Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are too optimistic and that the next interest rate move …
3rd July 2013
Although the peripheral economies remain mired in recession, some fiscal progress is being made, particularly in Greece. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
2nd July 2013
News that the Irish economy is back in recession is a reminder that Dublin’s property market still faces significant headwinds. Indeed, all-property capital values in Dublin could yet suffer another modest reverse. But a complete relapse in Dublin’s …
The latest euro-zone inflation and labour market figures brought a slight note of caution after the recent improvement in some of the region’s activity indicators. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment …
1st July 2013
Recently, euro-zone policy makers have made commendable progress towards banking union. They have now agreed an ‘operational framework’ for the region’s bail-out fund, the ESM, to recapitalise banks and drawn up a new regime to ‘bail-in’ bank creditors. …
With the news that the US Fed is set to taper its QE programme hitting euro-zone financial markets, President Draghi should provide reassurance about ongoing ECB policy support at the forthcoming press conference. While we do not expect policy changes …
27th June 2013
The EC consumer and business survey for June made pretty encouraging reading, but it remains too soon to conclude that the euro-zone is on the cusp of an economic recovery. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
May’s monetary data revealed that bank credit contracted again, reinforcing our belief that the ECB will be forced into further action by the end of the year. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May …
The recent rise in bond yields is unlikely to feed automatically into higher European property yields. But to the extent that it increases concerns about the growth outlook and debt burdens, the upside risks to property yields are probably greatest in the …
26th June 2013
In spite of Slovenia’s low public debt and small banks, the country is in a very precarious position given the scale of the rot in the banking sector. To avoid a bail-out, the Government will need to press ahead with an ambitious reform agenda and hope …
The post-credit crunch underperformance by logistics capital values in France relative to the office and retail sectors may leave scope for a period of outperformance. Yet this morning’s business survey data point to worsening economic conditions to come …
25th June 2013
While the withdrawal of the smallest party from the Greek coalition is certainly an unwelcome development, for now at least, the Government should be able to limp on. But if the Troika forces it to undertake further austerity measures, then voters may …
24th June 2013
June’s German Ifo survey echoed the slightly firmer tone of other recent indicators. But it certainly did not suggest that the euro-zone’s biggest economy is embarking on a spectacular recovery. … German Ifo Survey …
Labour cost data released last week provided further evidence that the competitiveness gap between the euro-zone periphery and core may be narrowing. While labour costs were little unchanged or lower than a year earlier in the periphery, German labour …
Improvements in Spanish economic sentiment suggest that the recession has eased in the second quarter. Given that there is plenty of headroom for Spanish office and industrial capital values to rise from current low levels, the property market might be …
20th June 2013
We doubt that the new growth measures adopted by the Italian government will have much effect on the economy and still expect the 2013 budget deficit to be well above target. Based on this and Italy’s weak economic fundamentals, we expect concerns about …
The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about financial stability once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But the Bank once again pushed back its hiking cycle, reinforcing our belief that a rate …
June’s euro-zone PMI survey continued the upward trend of recent months, but still suggests that the euro-zone economy contracted for a seventh quarter running in Q2. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
The low level of Stockholm office yields reflects safe haven demand and Sweden’s comparatively strong economy. These factors are likely to support yields for the next year or so. On a five-year view, however, the balance of probability points to Stockholm …
19th June 2013
A further rise in global bond yields could push borrowing costs for some euro-zone governments back towards danger levels and underline the limitations of the ECB’s OMT programme. … Could a global bond sell-off reignite the euro-zone …
We doubt that the recent bout of political uncertainty, coupled with concerns over the Government’s ability to meet the privatisation targets set by the Troika, poses a serious near-term threat to Greece’s bail-out. But we still think that the long-term …
18th June 2013
The rise in the headline ZEW index in June reinforced other data in pointing to an acceleration in the German economy. But while expectations picked up, the ‘current situation’ component fell again. … German ZEW Survey …
As the euro-zone periphery struggles to pay off its external debt, core countries like the Netherlands are still running record current account surpluses. But the Netherlands seems unlikely to reduce its large surplus any time soon, underlining how …
17th June 2013
