Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
December’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI did nothing to alter our view that the region is heading into a fairly deep recession, regardless of how the debt crisis develops. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Emp. (Q3) & HICP Inflation …
15th December 2011
October’s euro-zone industrial production data add to evidence that the wider economy may have contracted pretty sharply in Q4. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
14th December 2011
Recent changes to the ECB’s bank lending operations and the news that national central banks may lend to the IMF have raised hopes that support for the region’s most troubled economies is being increased via the back door. But even if this is so, we doubt …
13th December 2011
Despite rising slightly in December, the German ZEW index points to a risk of recession in the coming months. … German ZEW Survey …
In recent years, the spread between Spanish retail and office yields has switched from positive to negative. This is typical in other countries and also squares with the long-run outperformance by Spanish retail rents. Thus, the negative spread is no …
At their summit last week, euro-zone leaders agreed on the basics of a new “fiscal compact” which should help to reduce the risks that another debt crisis such as that seen over the last two years is ever allowed to develop. What the summit did not …
12th December 2011
The economic and financial market dislocations that will arise from a break-up of the euro-zone will have severe, negative consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Indeed, we think that over the next two years, a rise in yields and renewed …
9th December 2011
While the ECB met expectations of a further cut in interest rates and greater support for banks today, it shattered hopes that it is about to fire a silver bullet into the heart of the debt crisis. … ECB shatters hopes of a "silver …
8th December 2011
Hopes that euro-zone policymakers will hatch a new “grand plan” to save the euro-zone may have grown, but evidence is mounting that the region is on the cusp of another deep recession. In November, the euro-zone composite PMI remained well below the …
It is not hard to see why the financial markets have responded positively to the latest proposals to save the euro: they seem to open the door to immediate financial help from the ECB and provide a long-term plan to prevent future crises. But we suspect …
7th December 2011
Recent euro-zone developments may have brought Italy back from the brink again. But Italy will still need years of financial assistance from the rest of the region and to go through years of severe pain if it is to reduce its public debt to a sustainable …
October’s German and Italian industrial production data do little to alter the likelihood that the euro-zone has fallen back into recession in the fourth quarter. … German & Italian Industrial Production …
The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP does nothing to alter our view that the region is on the brink of another deep recession. … Euro-zone GDP Breakdown …
6th December 2011
The financial markets seem to be gambling that the European Central Bank and Germany are bluffing when they say they are not about to come to the euro’s rescue. But given the obstacles still in the way of a decisive solution to the crisis, it is a big …
5th December 2011
Policy stimulus is usually positive for Chinese equities but if it comes against a backdrop of a euro-zone break-up, gains are likely to be relatively low. In these circumstances, we would also expect renminbi appreciation to slow to a crawl. … What …
2nd December 2011
November’s purchasing managers’ surveys suggest the euro-zone is sinking into an even deeper recession even while the US manufacturing sector has strengthened. … Growing divergence between US and euro-zone …
1st December 2011
We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of countries, no corner of the euro-zone is likely to …
Q3’s plunge in Swedish consumer spending suggests that the outlook for the retail property market has deteriorated. Nevertheless, the low retail vacancy rate in Stockholm, together with strong demand from international retailers, is likely to prevent …
The European Central Bank will respond to the growing evidence that the euro-zone economy is heading back into recession by cutting interest rates to 1% at its December 8th meeting. What’s more, President Draghi is likely to announce the provision of …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirmed that the economy is finally beginning to suffer from the franc’s strength. With the currency remaining strong and demand from the eurozone set to slump, the economy will struggle to expand at all next year. … Swiss GDP …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirmed that the economy is finally beginning to suffer from the franc’s strength. With the currency remaining strong and demand from the eurozone set to slump, the economy will struggle to expand at all next year. … Swiss GDP (Q3 …
The latest fiscal data suggest that Ireland remains on track to meet its budget deficit target for this year. But the near-term outlook for the public finances in Southern Europe is more downbeat. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
30th November 2011
We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of a change to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are four main changes. First, we expect the euro to fall more quickly …
The latest euro-zone data revealed a nasty combination of high inflation and rising unemployment to add to the region’s troubles. … Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment …
Led by Poland and Russia, commercial property markets in CEE have been a relatively bright spot for investment in Europe. Yet, even here, growth in quarterly investment volumes has begun to slow. And despite survey evidence which still points to …
29th November 2011
November’s EC business and consumer surveys support the message from other timely indicators that the euro-zone is entering a deep recession. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
