Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The persistent weakness of euro-zone exports seems to have reflected the high level of the euro, tradelinks with Emerging Europe and cost and regulatory pressures on the region’s exporters. While theeuro’s depreciation should boost export growth somewhat …
3rd October 2014
President Mario Draghi hinted strongly that a deterioration in the inflation outlook in the coming months would result in the ECB taking bolder, unconventional policy action, leaving the door wide open for full-blown QE before the end of the year. … …
2nd October 2014
Smaller budget deficits were seen in most of the peripheral economies in August, but France’s fiscal position continued to deteriorate. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
The latest survey indicators seem to have confirmed that the euro-zone’s feeble recovery has already passed its peak. September’s fall in the composite PMI, for example, left it consistent with a modest quarterly expansion in euro-zone GDP of around 0.2% …
1st October 2014
September’s fall in euro-zone inflation to a whisker above zero and August’s weak labour market data will add to the pressure on the ECB to signal further policy support at its meeting this Thursday. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment …
30th September 2014
September’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to the evidence that the eurozoneeconomy struggled to pick up in Q3, after stagnating in Q2. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
29th September 2014
The continued depreciation of the euro exchange rate points to much-needed increases in export growth and imported inflation in the coming months. But this does not eliminate the risk of deflation and the ECB will remain under pressure to implement …
26th September 2014
The ECB now seems to be taking deflation risks more seriously, implementing surprise interest rate cuts in September and leaving the door wide open to quantitative easing. With the economy apparently weakening further since then and the limited uptake at …
25th September 2014
The relationship between retail sales growth and prime high street rental growth in Italy has broken down in recent years as occupier demand has been driven mainly by luxury retailers. Accordingly, we do not believe that the weak consumer outlook for …
Finland’s dismal post-crisis economic performance is at odds with the ongoing recoveries of its Nordic neighbours. Although these countries share many characteristics, Finland’s economic decline has been caused by a combination of drivers that is specific …
Although August’s euro-zone monetary data showed further signs of improvement, lending is still contracting and, given the low uptake at the ECB’s first TLTRO last week, there is little sign that this will improve dramatically. … Euro-zone Monetary …
A composite of the flash manufacturing PMIs released so far suggests that the pace of global growthaccelerated in the third quarter, despite more signs of weakness in the euro-zone and Japan. … Global growth set to strengthen in …
24th September 2014
Given an environment of relatively muted economic growth in the Netherlands and its main trading partners, we think that office property returns have more potential to deliver a positive surprise than industrial or retail, thanks in part to the greater …
September’s Ifo survey brought further worrying signs that the recovery in the German economy is grinding to a halt and underlined the need for both monetary and fiscal policy to provide further support. … German Ifo Survey …
The National Bank of Hungary’s post-meeting press release reinforced the message that the MPC sees little pressure to raise interest rates. Indeed, with inflation likely to remain low, and economic growth set to weaken over the coming quarters, we don’t …
23rd September 2014
The increase in the flash PMI for China has helped to assuage fears about a hard landing. However, the index is still low by historical standards and the fall in the euro-zone’s flash PMI highlights the risk to commodity demand from Europe. … …
The small fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in September added to worrying signs that the region’s economy barely expanded in Q3 after Q2’s stagnation. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
The low uptake at the first of the ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) last week supported our view that the policy is unlikely to be successful at boosting bank lending. It also suggested that the ECB will struggle to expand its …
19th September 2014
Iceland’s economy contracted in Q2 for the third consecutive quarter, raising questions over the sustainability of the economic recovery. But there are still reasons to believe that its economy will continue to improve steadily. … Iceland GDP …
Iceland’s economy contracted in Q2 for the third consecutive quarter, raising questions over the sustainability of the economic recovery. But there are still reasons to believe that its economy will continue to improve steadily. … Iceland GDP (Q2 …
ECB President Mario Draghi’s call at Jackson Hole for fiscal policy to play a greater role alongside monetary policy in boosting aggregate demand has prompted some to label the change of tone “Draghi-nomics” – akin to “Abenomics” in Japan. However, while …
18th September 2014
Ireland’s rapid growth in Q2 underlined its status as the euro-zone periphery’s poster boy but could prompt some concerns that it has entered another unsustainable boom. … Ireland GDP …
With the first of the ECB’s Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations taking place this Thursday,this Update addresses some of the key questions regarding their aims and likely effects. While thepolicy may help some struggling banks, it is unlikely to …
17th September 2014
The short-term blip in German growth will not significantly impact office markets and, although development pipelines are growing, we expect to see continued office rental value growth in the next few years as absorption of new space remains strong. … Do …
