Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Sweden’s central bank today left its main policy rate on hold at 0.25% and reiterated that interestrates would not start to rise until late 2015 as it continues its fight to stave off deflation. But wethink that the date of the first rate hike will still …
4th September 2014
August’s fall in euro-zone HICP inflation from 0.4% to 0.3% left it at its lowest rate sinceOctober 2009, when it was negative, and well beneath the ECB’s target of “below, but closeto, 2%”. What’s more, the economy stagnated in Q2 and survey data suggest …
3rd September 2014
Over the first half of the year, capital values in the Emerging European commercial property markets were little changed, while values in non-euro-zone Western markets edged a little higher. Over the next 18 months or so, we expect the outperformance of …
The euro-zone’s economic problems show few signs of easing and a rapid recovery in economic growth and job creation over the next few quarters seems unlikely. The good news is that the dip in bond yields over the first half of the year has lent additional …
July’s fall in euro-zone retail sales provides further signs of a weakening inconsumer spending and, with the final estimates of August’s PMIs revised down,there is more evidence that the region’s recovery may have passed its peak. … Euro-zone Retail …
The global manufacturing PMI, published by Markit today, suggests that world GDP growth may pickup a bit further in the third quarter after rebounding in the second. But the imbalance between thefast-growing US economy and the euro-zone, where growth has …
2nd September 2014
Switzerland’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in Q2, suggesting that it is feeling theeffects of weakness in the euro-zone, its major trading partner. … Swiss GDP …
Fiscal positions strengthened across most of the peripheral economies in July, although we havegrowing concerns about Portugal’s ability to meet its target for this year. (Chart 1). … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
Switzerland’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in Q2, suggesting that it is feeling the effects of weakness in the euro-zone, its major trading partner. … Swiss GDP (Q2 …
August’s flash euro-zone CPI inflation data underlined the absence of price pressures in the currency union and should encourage the ECB to offer stronger hints of additional policy support to come after its meeting next week. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
29th August 2014
Events last week gave support to our long-held view that the ECB will have to take the plunge and launch a full-blown quantitative easing programme in the coming months. Survey data added to mounting evidence that the recovery has already peaked. And with …
The Danish economy unexpectedly contracted in Q2 as a result of a sharp fall inexports, suggesting that Denmark is feeling the effects of the slowdown in itsbiggest trading partner, the euro-zone. … Danish GDP …
The Danish economy unexpectedly contracted in Q2 as a result of a sharp fall in exports, suggesting that Denmark is feeling the effects of the slowdown in its biggest trading partner, the euro-zone. … Danish GDP (Q2 …
Although July’s euro-zone monetary data showed some further signs of improvement, the bigger picture is that lending is still contracting and the data suggest there is still a significant risk of deflation in the region. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators …
28th August 2014
The ECB finally seems to be facing facts, withPresident Mario Draghi conceding at Jackson Holethat the economy is too weak and that inflationexpectations have dropped. We do not expect anyaction this month as the Bank clings to the hopethat measures …
August’s larger than expected fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI)added to worrying evidence that the euro-zone recovery is struggling to gaintraction. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
The recent sharp drop in Portuguese property yields has not been excessive. But with yields no longer at a level that is obviously too high and the economic outlook still fragile, yield impact, capital value growth and total returns are all poised for a …
The weakness of the euro-zone economy and the persistent threat of deflation should keep German government bond (Bund) yields relatively low. However, any scaling back of fiscal austerity and the adoption of quantitative easing (QE) by the ECB are now …
26th August 2014
The latest anti-austerity backlash from within the French Government, together with supportive comments from the ECB, offer hope that the euro-zone’s fiscal straightjacket could be loosened in future. But political turmoil in France bodes ill for the …
President Draghi’s comments at Jackson Hole supported our long-held view that the ECB will take theplunge into full-blown quantitative easing, probably around the turn of the year. … ECB finally facing …
The latest falls in business confidence and the weakness of euro-zone exports seem to relate partly to the effects of the Ukraine crisis and could therefore be fairly short-lived. But there is a risk that these effects persist or even worsen if the crisis …
22nd August 2014
Preliminary business surveys for August, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growthcontinues to be sluggish in Japan and the euro-zone and that China’s economy is slowing. In contrast,the US economy is going from strength to strength. … …
21st August 2014
Recent, disappointing euro-zone economic data reaffirm our view that a meaningful, demand-driven commercial property rental upturn is not yet on the horizon. Given a looming floor for yields, this means that the near-term outlook for capital values across …
Q2’s sharp rise in Norwegian GDP made imminent policy action by the Norges Bank look very unlikely. But we still expect the Bank to cut interest rates next year as the krone strengthens further and the recovery slows. … Norwegian GDP …
Q2’s sharp rise in Norwegian GDP made imminent policy action by the Norges Bank look very unlikely. But we still expect the Bank to cut interest rates next year as the krone strengthens further and the recovery slows. … Norwegian GDP (Q2 …
