Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The Delta variant does not appear to have taken hold in mainland Europe as yet, but the experience of the Alpha variety suggests that it could be dominant by the end of July. While this would be far from helpful, it should not prevent the euro-zone …
16th June 2021
We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty faring best. Until recently, currencies in Central and …
10th June 2021
With emission targets needing to be met by 2030, the race is on for the real estate sector to decarbonise. By forcing tenants and landlords to share the risks, benefits and costs of environmental policies, green commercial leases are a promising tool, and …
While the vaccine rollout in Europe has finally kicked into gear, the legacy of the slow start means the EU is more exposed than the UK or the US if the Indian variant spreads quickly amongst the unvaccinated. The vaccine rollout on the continent has gone …
18th May 2021
Last year, rents held up better in Barcelona’s CBD, and we expect this trend to continue this year. That said, higher rents in the CBD mean that they are also likely to be hit harder from the shift to remote working and associated reductions in office …
13th May 2021
Following stronger than expected Q1 data, we have revised up our rental forecast for 2021. And Prague’s low costs and constrained supply means that we think rental growth has further to go this year. Following an increase of 0.5% last year, we had …
6th May 2021
More working from home will inevitably change cities as we know them. However, cities are more than just workers. This means that cities where a higher share of jobs can be done remotely are not necessarily the ones where the impact of remote working on …
5th May 2021
Recent developments add weight to our view that Stockholm office values will rise by more than most other western European markets over the 2021-25 period. However, even in Stockholm, these gains will be much weaker than in recent years. In our latest set …
29th April 2021
With retailers in Belgium set to remain under pressure due to shifts in spending, we think that prime high street rents will extend their falls this year. And with e-commerce remaining a dark cloud over retail, the recovery in rents beyond this year will …
21st April 2021
Initial demand indicators support our view of further falls in Dublin office rents this year. And with construction on hold, spill overs from delayed completions could threaten the rental recovery. CBRE data for Q1 showed that weak economic activity and …
14th April 2021
Few office or retail markets currently look economically viable for residential conversions. However, expected falls in values, particularly for retail, and acute housing shortages suggest that there is scope for conversions to increase in many markets. …
9th April 2021
While we have revised down our oil price forecast for Q2 and Q3 this year in response to the OPEC+ decision to ease production cuts, we still think a rebound in global demand will help push oil prices back above $70 per barrel. We expect weaker oil demand …
8th April 2021
After declining in 2021, we think that favourable supply conditions and a rebound in consumer spending will support a recovery in Budapest retail rents into next year. And while the sharp increase in online shopping last year suggests a downside risk to …
Travel restrictions will hold back cross-border capital flows until at least H2. And given that we expect extra-European capital to return particularly slowly, total investment is set to recover gradually in 2021. With travel restrictions tight for most …
1st April 2021
Despite a more supportive outlook for property valuations, we think that weaker rental prospects will result in southern European property markets continuing to underperform into 2022. Last year we highlighted that southern European property would …
30th March 2021
Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’) as part of its plan to tackle carbon leakage and …
26th March 2021
The easing of virus restrictions in Greece this week – despite rising case numbers – is unlikely to change the picture for Q1; the economy probably contracted. Moreover, if it leads to a faster spread of the virus, it could even delay the start of the …
23rd March 2021
Thanks to changing consumption patterns and structural and cyclical knocks to the traditional property sectors, both occupier and investor demand for data centres set new records last year. But, while further strong growth is likely, we don’t expect these …
19th March 2021
Dutch GDP fell much less than the euro-zone average last year and, even though the economy is unlikely to avoid contraction in Q1, we think it will regain its pre-crisis level sooner than any other major euro-zone economy. Next week’s election should not …
10th March 2021
The underwhelming vaccine rollout in Europe will probably delay the easing of restrictions and means that the best of the vaccine bounce will be pushed into Q3. That said, the planned EU-wide vaccine passport offers a lifeline for tourist-dependent …
2nd March 2021
In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns will be lower than in the recent past, but that property …
1st March 2021
Following the decline in 2020, we think prime office rents in Amsterdam will hold steady this year. But rental growth should pick up thereafter, supported by continued growth in the information and communication sector, comparatively low rents and the …
17th February 2021
In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most real estate is clustered. We think it is premature to …
4th February 2021
Differences in rental prospects and risk premia confirm our view that, despite looking overvalued compared to government bond yields, there is still scope for larger falls in industrial yields in the German markets compared to most southern European …
1st February 2021
Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on prime assets this year, allowing prime office and …
18th January 2021
Recent movements in the REIT market add weight to our view that structural factors, rather than cyclical ones, will determine the outlook for property markets over the coming years. In turn, irrespective of a successful vaccine rollout, the recovery in …
14th January 2021
Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets out these assumptions in more detail and discusses the …
13th January 2021
We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year. The fortunes of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone …
7th January 2021
While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here ), and the uneven start suggests that some countries will make …
Despite a brighter economic outlook later in 2021, many of the factors that weighed on investment activity last year are set to persist. In turn, following a likely 20% fall in European (excluding UK) investment in 2020, we think the recovery this year is …
Although the rollout of effective vaccines should allow economic activity to rebound in the second half of the year, we do not think that European property markets will bounce back quickly. This Update outlines four key developments to watch out for in …
6th January 2021
Yesterday’s approval of the first vaccine by European authorities marked the start of the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, which we expect to lead to a lifting of restrictions in Q2. However, the gradual pace at which production is being ramped …
22nd December 2020
The ECB’s message that it will persist with its flexible asset purchase programme until at least early 2022 should reassure investors that there will not be a reversal of the compression of bond yields anytime soon. Beyond then, there is a little more …
10th December 2020
A weaker CEE rental outlook, coupled with tighter policy and investors’ reassessment of the sector, suggest that the recent widening between CEE and euro-zone office yields has further to go. As the severity of the pandemic became clear, we argued that …
3rd December 2020
News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term, next year is still likely to be tough for most property …
2nd December 2020
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in Europe, but it now seems likely that it will be delivered to those most vulnerable to the disease by Q2 next year, which would help to reduce the risk of damaging runs on …
17th November 2020
Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best in Germany. The official data only run up until …
Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this year, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the US or …
12th November 2020
While an effective vaccine would greatly improve the outlook for next year, the latest data show that the virus is still spreading rapidly. Unless this is reversed soon, the one-month lockdowns in place in many euro-zone countries may be extended, keeping …
10th November 2020
If an effective vaccine is rolled out in the euro-zone in the coming months, it would lead to stronger growth next year but slower growth in 2022. With light at the end of the tunnel, policy support may be just as generous in the short term and be more …
9th November 2020
The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. The lockdowns being implemented across the euro-zone are …
4th November 2020
We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of the first wave, which is a quite plausible, would result …
3rd November 2020
European investment activity is likely to remain subdued into 2021, as pricing has been slow to adjust and investors continue to push back investment decisions in the current uncertain environment. CBRE data showed that there were no signs of a recovery …
29th October 2020
We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the lockdowns stay in place for much longer than a month, are …
Even though lockdown restrictions had eased, office take-up in Paris in Q3 was still well below pre-virus levels. And the recent imposition of tighter restrictions in Paris will likely curtail leasing activity in Q4. With similar strict measures likely in …
16th October 2020