Q3’s GDP figures revealed that, for now at least, the Swedish economy continues to expand rapidly. Nonetheless, we expect the deepening euro-zone debt crisis to hit Sweden before too long, prompting growth to slow sharply next year. … Swedish GDP …
Q3’s GDP figures revealed that, for now at least, the Swedish economy continues to expand rapidly. Nonetheless, we expect the deepening euro-zone debt crisis to hit Sweden before too long, prompting growth to slow sharply next year. … Swedish GDP (Q3 …
The continued escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis suggests that some form of break-up of the currency union is now likely to come sooner rather than later. We expect Greece to leave the euro in 2012, with at least one further departure in 2013. And …
28th November 2011
The latest monetary data have revealed rising strains in the banking sector as the euro-zone’s debt crisis has deepened. While the ECB has continued to provide banks with liquidity, it has stopped short of buying enough government bonds to tackle the root …
Last week’s rise in German bund yields might have reflected expectations that Germany has finally accepted the need to shoulder more of the peripheral economies’ fiscal risk. After all, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has pushed for a general move towards …
Retail rental value growth in Amsterdam over the past year has been strong relative to other euro-zone markets and also relative to the office sector. In our view, there is little justification for the retail market’s outperformance and, in fact, we think …
24th November 2011
Germany is caught between a rock and a hard place. If she rides to the rescue of her neighbours, she will undermine her own credit standing. If she chooses not to, the euro-zone will probably collapse. This unsavoury dilemma had already led to us to …
November’s slightly stronger Ifo survey will do little to ease the growing concerns over the outlook for Germany in the wake of yesterday’s unsuccessful bund auction. … German Ifo Survey & GDP Breakdown …
Austria’s decision to restrict lending by its banks to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe reflects a broader shift in sentiment on the part of Western banks away from supporting units further east. This in turn makes Emerging Europe more vulnerable should …
23rd November 2011
November’s flash PMI surveys provided further support for our view that the damaging effects of the euro-zone’s ongoing debt crisis are likely to push the region’s economy back into a deep and protracted recession. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
Jointly issued euro-zone bonds might represent the move into full-blown fiscal union that could be needed to preserve the single currency area in the long run. But opposition from Germany suggests that, at best, such a move is a long way off. And even if …
22nd November 2011
Greece is on the cusp of a sovereign default that could still be either “orderly” or “disorderly”. An orderly default would cause less upheaval in the markets, but any respite would probably be shortlived. A disorderly default would cause disruption of a …
The yields on government bonds issued by France, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands have risen sharply in recent weeks in a worrying sign that the euro-zone’s debt crisis is starting to rot its “core” (with the notable exception of Germany). We suspect …
21st November 2011
Uncertainty about the euro-zone economic outlook is prompting property investors to act more cautiously. Activity in Q3 was driven by deals initiated before the summer’s turmoil. We agree with survey evidence which points to a slowing investment market …
There are still few signs that euro-zone policymakers are close to placing a firewall around the region’s most troubled economies. This, combined with the deteriorating economic outlook, led some of the core economies’ government bond yields to continue …
Details have begun to emerge of the revised debt exchange proposed for Greece. The good news is that a larger haircut will make her debt more manageable, all else equal. The bad news is that all else is not equal. Calm in the financial markets is unlikely …
16th November 2011
Financial markets seem finally to have started to accept that the euro-zone might actually break up. Regular readers will not be surprised to hear that we think this process has considerably further to go. … Are markets starting to price in a euro …
The prospect of a renewed recession in Italy is likely to mean that in each of the next two years all of the main commercial property sectors will see capital value falls. But the weak outlook for consumer spending suggests that retail returns over …
The consensus view is that continued buoyant demand from China will prevent the prices of industrial commodities, such as crude oil and copper, from falling very far, despite the worsening financial and economic crisis in the euro-zone. But this view is …
Although Spain is in a rather better position than its Southern European counterparts, the next Government still faces huge challenges and is unlikely to overcome them without outside help. … Will the new Spanish Government steady the …
Growing concerns about France threaten to take the euro-zone crisis to a new level. If a further rise in bond yields or large bank losses leave France unable to support the periphery, the burden on Germany and the few remaining “core” economies might …
Our baseline scenario is that an escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone will contribute to further large falls in almost all commodity prices over the next year or so, with gold and silver among the few exceptions. However, it is also worth …
15th November 2011
The euro-zone’s modest expansion in Q3 could be the last for some time. With more timely indicators already very weak and the debt crisis set to deepen, the risks of another very sharp recession in the region are growing rapidly. … Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & …
The idea that the European Central Bank (ECB) will fire a “silver bullet” into the euro-zone crisis by printing vast amounts of money to prop up the Italian bond market looks optimistic. Not only is the ECB itself vehemently opposed to the idea, but it …
14th November 2011
