Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The situation in Greece has improved dramatically over the past year. But while the second bail-out has ensured that the public finances are in a better position than they were, Greece’s public debt still appears unsustainably high. This suggests that the …
12th December 2013
Slovenia’s new bank recapitalisation plans will help the country avoid a bail-out. But its stress test results might have worrying implications for the euro-zone’s own upcoming evaluation of banks. … Slovenian stress tests boost efforts to avoid …
October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production suggests that industry will make another negative contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
The ECB cannot rely on the commencement of asset purchase tapering by the US Federal Reserve to bring the euro down from its potentially damaging levels. … ECB can’t count on Fed tapering to weaken the …
10th December 2013
The latest economic data from Denmark suggest that industrial occupier conditions in Copenhagen are on the mend. And with rental values more than 10% below a linear trend, and yields more than 10% above a long-run average, there is plenty of scope over …
October’s German industrial production data suggested that the country’s main growth engine has not only stalled, but gone into reverse. … German Industrial Production & Trade …
9th December 2013
Q3’s final Greek GDP release revealed that the recession continued to ease. But with deflationary pressures building, Greece’s debt problems are still growing. … Greek GDP (Q3) & CPI Inflation …
The latest economic data show that Finland’s economy is struggling to recover from the recent yearlong recession. With many more years of painful reform ahead, it is likely that GDP growth will continue to fall short of both consensus and official …
Commercial property in the euro-zone's two largest economies may appear expensive. But given the market's size, liquidity and perceived safe-haven status, as well as our view that capital values will be preserved over the next five years, we think that …
For now at least, the ECB appears happy to leave its “powerful artillery” in the arsenal due to its fairly sanguine outlook for inflation. But rather than start to rise gently in line with the ECB’s forecasts, we expect both core and headline inflation to …
Although Iceland’s GDP data is very volatile, Q3’s sharp economic expansion shows that the country is successfully rebuilding its economy. … Iceland GDP …
6th December 2013
Although Iceland’s GDP data is very volatile, Q3’s sharp economic expansion shows that the country is successfully rebuilding its economy. … Iceland GDP (Q3 …
President Draghi emphasised at December’s interest rate press conference that the ECB has a “powerful artillery of instruments available”. And the pressure on it to use these instruments looks set to grow. … Pressure on the ECB to take further action …
5th December 2013
The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection that rates will remain on hold until at least …
Amsterdam’s “Action Programme to Tackle Vacant Offices” appears to be bearing fruit. The total office stock has shrunk over the past year and, despite weak occupier demand, the vacancy rate has fallen. We think this trend will continue for at least the …
4th December 2013
Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the continued strength of the euro exchange rate is …
The breakdown of Q3 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the final PMIs further underlined the weakness of the euro-zone’s recovery. … Euro-zone GDP (Q3 13), Final PMIs (Nov.13) & Retail Sales …
The economic problems facing Italy mean that, in our view, it is too soon to call the floor for capital values in office and industrial markets. By contrast, we do expect the next big move in Spanish property values to be up. However, if we are right that …
2nd December 2013
Last week’s rating changes by S&P, which stripped the Netherlands of its triple A status and moved Spain from negative watch to stable, appeared to re-affirm the recent message from the economic data that the imbalances between the core and peripheral …
The latest news on euro-zone inflation and unemployment will do little to relieve the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the fragile economic recovery and head off a potentially damaging bout of deflation. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & …
29th November 2013
Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. … Swedish & Danish GDP …
Sweden’s much weaker than anticipated rise in GDP in Q3 increases the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its monetary policy stance. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 …
Last month's cut in interest rates has not lifted the pressure on the ECB to provide more support for the fragile economic recovery. Accordingly, President Draghi may make a more concerted effort to talk down the euro at the post-meeting press conference …
28th November 2013
Portugal is unlikely to follow in Ireland’s footsteps and achieve a “clean exit” from its existing rescue package. We think that the most likely scenario is that Portugal seeks a second full-blown bail-out. … A second bail-out still looms for …
