Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
While early signs indicate that Greece’s debt buyback will be a success, it will not bring an end to the country’s fiscal crisis. … Debt buyback won't transform Greece's fiscal …
4th December 2012
Above-average falls in rental values and a rising yield gap with core markets both suggest that there is growing scope for commercial property in the peripheral euro-zone economies to outperform. Unfortunately, the drag exerted by the euro-zone crisis and …
Credit Suisse’s announcement that it will charge other banks for holding large Swiss franc deposits with it has helped to ease the pressure on the currency for now. But while we have revised down our near term forecast for the franc, we still see it …
Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral economieswould fare relatively well outside the currency union. … …
3rd December 2012
Last week’s bail-out agreement has prompted some commentators to suggest that Greece’s future in the euro-zone should now be secure until at least next autumn. But we are not convinced. Indeed, given the doubts over the effectiveness of the debt buyback …
If the euro-zone crisis worsens and economic growth in Norway and Sweden disappoints, property yields in both Oslo and Stockholm are likely to rise by 30bps to 50bps over the next 12-18 months. Although our central forecasts do not envisage a marked shift …
30th November 2012
The latest news on the euro-zone labour market and inflation further underlined the general weakness of the region’s economy. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Flash CPI …
Having boldly pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro back in the summer, ECB President Mario Draghi has struck a noticeably more cautious tone over recent months. We expect more of the same at the post-Governing Council meeting press conference …
29th November 2012
Sharp appreciations in the euro-zone’s core countries would threaten to damage their exports and GDP in the event of a euro-zone break-up. But there are various policies that could be implemented to stimulate domestic spending, which might even make them …
Although Greece, Portugal and Ireland are making some fiscal progress, Italy and Spain are still struggling to cut their budget deficits … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
November’s EC consumer and business survey does not alter our view that the consensus forecast for the euro-zone economy broadly to stagnate in 2013 is far too optimistic. A deep recession still looks likely. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
Swiss and Swedish GDP figures for Q3 showed that the two economies remained resilient despite the euro-zone’s troubles. But while both may avoid deep recessions next year, we expect growth to be much weaker than the consensus forecasts. … Swiss & Swedish …
The latest euro-zone monetary data revealed a further small acceleration in the growth of money and bank lending in the region. But weak credit growth remains a major constraint on economic activity inside the single currency area. … Euro-zone Monetary …
28th November 2012
Outside the peripheral markets, the economic downturn in the euro-zone has yet to have a material impact on commercial property values. Yet if the recession deepens as we anticipate, the next six months should bring more widespread evidence that yields …
27th November 2012
Euro-zone policymakers have found a bit more money down the back of the sofa to buy another sticking plaster for Greece. But the relatively easy options are running out fast. … Greek deal delays the day of …
Euro-zone finance ministers are inching ever closer to a deal on the bail-out which will satisfy their own debt sustainability criteria and in the near term at least avoid a politically troublesome official sector debt restructuring. … Another Greek …
26th November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ifo Survey (Nov.) & GDP Breakdown (Q3) …
23rd November 2012
We think that weak retail fundamentals in Belgium don’t warrant the currently low level of retail property yields in Brussels. Indeed, our forecast that consumer spending and retail rents are likely to fall suggests that investors’ required yields will …
22nd November 2012
The news that Cyprus is about to run out of money has given a dangerous new angle to the euro-zone crisis. The economy is so small that a bail-out would be very cheap, but the Government will be particularly reluctant to accept the conditions on which …
The slight rise in the flash euro-zone composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in November clearly does nothing to alter our view that the recession has intensified in Q4. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
Consistent with the slowdown in the region’s economies, the upturn in commercial property rents in Scandinavia seems to have stalled. Given that, we think that yields will begin to rise before long, and in turn property prices will soften. Elsewhere, the …
21st November 2012
A euro-zone break-up would see the re-instated domestic currencies of the region’s core economies appreciate sharply. Without appropriate policy action, the resulting damage to exports would more than offset the boost to consumer spending from falling …
20th November 2012
Despite the fall in overall GDP in Q3, Norway is still weathering the euro-zone debt crisis rather well. … Norwegian GDP (Q3) …
The direct effect of the latest downgrade of France should be modest. But it threatens to deepen the political rift between France and Germany, making policies to tackle the euro-zone’s debt crisis more difficult to agree. And by increasing the pressure …
Despite the fall in overall GDP in Q3, Norway is still weathering the euro-zone debt crisis rather well. … Norwegian GDP (Q3 12) …
Last week’s euro-zone economic data brought some reasons for hope. While GDP in the region as a whole fell for the second quarter running in Q3, both Germany and France posted modest expansions, perhaps suggesting that the two might yet drag the rest of …
