some extent in 2011. While other Western European economies will …
News that the Spanish Government will force the troubled banks to boost their capital ratios is an encouraging sign that it is trying to tackle the economy’s fundamental problems. But we doubt that the measures mark a turning point for Spain. … Spanish …
Ireland’s coming general election provides hope that months of political uncertainty may be about to end. But whatever the outcome, the economy and public finances will remain in a precarious state. … Ireland's political turmoil not as disastrous as it …
24th January 2011
January’s PMI surveys suggest that the euro-zone has made a pretty solid start to the year. But the upbeat data for the euro-zone as a whole continue to mask wide divergences between the region’s core and peripheral economies. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
European policymakers’ hopes of preventing the peripheral debt crisis from escalating further are continuing to focus heavily on the role of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Not only will the first bond issue to raise funds for the …
21st January 2011
Portugal has survived its first market tests of 2011 and resisted pressure to accept outside support. But with government bond yields still at very high levels, the Government’s struggle to go without assistance will continue. A renewed bout of political …
January’s Ifo index echoes the upbeat tone of most of the other short-term indicators on the German economy, including the ZEW survey released earlier this week. … German Ifo Survey …
The European economy has largely shrugged off the ongoing fiscal crisis in the euro-zone periphery and continued to expand at a healthy pace. But while the improvement in the global environment and the weaker euro bode well for exporters, the boost to …
20th January 2011
January’s healthy rise in the headline German ZEW index suggests that, for now at least, investor sentiment is continuing to be buoyed by the upbeat economic data and the weaker euro. … German ZEW …
18th January 2011
In adopting a more hawkish tone last week, when core euro-zone inflation is running at just 1.1%, the ECB has increased doubts over its ability to grasp the seriousness of the situation facing the euro-zone and its likely willingness to provide further …
17th January 2011
December’s final euro-zone CPI inflation figures should calm fears that underlying inflation pressures are building. But with headline CPI inflation likely to rise in early 2011, the ECB’s stance could turn more hawkish over the coming months. … Euro-zone …
14th January 2011
After leaving interest rates on hold, the ECB provided no indication that it is about to respond to the ongoing euro-zone fiscal crisis by adopting bolder unconventional policy measures. … ECB remains reluctant to do …
13th January 2011
Finland’s strong external trade links should mean that industrial occupier demand in Helsinki holds up better than many other euro-zone cities over the next couple of years. And given that industrial rents are low compared to mid-2000 levels, there is …
Recent news on the euro-zone household sector has placed a dent in hopes that the external recovery is spreading to the domestic economy. November’s sharp drop in retail sales, and Q3’s downward revision to household spending growth suggest that consumer …
12th January 2011
November’s healthy rise in euro-zone industrial production adds to evidence that the recovery continued in Q4. But the ever-widening divergences between different countries continue to cast doubts on the future sustainability of the recovery. … Euro-zone …
It now seems a matter of when, rather than if, Portugal will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting some form of European/IMF bail-out. But will this signal the beginning of the end of the euro-zone debt crisis or the start of a new, more dangerous, …
11th January 2011
The euro-zone economic data released since Christmas has been fairly encouraging and suggests that, for now at least, the region continues to expand at a pretty healthy pace. But on the face of it, there are growing signs that inflationary pressures may …
10th January 2011
The latest euro-zone data once again highlight the huge divergences that are building up in the region and may also add to fears that the industrial recovery is failing to spread to other sectors of the economy. … Euro-zone Unemp. (Nov.) & GDP (Q3) & …
7th January 2011
Once again, the ECB faces the tough task of balancing a raft of bad news from the euro-zone’s periphery with the more positive developments elsewhere and the fact that CPI inflation has risen above target. While the ECB will keep open the option of …
6th January 2011
