Filtered by Topic: Trump's second term Use setting Trump's second term
President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the countries targeted – Canada, Mexico and China – to head …
26th November 2024
Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding what policies president-elect Donald Trump will enact during his second term, there is a temptation to read a lot into his Cabinet nominations, but we would caution against that. Following his comprehensive …
25th November 2024
Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the support for manufacturing investment aligns with Trump’s …
22nd November 2024
With the dust settling on Trump’s victory earlier this month, this Update takes stock of what has happened across currencies, bonds, and equities; the reasons for these moves; and what we think will happen next. As was the case after Trump’s win in 2016, …
Given our expectation that the Trump administration will push forward with plans to raise tariffs across the board, we have generally revised down our forecasts for stock markets outside the US. And with China being the main target of the trade war, we …
21st November 2024
Friendshoring into India has for the most part been limited to high-end manufactured goods, but broader supply chain reconfiguration into the country could take place if the Trump administration imposes a 60% tariff on China. Trump has also been critical …
The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating tensions with Washington. The imposition of …
20th November 2024
We held a series of client meetings in the US last week which focused on the implications of Trump’s victory in the US election and the spillovers to EMs. This Update answers some of the most frequent and important questions that came up. What impact will …
We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be little changed. So the effect of FX moves on growth and …
18th November 2024
US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there could be social and fiscal costs, as well as lower …
We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down our already below-consensus GDP growth forecasts any …
15th November 2024
President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers and exporters of CO 2 emissions is likely to shrink …
14th November 2024
While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing our home sales forecast to show a shallower and later …
Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the economic implications for Russia and Ukraine, for Europe …
If Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose a high sector-specific tariff on European cars, German firms could suffer a big reduction in exports, deepening the crisis in the sector and adding another headwind to economic growth. That would be …
13th November 2024
Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One key point in all of this is that policymakers don’t have …
7th November 2024
We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher projections for the 10-year Treasury yield and the greenback. …
COP29 – which is set to kick off in Baku next week – has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’ given that the top priority for negotiators will be to agree on a new climate finance pledge. However, Trump’s election victory looms large over the event and adds to …
Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP . The bigger challenge for policymakers could be the …
EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift. It is plausible that a sizeable portion of the loss …
30th October 2024
The outcome of the US election won’t have a sizeable impact on most commodity prices over the next few months. Instead, differences between the candidates’ views on vehicle emissions, LNG exports and foreign policy stance on Iran could affect oil and gas …
29th October 2024
All our analysis on how the US election could affect emerging market economies can be found on our dedicated webpage . A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a …
A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets (notably Turkey) could hike rates and others that are …
24th October 2024
Recent threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico’s vehicle sector could just be pre-election bluster or an attempt to get concessions from Mexico. But if implemented, they would deal a big blow to Mexico’s economy – a 0.6% drop in real GDP for …
23rd October 2024
A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and the need to spend more on defence at a time when fiscal …
22nd October 2024
With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To recap, we suspect Trump’s proposed curbs on immigration …
On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway is that if Trump were to follow through on his mooted …
7th October 2024
A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and (possibly) a global retreat from free trade. All of this would …
12th September 2024
Several organisations have estimated that a universal 10% tariff on US imports, as proposed by Donald Trump, would reduce euro-zone GDP by at least 1%. We think the hit would be much less than 0.5%. We commented previously on the impact that Donald …
8th August 2024
We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric vehicle (EV) sector. We expect that both supply and …
25th July 2024
It is not clear that Donald Trump, if elected, would gain much from trying to force Fed Chair Jerome Powell out of the role only a year before his term expires anyway. Trump might instead focus his efforts on securing Senate approval for future …
11th July 2024
Trump, the Fed, and the dollar Most of the major policy initiatives being suggested by Donald Trump’s campaign would be inflationary; whether it’s narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation, curbing immigration or, now we learn, …
29th April 2024
Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated), then Vietnam should benefit from a new round of Trump …
18th March 2024
We estimate that in the near-term, the drag on Japan’s exports resulting from of a universal 10% US import tariff could be nearly offset by Japan gaining market share at the expense of China in response to a much higher US tariff on Chinese imports. …
26th February 2024
Speculation will inevitably build that a Donald Trump victory in this year’s presidential election would be followed, once again, by large-scale tax cuts. With the Federal budget outlook in a far worse position than back in 2017, however, it’s notable …
12th February 2024
The stakes could not be higher for this year’s presidential election – with the head-to-head rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump offering starkly contrasting polices on trade, the environment and international relations. Historically, US …
2nd October 2023
