Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) added to the evidence that improving conditions in the euro-zone’s financial sector are finally feeding into the real economy. But it will be a while before credit conditions are no longer a weight on the …
4th August 2014
Economic indicators paint a mixed picture of the euro-zone recovery. On the one hand, the situation in the peripheral economies is improving. But at the same time, growth in the core economies appears to be faltering. As a result, there was relatively …
1st August 2014
Although progress remains slow in many countries, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided moreevidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
With the measures announced in June seeming tohave some positive effects on financial marketconditions, the ECB is unlikely to announceadditional policy support this month. But furthersigns of economic weakness and the persistentlylow rate of inflation …
31st July 2014
July’s flash euro-zone consumer prices data underlined the continued weaknessof price pressures in the currency union and supported our view that the ECB hasmore work to do to tackle the risk of deflation. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment …
Q2’s GDP figures showed a sharp slowdown in the pace of Belgian growth andsuggested that the recovery peaked at the start of this year. … Belgian GDP (Q2, …
30th July 2014
Finland’s close economic ties with neighbouring Russia mean that the EU’s stiffer sanctions on Russia announced yesterday are likely to deal another blow to the Finnish economy. Even if the direct impact is set to be small, a weaker Russian economy bodes …
The euro finally appears to be succumbing to the downward pressure implied by the divergentprospects for monetary policy in the US and euro-zone. But bigger declines are likely to be needed tokick-start the region’s recovery and fully eliminate the danger …
July’s tiny rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the eurozonerecovery is unlikely to strengthen much in Q3. … Euro-zone EC Survey & ECB Bank Lending Survey …
The provisional estimate of Swedish Q2 GDP revealed a disappointingly weak pace of growth. But domestic demand remains reassuringly strong, suggesting that the economic recovery will remain on track. … Swedish GDP (Q2, …
The provisional estimate of Swedish Q2 GDP revealed a disappointingly weak pace of growth. But domestic demand remains reassuringly strong, suggesting that the economic recovery will remain on track. … Swedish GDP (Q2 14, …
The likelihood that the EU will impose stiffer sanctions on Russia has raised concerns about the effecton German exports and the wider economy. But while certain companies rely strongly on trade withRussia, the economy as a whole does not and the German …
28th July 2014
We envisage only a modest improvement in office occupier demand in the Netherlands over the next year or two as economic growth and job creation disappoint. Yet office rents are likely to drift higher as occupier demand focuses on the limited supply of …
Continued very low inflation is likely to have anegative impact on debt ratios in both Japan andthe euro-zone during the coming years. Insouthern euro-zone countries real interest rateswill probably remain high due to the differencebetween inflation rates …
Despite a slight fall in July, euro-zone consumer confidence remains at a high level. But this hasyet to be reflected in a significant rise in spending growth. This might be because consumers’optimism relates more to the wider economic outlook than to …
On the face of it, the UK’s impressive economic recovery offers significant hope to the euro-zone. Butwe think that still high levels of debt and a relatively timid monetary policy response will prevent theregion following in the UK’s footsteps for the …
25th July 2014
Although June’s euro-zone monetary data showed some further signs of improvement, lending is still falling and the data point to a significant risk of deflation in the region. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
July’s drop in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) is another worryingsign that the recovery may have passed its peak. … German Ifo Survey (Jul.) & Consumer Confidence …
The sharp fall in wages and recent flurry of structural reforms in Greece has not yet fed intocompetitiveness gains. Greece is still not able to run the sustained external surpluses that it needs. … How competitive is Greece …
24th July 2014
Although purchasing managers surveys for July, released earlier today, suggest that the economicrecovery in the euro-zone as a whole is regaining momentum, they also still show a large gap betweenthe performances of Germany and France. This could spell …
News that the three major Flemish parties have formed a regional government raises hopes that Belgium’s federal political deadlock will be resolved soon. But the proposed national coalition looks set to avoid the contentious reforms needed to reverse …
Despite the rise in the PMIs in both China and the euro-zone in July, the near-termoutlooks for industrial commodity and oil prices remain weak. Indeed, there arelingering concerns that the euro-zone’s recovery may already be losing steam, and thedownturn …
The jump in the flash composite PMI in July suggested that euro-zone activity picked up at the start of Q3 but it is unlikely to alleviate concerns that the recovery in the euro-zone is already running out of steam. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
The Banco De Espana’s estimate that Spanish GDP rose by 0.5% in Q2 suggests thatSpain may have been one of the strongest euro-zone economies last quarter. But wedoubt that Spain’s recovery can strengthen much further. … Spanish GDP (Q2 …
23rd July 2014
