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The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think US economic outperformance will translate into …
8th July 2024
With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much about the UK’s public debt. But there is little room for …
5th July 2024
We’re holding a 20-minute online briefing today (9.30am BST 5 th July) to discuss what a Labour government means for the economy and the financial markets. (Register here .) The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour …
Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while the major northern ports have seen further falls. With …
4th July 2024
The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said, given the incoming government’s commitment to creating a …
3rd July 2024
The consensus is still downbeat on the outlook for retail rents, with growth expected to underperform even the struggling office sector. But with a decent consumer recovery on the horizon we think that pessimism is misplaced. As inflation falls back and …
2nd July 2024
Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While we think an agreement will eventually be found, budget …
1st July 2024
The slight increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year appears to have reached a tipping point for demand. At the same time, the supply of homes being put up for sale has increased. This combination of softening demand and more ample supply …
27th June 2024
News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been backed by some of the worst-performing assets across …
If the polls are correct and Labour wins the election, the policies it implements and when it implements them will depend in part on the ‘headroom’ against the fiscal rules it is given by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). We suspect the next …
CNB cuts by larger-than-expected 50bp, but delivers hawkish guidance The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to deliver another 50bp cut to its policy rate today, to 4.75%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). That said, …
The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to generate a sustained fall in the euro. That is a plausible …
May’s data show a continued gradual increase in money and lending growth, though both remain slow. While the ECB’s loosening cycle is now underway, money and lending growth are set to remain subdued. The ECB’s previous monetary tightening caused the …
A soft start to 2024 for office demand and weak jobs outlook in Benelux suggest that recent rental outperformance will not last. With supply also rising, we think prime rental growth will slow to around the euro-zone average in the coming years. Prime …
Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for the last 30 years. While some moderation in buy-to-let …
25th June 2024
We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany (see here ), however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin . Munich prime rent growth has been among the strongest …
If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). Under some …
This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three sections: politics, economics, and markets. (The online …
24th June 2024
Recent political uncertainty in France has taken a big toll on equities there, but stock markets elsewhere in the euro-zone have generally avoided major selloffs. That’s broadly consistent with past episodes of country-specific flare-ups in the region, …
21st June 2024
With all eyes on France, it is easy to forget that the Netherlands has also been experiencing political disruption over the last 12 months. But politics there has proved less disruptive to markets and we expect economic growth in the Netherlands to …
With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to much in the way of property yield compression. Rather, …
The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on Ukraine’s large external financing needs. This Update …
20th June 2024
Having cut the policy rate by 25bp at its last meeting, we think the Riksbank will stick with its guidance that it will keep rates on hold next week. But with inflation likely to fall below 2% in the coming months, policymakers will probably cut the …
We see three scenarios for French fiscal policy in the coming months. Even in the best case the spread of French over German bond yields remains higher than before Macron called an early election. In the worst case there is a fully-fledged bond market and …
The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause central banks to lose control of monetary policy or …
The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. This lends some support to our view that the Bank will first cut rates …
The SNB’s decision to cut the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was probably more influenced by the appreciation of the franc over the last two months than any perceived easing in domestic inflation pressures. In our view, the SNB is unlikely to cut rates …
Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the outlook for property valuations and in turn we now expect …
The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in policymaking, nor will it deal with the structural factors …
19th June 2024
We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see scope for spreads to fall back in Greece, Portugal, …
Easing cycle slows again, limited room for rate cuts in H2 The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate …
18th June 2024
Data released this morning suggest that May’s surprisingly large jump in euro-zone services inflation may have been due to the most unlikely of culprits: Taylor Swift. So to some extent, the ECB can “shake it off” (apologies). Wage-sensitive inflation …
The tightening of fiscal constraints is putting pressure on politicians to pare back green investment ambitions. But kicking the fiscal can down the road on measures that could accelerate the green transition will probably lead to greater macroeconomic …
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non-compliant ones. 1. What is the EUDR? The EUDR is a new …
17th June 2024
The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form a government after the upcoming elections, we suspect a …
14th June 2024
The latest Crane Survey reported that a record high 16.4m sq. ft. of London office space was under construction in Q1. That in part reflects developers delaying projects until the demand outlook becomes more certain. But a decent level of new starts also …
13th June 2024
While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three plausible scenarios and the possible implications for the …
The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much stronger than ahead of the March meeting, which we think …
Norges Bank will leave its policy rate at 4.5% next week and reiterate that rate cuts are some way off. We think it will wait until December to start loosening monetary policy. As a reminder, the press release following Norges Bank’s meeting in May said …
We doubt the outcome of the UK’s general election will have a big impact on UK equities in general. Nonetheless, we still expect them to continue to underperform US equities. We don’t think the Labour Party’s return to power – which the polls suggest is …
Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the market increasing at the same time, prices are likely …
France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the chance of France reducing its deficit to 3% of GDP by 2027, …
11th June 2024
Sluggish economic growth in the euro-zone’s trading partners and a deterioration in competitiveness caused an extremely rare absolute decline in euro-zone export volumes last year. Poor competitiveness will remain a perennial problem, but global growth …
The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t think it signals a further improvement in activity to …
The ECB began its easing cycle today, as expected, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest that it will proceed cautiously. We now think the Bank will cut interest rates by only a further 50bp before the end of the year, with the next cut …
6th June 2024
Indications that take-up stabilised across many markets in Q1 were encouraging. However, looking ahead we think the prospects for occupier demand are better in southern European markets. As we recently highlighted , there were tentative signs that Europe …
Whoever wins the general election on 4 th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space. Second, it could keep the current fiscal rules and …
5th June 2024
Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields over the next couple of months. But we still think …
4th June 2024
Having lagged behind other emerging market (EM) currencies for most of the post-pandemic period, the Polish zloty has lead the pack over the past six months. While we think that most of this rally has now run its course, we expect the zloty to stay …
3rd June 2024
With the government debt-to-GDP ratio likely to trend up over the medium term, and the budget deficit set to stay above 3% of GDP, we suspect that France will be subject to further rating downgrades in future. The risks are significantly higher in the …