16th September 2014
The agreement amongst European finance ministers over the weekend that Ireland can start early repayment of its IMF loan highlighted again the rapid improvement of market confidence in the peripheral economies that has taken place this year. … Early loan …
September’s small fall in the German ZEW investor expectations index and thesharper decline in the current conditions index added to evidence that the recovery inthe euro-zone’s largest and strongest economy is petering out. … German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & …
Sweden’s general election yesterday resulted in defeat for the centre-right coalition Alliance Government after two terms in power but produced no overall majority for the centre-left opposition parties. While this will fuel political uncertainty in the …
15th September 2014
The French Government looks set to win a vote of confidence tomorrow, allowing it to pursue long-overdue business friendly reforms. But it could take many years for the reforms to bear fruit and ongoing political turmoil will weigh heavily on consumer and …
Despite weak economic and employment growth, prime office rents in Helsinki should rise a little further in the next couple of years. Further ahead, however, centrally-located office markets may then underperform emerging out-of-town locations. … What …
July’s euro-zone trade data showed that the region’s exporters continued to struggle,suggesting that the uncertain international environment was taking its toll andoffsetting the benefits of a weaker euro at that point. … Euro-zone Trade …
While signs of pragmatism have recently emerged in the ongoing fiscal debate in the euro-zone, we think there is currently little room for fiscal policy to play much of a role in tackling low growth and inflation. Instead, monetary policy needs to remain …
12th September 2014
Six years after the onset of the global financial crisis, there is still a threat of deflation. The biggestworry is in the euro-zone, where inflation expectations have slipped and the ECB’s actions stillappear too timid. In addition, the recent pick-up in …
There is much that the Scots could learn from their Celtic neighbours. Irish independence is a story ofeventual, not immediate success. It took nearly 80 years for Irish per capita income to catch up withthe UK’s. It grew rapidly during the “Celtic Tiger” …
July’s rebound in euro-zone industrial production provided hope that industry mayfare slightly better in Q3 than it did in Q2. But with survey data pointing to acontinued slowdown, the sector’s recovery is likely to be very sluggish at best. … Euro-zone …
Facing some of the highest industrial build costs in Europe, developers are unlikely to find it profitable to speculatively construct industrial space in Sweden in the next few years. Therefore, with vacancy already tight and demand set to improve, we …
11th September 2014
Today’s historically low Belgian retail yields cannot be explained by strong rental growth prospects. Rather, in a market with a high proportion of international retailers, investors’ preference for low risk investments have been key. But this is likely …
10th September 2014
The Cypriot parliament passed a controversial bill on 6th September, reducing the time it takes toforeclose non-performing business loans and mortgages. While the bill is likely to help banks ahead ofthe ECB’s forthcoming stress tests, it could have a …
The ECB’s unexpected announcement last week that it would lower interest rates again forced the Danish central bank to reinstate a negative deposit rate to protect the Danish krone’s peg to the euro. But with the ECB likely to take the plunge into …
Measures of inflation expectations are unanimous in pointing to a growing risk of deflation in the eurozone.Meanwhile, the rise in inflation expectations in Japan suggests that the BoJ’s actions have hadsome success, but also that policymakers there will …
9th September 2014
More favourable terms and conditions for loans to Italian firms point to a possible pick-up ininvestment and industrial production in the coming quarters. However, there is little evidence we willsee a pick-up in consumption. … Looser credit standards may …
8th September 2014
While last week’s cuts in interest rates and details of asset purchase programmes were a welcomesurprise, we still believe that the ECB will eventually have to stop tiptoeing around and take theplunge into a full programme of quantitative easing. … ECB …
5th September 2014
Today’s announcement that both sides have agreed on a ceasefire should help to ease tensions inUkraine and move the government and rebels towards a sustainable peace deal. Admittedly, we havealready seen a number of ceasefires break-down quickly after …
The US and euro-zone economies have diverged further in the past few months, as growth in the single currency area has stalled but the US recovery has stepped up a gear. Moreover, the gap between the inflation rates in the two economies has also widened. …
The breakdown of euro-zone Q2 GDP was a bit more encouraging than it might have been, but hardly presented a solid platform for stronger growth ahead. … Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2) & German IP …
The additional policy measures announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) today are unlikely totransform the euro-zone’s economic outlook on their own and therefore look like another step alongthe path to the inevitable adoption of full-blown …
4th September 2014
Sweden’s central bank today left its main policy rate on hold at 0.25% and reiterated that interest rates would not start to rise until late 2015 as it continues its fight to stave off deflation. But we think that the date of the first rate hike will …
Sweden’s central bank today left its main policy rate on hold at 0.25% and reiterated that interestrates would not start to rise until late 2015 as it continues its fight to stave off deflation. But wethink that the date of the first rate hike will still …