Belgium’s weak economic fundamentals mean it sits near the bottom of the rankings in terms of core euro-zone commercial property investment destinations. While Italy suffers from an even weaker economic backdrop, the fact that the property market did not …
22nd July 2014
German house price inflation is modest by international standards, housing remains affordable andmortgage debt is low. Accordingly, fears of overheating seem overdone and should not ultimatelyprevent the ECB from providing extra monetary policy support to …
21st July 2014
ECB President Mario Draghi’s statement last week that “QE falls squarely in our mandate” was perhaps the strongest signal yet that the ECB is considering bolder policy support. But Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann voiced his discomfort with even the …
Construction is set to remain one of the worst performing parts of the French economy. The sector’sproblems are symptomatic of the challenges facing the broader economy. … Subsidence in the French construction …
18th July 2014
The recent underperformance of the French economy compared to Germany reflects fundamentalfactors that will drive an even greater wedge between the two economies over time. Thisdivergence will complicate both monetary and fiscal policy-making in the …
17th July 2014
The latest data showing that Dublin’s employment and housing market recovery are running ahead of the rest of Ireland bode well for retail occupier demand in the Irish capital. And, with tight supply conditions, and yields still high relative to other …
May’s euro-zone trade data provided some tentative signs that exports may bebeginning to pick up. But the external sector remains too weak to offset fears that thedomestic recovery is faltering at an early stage. … Euro-zone Trade …
16th July 2014
Slovenia’s recent election looks set to produce a government that will dilute the country’s muchneededprivatisation programme. Nonetheless, on balance, the new administration will probably helpconsolidate Slovenia’s fragile economic recovery. … New …
15th July 2014
July’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment added to signs of a slowdown in theeuro-zone’s largest and strongest economy. … German ZEW Survey …
Recent data confirm that a slowdown in euro-zone export orders has led to slowing of industrial production growth in the CEE region. Nevertheless, with rental values yet to rebound from post-crisis lows, and given scope for further yield compression, the …
14th July 2014
The sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in May suggests that the recovery in the sector is flagging before it has even really begun, boding ill for the region’s overall economic recovery. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
Data published last week revealed that production fell in all four of the euro-zone’s largest economies in May. But the downturn in Germany has been most disappointing given hopes that this industrial powerhouse might drive an economic revival in the …
The recent rise in Portuguese government bond yields related to fears for its banking sector confirms that policymakers have done little to weaken the “doom loop” between banks and sovereigns in the euro-zone’s periphery and highlights the fragility of …
10th July 2014
Over the past six years, office-based employment growth in Munich has outperformed the other major German cities. In contrast, job creation in Frankfurt has been below par. This helps to explain the relative underperformance of office rental value growth …
The sharp falls in Italian and French industrial production in May were another sign that the sector’s recovery is already flagging before it has even really begun. … French & Italian Industrial Production …
The ECB’s prospective ABS purchases might ultimately help to strengthen the euro-zone financial system. But they will not stave off the immediate disinflationary pressures facing the region. … ABS purchases will not take QE off the …
9th July 2014
France’s large shopping centre pipeline is consistent with the below average level of existing stock. Although it is unlikely to result in a supply overhang, given the weak retail demand fundamentals it is another reason to expect French retail rents to …
The Swedish Riksbank’s interest rate cut last week will put pressure on the Norges Bank to follow suit. We expect the Bank to cut its policy rate by the end of the year. And as spending in the energy and household sectors struggles to pick up, the Bank …
8th July 2014
While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the euro-zone have softened again in the last few months, …
Germany’s May industrial production figures arguably brought the strongest warning yet that the euro-zone’s fledgling economic recovery is in danger of grinding to a halt. … German & Spanish Industrial Production …
7th July 2014
Recent policy developments support our expectation that the euro will fall against the US dollar. We forecast a rate of $1.30 at end-2014 and $1.25 at end-2015. But that fall could be too little too late to revive the flagging recovery and head off …
Subdued take-up combined with speculative development mean that the short-term risks for rental values in Geneva and particularly Zurich lie to the downside. Nevertheless, with GDP set to grow strongly and most sectors looking to hire more workers, rental …
3rd July 2014
Additional easing by the ECB in June has failed to generate further downward pressure on the euro. Indeed, the euro has strengthened since the Governing Council met last month. However, while the ECB decided to keep policy on hold at its latest meeting on …
The ECB is relying strongly on measures announced last month to counter the threat of deflation, but we doubt that they will be effective. A bolder programme of asset purchases is still likely to be required and the Bank’s failure to acknowledge this …
