Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to drop to a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook and we suspect that the Bank will raise interest rates …
7th September 2016
Today’s final estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed that the slowdown in growth from the first quarter was largely due to household spending. Over the rest of the year, we think that consumer spending will remain subdued, while export growth will slow. … Euro-zone …
6th September 2016
Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in August, deflationary risks remain acute. … Swiss GDP …
As Mariano Rajoy would benefit most from another election, his opponents may yet let him form a government. But with the public finances deteriorating and the deadline for the 2017 budget to be submitted to the European Commission looming, the risk of …
5th September 2016
Euro-zone government finances at the start of the third quarter of 2016 were much more of a mixed bag than the reasonably impressive figures from the first half of the year. Worryingly, the data suggest that Portugal and Spain, having recently avoided …
Euro-zone retail sales started Q3 strongly but growth is set to slow in the coming months. Indeed, the downward revision to August’s euro-zone Composite PMI hints at the challenges facing the economy during the remainder of the year. … Euro-zone Retail …
Euro-zone equity prices have risen so far in Q3, painting a more optimistic picture of the economy’s performance than the consumer and business surveys. However, there are two reasons why we think that the surveys, which suggest that growth might have …
2nd September 2016
Despite a slowdown in Spain’s economic recovery, growth is still expected to be healthy, providing a positive backdrop for industrial rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid. And with industrial pricing appearing far from stretched, investor interest is …
Recent news on the economy has reduced the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide further policy stimulus at its forthcoming policy meeting on 8th September. But the weakness of price pressures in the region could still prompt the …
1st September 2016
In the first half of 2016, prime office rental values in Paris have already matched the full year increase predicted by the IPF consensus forecasts. With take-up strong and a limited supply of quality space in central areas, we think that rental growth is …
The unchanged headline inflation rate in August highlights the fact that price pressures in the euro-zone remain weak and boosts the case for more monetary easing from the ECB. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment …
31st August 2016
The hit to Norway’s GDP growth from lower oil prices appears to be fading. Nevertheless, with growth still fairly slow and inflation set to fall sharply, we still expect the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy this year. … Norwegian GDP …
In Q2 Danish GDP growth was worryingly dependent on external demand and a drop in imports, while survey indicators suggest that the economy will struggle to grow over the coming months. … Danish GDP (Q2 …
The hit to Norway’s GDP growth from lower oil prices appears to be fading. Nevertheless, with growth still fairly slow and inflation set to fall sharply, we still expect the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy this year. … Norwegian GDP (Q2 …
August’s slowdown in German inflation was weaker than most forecasters had expected last week, but was broadly consistent with the state-level data released this morning. While inflation should pick up in the coming months, we do not think that it is on …
30th August 2016
August’s euro-zone Business and Consumer Survey suggests that growth has slowed and inflation expectations are weak. So the ECB will be under pressure to loosen monetary policy further at its meeting next week. … EC Business & Consumer Survey …
Italy’s forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform is expected to take place in October or November. If the reform is accepted, it could make governments more stable and passing legislation easier. However, if it is rejected, Italy will be in for a …
26th August 2016
Stronger economic growth in Q2 helped to prevent further falls in the majority of prime retail and industrial rents across the central and eastern European region. Rents may, therefore, have found a floor. At the same time, investment activity rose, with …
The euro-zone Composite PMI has held up well since the UK’s Brexit vote, but it is too soon to sound the all clear. After all, the Composite PMI measures current output rather than indicating how conditions might develop. Forward-looking indicators have …
All-property euro-zone rental values increased by 0.9% q/q in Q2, up from 0.4% q/q in Q1, as office rents rose at the fastest quarterly rate since the financial crisis. At the same time, yields fell for the sixteenth consecutive quarter and have now …
July’s money and credit data show a pick-up in lending growth, despite concerns about banks’ health and the UK’s vote for Brexit. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain weak. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
August’s sharp fall in the German Ifo survey points to a slowdown in annual German economic growth to around 1%. … German Ifo Survey …
25th August 2016
Some have argued that a new trade deal between the EU and Indonesia may arrest the decline in the latter’s exports of tin. However, structural issues constraining tin exports mean that it is unlikely that any agreement would provide much of a boost to …
Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside. … Rate cut in Iceland set to be a …
24th August 2016
