Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
France is beginning to tackle its long-standing economic problems. Although a weak labour market and additional fiscal austerity will weigh on the economy this year, growth should pick up in 2015, putting the country’s fiscal dynamics on a more …
31st March 2014
March’s fall in euro-zone consumer price inflation probably partly reflected temporary factors relating to the timing of Easter. But the weakness of inflation suggests that the ECB may need to take further policy action. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
Survey data for March provided an insight into how the euro-zone fared over Q1. While they suggested that the recovery probably gained a little momentum in the first quarter, they remain consistent with disappointingly sluggish growth and growing …
A broad-based economic recovery combined with a modest development pipeline points to rents in the major German office markets making steady gains over the next few years. Yet the recent pick-up in financial services activity, combined with some potential …
28th March 2014
The rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in March provides another indication that the euro-zone economic recovery has built up a little momentum in the early months of the year. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
Developments over the last month have not clearly met either of the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action. Nonetheless, the ongoing danger of deflation and dovish signals from several Governing Council members – not least Bundesbank …
27th March 2014
February’s weak euro-zone monetary data will add to pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy further in the coming months. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
Although the Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today, the Bank may yet need to push back its first projected interest rate hike from mid-2015 to 2016. … Norwegian interest rates may be on hold until …
Balance of payments data suggest that capital inflows from abroad may have helped to push up the value of the euro. But if the current account surplus shrinks and the appetite for euro-zone financial assets wanes, the euro may come under renewed pressure …
26th March 2014
March’s German Ifo survey echoed the message from other recent surveys that sentiment towards the economy might be starting to soften a little bit. But the current conditions index still points to solid growth. … German Ifo Survey …
25th March 2014
The fall in the Danish krone to its weakest level against the euro since early 2006 has increased speculation that Denmark’s central bank will have to respond to maintain the krone’s peg. We agree that action is necessary but suspect that the Nationalbank …
24th March 2014
The euro has been on an upward trend against the US dollar for nearly two years, largely reflecting improving sentiment towards the euro-zone economy and reduced fears of break-up. But the relative valuation of euro-zone assets has become less appealing …
Recent data show that the euro-zone labour market is finally starting to strengthen and that labour costs are falling in the periphery relative to the core. But, while some economies are adjusting better than others, this grinding rebalancing will …
The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange of sanctions and a diplomatic settlement that sees the …
21st March 2014
Although Belgium’s economy has returned to growth, the Government has made little progress in tackling the country’s underlying labour market problems. As a result, we doubt that the Belgian recovery will accelerate significantly from here. … Belgian …
20th March 2014
The combination of a sluggish economic recovery, very low inflation and a still strong currency will keep the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in very accommodative mode for the foreseeable future. … SNB's battle with deflation goes …
The combination of a sluggish economic recovery, very low inflation and a still strong currency will keep the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in very accommodative mode for the foreseeable future. … SNB’s battle with deflation goes …
While the continuing independence vote in Italy’s Veneto region may prove of little direct importance, the poll highlights the breadth of challenges facing Mr Renzi’s new Government and the difficulty of transferring wealth within countries, let alone …
19th March 2014
The Norwegian krone is not a key driver of industrial rental values in Oslo. That said, at the margin, the currency’s fall is another reason to expect the recovery in industrial rental values over the past year to be extended. … What effect will the …
In light of the recent drop in inflation, Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged today and suggested that rate hikes were less probable than they had been in February. However, with inflation set to pick up again, we still think the …
Although timely activity indicators suggest that the Spanish economy may have built a bit of momentum at the start of 2014, we suspect that the recovery will remain disappointingly weak. … Is Spain's recovery building …
March’s ZEW survey showed that recent concerns over the international environment have had a negative effect on sentiment amongst German investors. But current conditions in the economy remain buoyant. … German ZEW Survey (Mar.) & Euro-zone Trade …
18th March 2014
Although January’s euro-zone industrial figures made disappointing reading, the recent weakness of the sector partly reflects a plunge in energy production. Encouragingly, orders data paint a more upbeat picture suggesting that better times may be ahead. …