The commencement last week of the German Constitutional Court hearing into the legality of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) programme has re-stoked the debate over the ECB’s remit and the appropriate breadth of its …
The likely drop in Central & Eastern European (CEE) investment volumes in Q2 will have dashed any hopes that the trend for activity might have turned a corner. Moreover, the recent sell-off in Emerging European currencies and rise in local financial …
13th June 2013
Most peripheral euro-zone economies have made impressive progress in narrowing their current account deficits. But so far this is only a correction in flows; theses economies have made little or no headway in paying down their stock of external debt. As …
12th June 2013
The solid rise in euro-zone industrial production in April suggests that the sector will expand in Q2. But industry is unlikely to spearhead a wider economic recovery. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
Italian GDP figures for Q1 confirmed that the economy remained in a broad-based recession and April’s fall in industrial production pointed to another contraction in Q2. Thankfully, French industrial data for April were more encouraging. … French & …
10th June 2013
While the IMF conceded last week that mistakes were made in Greece’s 2010 bail-out programme, it suggested that earlier debt restructuring was the way forward rather than bigger bail-outs. Meanwhile, the EC and ECB still seem convinced that austerity is …
Increases in German industrial production and exports in April have boosted the chances that the very modest recovery seen in Q1 might gain pace in Q2. … German Industrial Production & Trade …
7th June 2013
Recent Czech data seem to show that activity in the external sector is on the up. That bodes well for Czech industrial property. But the domestic economy is still fragile and demand from consumer-facing occupiers is likely to be lacklustre. Thus, while …
6th June 2013
After leaving interest rates on hold, the ECB left the door open to more policy support, suggesting that more LTROs, negative deposit rates, forward policy guidance and stimulation for Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) markets were all possible. However, the …
Some of the euro-zone business surveys have had a slightly stronger tone over the last couple of months. Nonetheless, at current levels, they remain consistent with a further contraction in activity in the single currency area. Meanwhile, the details of …
5th June 2013
The growing differential between office and retail yields in Brussels does not seem sustainable. But if, as we suspect, it primarily reflects investors’ views that retail has the best defensive characteristics given the uncertain economic outlook for …
The breakdown of Q1 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the PMI provided little obvious support for the ECB’s view that the euro-zone economy is set to embark on a decent recovery later in the year. … Euro-zone GDP (Q1), Final PMI & Retail …
Although euro-zone businesses and consumers are becoming less pessimistic and policymakers are softening their stance on austerity, there is still little sign that the region is on the cusp of an economic recovery. Given this, and the fact that inflation …
3rd June 2013
April’s rise in unemployment and the fact inflation remained well below target in May will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (May 13) & Unemployment (Apr. …
31st May 2013
The Danish economy rebounded in Q1 after its very weak finish to last year, but we doubt that the recovery will last long. … Danish GDP …
The Danish economy rebounded in Q1 after its very weak finish to last year, but we doubt that the recovery will last long. … Danish GDP (Q1 …
After cutting interest rates last month and hinting that more support might be to come, we suspect that the ECB will disappoint markets at its forthcoming policy meeting and press conference. President Draghi is likely to say again that further interest …
30th May 2013
The EC consumer and business survey for May suggests that the euro-zone recession may be easing. But an economic recovery still appears to be some way off. … Euro-zone EC Survey (May …
Swiss GDP data for Q1 confirmed that the economy continued to perform well. But the still high level of the franc does appear to be damaging exports and we suspect that growth will slow significantly in the coming quarters. … Swiss GDP (Q1 …
Yesterday’s cut in official interest rates in Hungary is good news for property markets in Budapest. But we are sceptical that the latest easing cycle is sustainable. And if, as we expect, interest rates go into reverse later this year, Budapest retail …
29th May 2013
Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both economies should outperform most of their peers and maintain …
While positive on the surface, the acceleration in money supply growth conceals several worrying dynamics, not least another fall in lending to firms. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
We think that Q1’s healthy rise in Swedish GDP is not quite as encouraging as it initially seems. But while we expect GDP growth to slow over the remainder of 2013, Sweden will continue to perform better than most of its neighbours. … Swedish GDP …
We think that Q1’s healthy rise in Swedish GDP is not quite as encouraging as it initially seems. But while we expect GDP growth to slow over the remainder of 2013, Sweden will continue to perform better than most of its neighbours. … Swedish GDP (Q1 …