Iceland’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 6% at its meeting today but hintedstrongly that rates will need to rise soon. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will raise thepolicy rate before the end of the year as the slack in the …
20th August 2014
Iceland’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 6% at its meeting today but hinted strongly that rates will need to rise soon. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will raise the policy rate before the end of the year as the slack in …
Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we hadpreviously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%,by the end of the year with a further cut following early …
19th August 2014
To date, the stronger recovery in office-based employment in Barcelona has yet to be reflected in a rise in rental values. But over the next couple of years, we suspect that rents in Barcelona will rise a touch more rapidly than in Madrid. … Will office …
Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we had previously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%, by the end of the year with a further cut following early …
The key remaining barrier to bolder ECB policy support seems to be the Governing Council’s viewthat long-term inflation expectations are “well-anchored”. We have doubts over the usefulness ofsuch measures and expect the Bank to implement quantitative …
18th August 2014
June’s euro-zone trade data provided yet further evidence that the external sectorremains too weak to make up for the region’s feeble domestic recovery. … Euro-zone Trade …
The euro-zone’s economic recovery came to a complete halt in the second quarter at what shouldhave been a very early stage. There were some temporary factors at play which suggest thatgrowth should resume in Q3 and beyond. But the recovery will be very …
The decline in German GDP in Q2 is not as alarming as it might appear given that it was causedpartly by temporary factors. But while the economy should return to growth in Q3 and beyond, itseems clear that the recovery has already passed its peak and …
14th August 2014
The stagnation of the euro-zone economy in the second quarter further underlinedthe need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to take bolder policy action to addressthe continued weakness of the economy and the associated risks of deflation. … Euro-zone …
The recent fall in office take-up across the main CEE markets is a concern given the region’s large office development pipelines. But at the same time, the recent strength of office-based employment growth should drive occupier demand higher over the …
June’s euro-zone industrial production data confirmed that industry’s recovery has faltered and suggested that the sector may have dragged on GDP growth in Q2. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
13th August 2014
Greece’s Q2 GDP release suggests that the economy is slowly emerging from the abyss. But growth remains too weak for the country to reduce its huge public debt without significantly more outside help. … Greek GDP …
August’s drop in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator was another worrying signfor the German economy, particularly as perceptions of current conditions are nowweakening along with expectations. … German ZEW Survey …
12th August 2014
Solid Norwegian retail sales growth over the past few years seems to explain the rise in Oslo retail rental values. Granted, other factors such as changing retail trends are also at play. Nevertheless, the recent slowdown in retail sales growth means that …
While last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting offered few signs of imminent further policymeasures, one encouraging development was President Draghi’s willingness to talk down theeuro. But we think his words will need to be followed by actions before …
11th August 2014
Although developed market equities have performed poorly over the pastmonth, in general we do not expect them to continue to struggle. Europeanequities were the worst performers, dragged down by the escalation of thesituation in Ukraine and some …
8th August 2014
Despite an improvement in June, French industrial data suggest that industry probablydragged on overall euro-zone growth in Q2. Meanwhile, Germany’s latest trade dataindicate that the external sector there remains subdued. … French Industrial Production & …
The ECB gave no strong hints of imminent policy action this month as it waited to judge the effects ofpreviously announced measures and claimed that long-term inflation expectations were wellanchored.But President Draghi did sound rather more downbeat …
7th August 2014
Parisian office take-up grew by 55%y/y in the second quarter, but fell in three of the top four German cities, including a 45%y/y fall in Frankfurt. Nevertheless, the underlying weakness of the French economy means that Parisian take-up could yet drop …
June’s small rise in German industrial production was a huge disappointment, andsuggests that activity in what has been the euro-zone’s strongest economy stagnatedin Q2. This will add to pressure on the ECB to offer more policy support. … German & Spanish …
Economic indicators in the non-euro-zone Western European economies were generally positive in Q2, but there are signs that growth slowed across the board in Emerging Europe. That wasn’t enough to put off investors however, with CEE Q2 investment volumes …
6th August 2014
According to recent hard data, next week’s Q2 GDP release may show that the euro-zone’srecovery gained no momentum after Q1’s disappointing 0.2% quarterly rise in GDP. In fact,the performance of industry and exports may even have weakened. The improvement …
The second consecutive fall in GDP underlines that Italy’s crisis is not over yet. Withpublic debt still rising, market pressures on the country may yet start to build. … Italian GDP (Q2, …
June’s rise in euro-zone retail sales points to a further modest increase inconsumer spending in the second quarter. But more timely indicators, such astoday’s final PMI figures, suggest that the broader recovery has failed to gatherpace since then. … …
5th August 2014