17th March 2014
The measures announced by the Italian PM yesterday represent a valuable short-term stimulus to the economy. But they also raise the cost of failing to implement more difficult structural reforms later. … Renzi's recent reforms are the easy …
13th March 2014
January’s euro-zone industrial production figures got the year off to a disappointingly soft start and underline the fragility of the recovery in both industry and the broader economy. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
12th March 2014
February’s consumer prices figures for the Nordic countries revealed a continued disparity between subdued inflation rates in Sweden and Denmark on the one hand and much stronger price pressures in Norway. We expect that disparity to persist over the …
11th March 2014
Greece and the Troika may resolve the issues that have delayed the latest loan disbursement soon, but this will not resolve the fact that the country’s bail-out rests on unrealistic forecasts. … Greek bail-out has bigger problems than current …
The latest Portuguese GDP figures will bolster hopes that the Government can follow in Ireland’s footsteps and make a clean break from its bail-out later this year. … Portuguese GDP …
Italy exited its long recession in Q4. But the recovery will struggle to gather enough steam this year to erode the country’s crushing public debt load. … Italian GDP …
The risks of deflation in the euro-zone, particularly in light of the ECB’s continued inaction last Thursday, should keep the yields on ten-year core euro-zone government bonds well below those on US Treasuries for at least the next couple of years. … …
The economic recovery, combined with improving business confidence, should help to boost occupier demand in Brussels this year. But with leasing incentives still generous and the economic recovery likely to be slow, a rapid recovery in office rental …
10th March 2014
While last week’s decision by the ECB to leave policy on hold may be a signal that the euro-zone’s long monetary policy loosening cycle is finally over, the combination of the greater emphasis on the slack in the economy and the strong euro could yet …
Germany’s January industrial production numbers provide some hope that the economy’s main growth engine is starting to pick up some revs. … German Industrial Production …
7th March 2014
The continued growth of Iceland’s economy in Q4 suggests that the country is on the road to recovery. … Iceland GDP (Q4) …
The continued growth of Iceland’s economy in Q4 suggests that the country is on the road to recovery. … Iceland GDP (Q4 13) …
The ECB opted to keep its policy powder dry today, preferring instead to strengthen its verbal forward guidance by emphasising the large amount of slack in the economy. But we still think it may need to support its words with actions to sustain the …
6th March 2014
Although the strength of Slovenia’s Q4 GDP outturn owed a lot to temporary factors, the expansion underlined that the economy is on the road to recovery and will probably avoid a euro-zone bail-out. … Light at the end of the tunnel for …
While euro-zone activity indicators suggest that the region’s recovery has picked up speed a bit in the early months of 2014, growth remains worryingly unbalanced. For now, exporters appear to be coping with the strength of the euro exchange rate – export …
5th March 2014
Italian economic prospects have improved over recent months, but we still think that GDP growth there will remain weaker than in the euro-zone as a whole, both in the short and medium term. … Is Italy's recovery gaining …
We have not made material changes to the majority of our economic forecasts since our previous Analyst. Nevertheless, we have edged up our forecasts for capital value growth in a number of non-euro-zone property markets. On the whole, the key driver of …
Euro-zone property markets ended the year on strong note, with many seeing a material rise in investment market activity. Small falls in yields were also more common than not. Our economic forecasts are little changed from our previous Analyst. As such, …
The latest batch of data on the euro-zone provided rather mixed signals for the European Central Bank ahead of its Governing Council meeting on Thursday. But we still think more policy action is needed and, on balance, likely. … Euro-zone GDP (Q4), …
The chances of Portugal following in Ireland’s footsteps and making a “clean break” from its bailout have recently grown. Nonetheless, we think that it may still need further loans and some form of debt restructuring before it is in a position to stand on …
4th March 2014
While the Ukraine crisis won’t have major effects on the European economy, it is another warning to the policymakers not to rely on a very positive global environment to sustain the region’s recovery. … Does the Ukraine crisis threaten the European …
Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still presents a compelling case for further ECB policy action …
3rd March 2014
February’s euro-zone consumer prices figures don’t change the picture of very weak price pressures in the currency union and hence don’t rule out further policy action from the ECB next week. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment …
28th February 2014
The surge in Swedish GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy remains one of the region’s strongest performers. But while it has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecast we still think that growth will be weaker than the consensus view this year. … Swedish …