For European commercial property markets outside of the currency union, occupier conditions appear to be strengthening gradually, while investment markets have cooled. We expect these trends to continue. Broadly speaking, we think that steady but …
The latest economic and property market data from the single currency region sit comfortably with our forecasts that commercial property in the euro-zone faces a further year of stability in rental values and initial yields. Our view is that euro-zone GDP …
November’s rise in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a comforting sign given the recent falls in other indicators, like the composite PMI, but we still expect the recovery to remain weak. … Euro-zone EC Survey, German Unemp. …
There remains little sign that a pick-up in euro-zone bank lending to help support the fragile economic recovery is taking place. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirm that the economy is continuing to withstand the effects of the strong currency. But growth remains steady rather than spectacular. … Swiss GDP …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirm that the economy is continuing to withstand the effects of the strong currency. But growth remains steady rather than spectacular. … Swiss GDP (Q3 …
While Greece and Ireland remain ahead of their fiscal consolidation targets, Italy appears set to record a larger than planned deficit this year. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
27th November 2013
September’s euro-zone trade data and November’s PMI surveys, both released last week, gave mixed signals on how the euro-zone’s external sector is developing. Whilst the survey data suggested that exports could pick up soon, the hard data painted a less …
25th November 2013
November’s German Ifo index echoed the message of the ZEW survey and PMI that the economy might have regained a bit of momentum in the fourth quarter. But growth looks set to be steady rather than spectacular. … German Ifo Survey …
22nd November 2013
November’s fall in euro-zone consumer confidence adds to signs that the eurozone recovery may have lost some momentum in Q4. … Euro-zone Flash Consumer Confidence …
21st November 2013
Norwegian commercial property outperformed over 2009-12 and has recently accelerated again. Yet with rents now back at or above past peaks and yields at historically low levels, the headroom for “catch-up” capital value growth that was present in early …
November’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the region’s anaemic recovery may be losing more steam. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
All-property capital values in Ireland are 20% higher than a year ago and there is scope for further strong, yield-driven gains over the next quarter or two. To us, it seems inevitable that the pace of the upturn will slow thereafter, but rental gains …
19th November 2013
November’s German ZEW survey provided some evidence that the euro-zone’s biggest economy has continued to expand in the fourth quarter, but at a relatively moderate pace. … German ZEW Survey …
Q3’s rebound in mainland Norwegian GDP growth concealed mounting evidence that the country’s boom is fading. … Norwegian GDP (Q3) …
Q3’s rebound in mainland Norwegian GDP growth concealed mounting evidence that the country’s boom is fading. … Norwegian GDP (Q3 …
The breakdown of France’s Q3 drop in GDP, released last week, underlined the pressure on firms. Without more ambitious structural reforms, weak investment and employment growth mean that French GDP will continue to fall short of official and consensus …
18th November 2013
The latest euro-zone trade data indicate that although the trade surplus continues to widen, weak global demand and the strong euro are holding back exports. … Euro-zone Trade …
Q3's meagre rise in euro-zone GDP clearly was disappointing, but there were some signs that growth within the region is converging. The slowdown was largely down to weaker growth in Germany and France. By contrast, GDP growth in Italy and Spain was …
The latest economic activity data point to strengthening conditions in parts of Europe outside of the single currency region. Hence, commercial property occupier demand seems to be holding up fairly well, particularly in Emerging Europe. And this is …
14th November 2013
Dutch investment has expanded strongly in recent quarters. But, while firms are in much better financial health than households, they won’t drive a decent recovery in the wider economy. … Dutch firms will not power a decent …
Q3’s GDP figures suggest that Greece is not yet benefitting from the modest economic revival in the euro-zone as a whole and we continue to think that the economic forecasts on which its bail-out plans are based remain too optimistic. … Greek recession …
The near-stagnation of the euro-zone economy in the third quarter underlines the fragility of the recovery and the growing dangers of a damaging bout of deflation in the region. … Euro-zone GDP …
September's fall in euro-zone industrial production indicates that the sector will have dragged on GDP growth in Q3 as a whole. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep …
13th November 2013