August’s slight rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that, while the region has so far weathered the UK’s Brexit vote, economic conditions remain fairly subdued. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
23rd August 2016
The sharp rise in Portugal’s bond yields last week reflected justified concerns about the government’s credit rating. While the Government intends to stick to the EU’s fiscal rules, slow economic growth will leave its credit rating in doubt for some time. …
22nd August 2016
Property yields fell again in Q2 as demand for prime property remained strong. But, with mostbond yields falling in the second quarter, property still looks fairly valued. … Lower bond yields counteract falling property …
19th August 2016
Most information about Germany implies that the economy has continued to perform well after the UK’s Brexit vote. The main exception is the ZEW survey, which suggests that GDP growth could drop to zero. However, while the ZEW shouldn’t be disregarded …
If the ECB is to accelerate and extend its asset purchases next month as we anticipate, it will need to address the programme’s limitations, particularly relating to German debt. We think that the ECB could buy a higher proportion of the Bunds that are …
18th August 2016
With Dutch housing investment back at pre-crisis levels, there is little scope for further strong growth. And although interest rates are at record lows, surveys suggest that firms have little need to boost investment. As a result, Dutch investment growth …
17th August 2016
With Lisbon office and retail valuations looking increasingly stretched, and periodic spikes in Portuguese government bond yields, the risks to property market pricing appear to be on the rise. … Should investors be concerned about Lisbon …
August’s German ZEW investor survey shows that sentiment has partly recovered from July’s Brexit-related decline, but it still points to a sharp slowdown in German GDP growth to come. … German ZEW Survey (Aug.) & Euro-zone Trade …
16th August 2016
Italy’s economic recovery is slowing. And with big risks to the near-term outlook from the banking sector and the forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform, we suspect that the economy is heading back into a long period of economic stagnation or …
15th August 2016
Last week’s euro-zone Q2 GDP data revealed a strong contrast between the region’s strongest and weakest performers, with the French and Italian economies looking particularly vulnerable. In the second half of the year, we expect growth across the region …
12th August 2016
While Q2’s GDP growth was left unrevised at 0.3% in the second estimate, the softoutlook for both growth and inflation suggests that the ECB still has more work to do. … Euro-zone GDP (Q2 …
Swedish inflation unexpectedly reached a fresh four-year high in July. But inflation is still below the Riksbank’s target and it is too soon to rule out further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
11th August 2016
The acute phase of Russia’s latest economic crisis now appears to be behind it. However, the prospect of only a weak economic recovery means that a strong rebound of the Moscow commercial property market appears unlikely. … Moscow property about to turn a …
Swedish inflation unexpectedly reached a fresh four-year high in July. But inflation is still below the Riksbank’s target and it is too soon to rule out further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul. …
Inflation in Norway has been much stronger than the central bank forecast in June, so an interest rate cut in September looks unlikely. But we still expect inflation to fall sharply over the next 12 months. So policy loosening should come back on the …
10th August 2016
Fund managers have reported that they are lowering their return targets in response to the lower interest rate environment and increased competition for commercial property assets. This suggests that they will be willing to pay lower yields than would …
8th August 2016
Despite June’s rise in German industrial production, output in the sector fell in Q2 compared to Q1. Industrial growth should pick up a little in the months ahead, but it is likely to remain subdued by Germany’s past impressive standards. … German …
The Bank of England’s policy action last week added to the pressure on the ECB to do more. At the moment, the ECB’s self-imposed restrictions would prevent a large expansion of its asset purchase programme. But those limitations can be amended, so should …
5th August 2016
The UK’s Brexit vote does not appear to have had a marked adverse impact on the euro-zone economy so far as the main survey indicators rose slightly in July. But Q2 GDP data confirmed that economic activity was already slowing before the referendum: GDP …
4th August 2016
With heightened uncertainty stemming from last month’s failed coup attempt in Turkey, a slowdown in economic growth and further weakness in the lira will put downward pressure on prime Istanbul retail rents (in US dollar terms) over the second half of the …
The early signs are that while the euro-zone economy has been largely unharmed by the UK’s vote for Brexit, the Irish economy, which has particularly strong trade links with the UK, has taken a hit. That said, it is far too early to suggest that the vote …
With no sign of a government, a third Spanish election is possible. Even if one is avoided, Catalonia’s bid for independence means that political uncertainty will continue to darken Spain’s prospects. … No sign of an end to political uncertainty in …
3rd August 2016
Public finances improved across the region in Q1, and timelier central government data suggest that the peripheral countries continued to perform well in Q2. Meanwhile, Portugal and Spain avoided fines for breaking fiscal rules, but even adjusted targets …