19th November 2012
In Q3, the euro-zone economy entered recession. For now, across the euro-zone as a whole commercial property rents and yields are pretty much flat. But if we are right that the region’s economic climate will deteriorate over the next 18 months, capital …
16th November 2012
Q3’s GDP data confirmed that, despite continued growth in Germany and France, the euro-zone as a whole is now officially in recession. We expect the recession to deepen markedly in the coming quarters. … Euro-zone GDP (Q3 …
15th November 2012
The public disagreement between the IMF and euro-zone reveals underlying tensions over whether core euro-zone governments will accept haircuts on their share of Greece’s public debt and concern among the IMF’s non-European shareholders that it is pumping …
14th November 2012
September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production and the weak Greek and Portuguese Q3 GDP data provided additional firm evidence that the region’s economic problems continue to mount. … Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Greek & Portuguese GDP …
We suspect that policymakers may find a way to meet the estimated increase in Greece’s borrowing needs for the remainder of its bail-out deal without providing bigger loans. But if the economic forecasts on which the revised programme are based turn out …
13th November 2012
At the margins, a case could be made that Turkey’s sovereign debt upgrade could boost investor sentiment towards all Turkish assets, including property. But, in 2013, given the prospect of tight credit conditions and weaker occupier demand, the upgrade …
12th November 2012
The common perception that the euro-zone’s core economies are inherently dependent on exports and would struggle to grow outside the single currency is misplaced. They all achieved pretty strong growth before the euro and could probably do so again …
We’re throwing in the towel on a Greek euro exit in 2012. But that’s a matter of timing, not a change in our fundamental position on Greece or on the broader debt crisis. We still envisage a limited euro-zone break-up, probably commencing in 2013 with the …
Recent data from RICS showing that occupier demand in France has been falling are consistent with figures showing that office and industrial take-up has weakened significantly. The data also look consistent with our forecast that, in 2013, French property …
9th November 2012
If we are right that the euro-zone economy will continue to weaken, the drag on economic activity in non-euro-zone European economies is likely to intensify. As a result, occupier markets in non-euro-zone economies will soften, meaning that rental values …
8th November 2012
The economic backdrop to euro-zone commercial property markets continues to deteriorate. Our forecasts, that all member states will experience some falls in economic output next year, appear to be on track. Recession will put downward pressure on rental …
While the ECB apparently stands ready to buy peripheral governments’ bonds, President Draghi gave little assurance today about when it might start or how many it might purchase. He also ruled out writing off any of Greece’s debt and gave no firm …
The passing of the omnibus bill by Parliament last night means that Greece has taken a decisive step towards gaining the next loan tranche of its latest bail-out. But although this has reduced the chance of Greece exiting the euro-zone this year, we still …
The economic data has provided somewhat conflicting messages on the likely strength of the euro-zone economy during the third quarter of the year. While the hard data on industrial production and retail sales have pointed to a better performance than the …
7th November 2012
September’s German industrial production figures poured cold water on recent talk of a recovery in the euro-zone’s biggest economy. … German Industrial Production (Sep. …
Fresh signs of life in the consumer sector, together with relatively low retail property prices, seem to have prompted investor interest in the Romanian retail market. But the immediate outlook for consumer spending is weak and, although there is …
We suspect that the recent rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate is a sign of things to come and see the rate peaking at about 13.5% next year. This, together with continued fiscal austerity, is likely to mean pretty sharp falls in households’ real …
6th November 2012
October’s ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that banks tightened their lending criteria further despite easing strains related to the sovereign debt crisis. And weak demand for loans was a more commonly reported factor holding back lending than short …
5th November 2012
The ECB seems set to remain on standby this month. With just the announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme still buoying market sentiment, the Bank has yet to be called upon to act. But we think that the ECB will have to start …
1st November 2012
Recent business surveys do nothing to undermine our forecast that Germany will lapse back into recession next year. Admittedly, that recession should be mild. But that is unlikely to prevent commercial property rental values from falling by up to 5% over …
Over the next couple of crucial weeks, we suspect that Greek and euro-zone policymakers will hatch a deal to prevent, at least temporarily, the collapse of Greece’s rescue package. But as always, there is plenty of scope for a nasty surprise and we still …
The results of this morning’s Q3 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggest that both occupier and investment demand for commercial property in the euro-zone is likely to weaken in the near term. And with many banks reportedly still keen to cut their exposure to the …
31st October 2012
The rise in euro-zone unemployment in September, coupled with the high level of CPI inflation, does not bode well for consumer spending in the latter part of 2012. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) & Flash CPI …
