Found 1395 results.

Strong payrolls point to Treasury yields rising a touch further

Polls point to a Conservative win at the UK general election, but a majority is not a done deal Fed, ECB and SNB likely to keep their policy rates unchanged … … but central banks in Turkey and Russia will probably cut theirs Key Market Themes With …

6th December 2019
Indian equities likely to fare better than bonds

German industrial production probably stabilised in October (07.00 GMT) We forecast that US non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 last month (13.30 GMT) US consumer confidence index likely to have remained at high level (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
Bonds

Equities
5th December 2019
Widening trade conflicts may hurt US equities more

Spanish and Italian composite PMIs probably fell below 50 in November (08.15/08.45 GMT) We think that the US ISM non-manufacturing index rose a bit last month (15.00 GMT) Chile’s central bank likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 1.50% (21.00 GMT) Key …
Equities
3rd December 2019
Higher yields unlikely in Germany, even if coalition breaks

The RBA will probably keep rates unchanged, but we expect cuts next year (03.30 GMT) We forecast that South Africa’s GDP contracted in Q3 (09.30 GMT) … … but that Brazil’s GDP increased strongly (11.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While its new leadership will …

2nd December 2019
Lingering uncertainty limits the near-term upside for sterling

Japan’s industrial production probably fell after the tax hike in October (Thu., 23.50 GMT) We think that GDP contracted in Sweden while growth slowed in Finland and Denmark in Q3 Euro-zone inflation is likely to have risen in November (Fri., 10.00 GMT) …

28th November 2019
Low VIX is not a recipe for disaster

ESI likely to remain consistent with weak growth in the euro-zone (10.00 GMT) Retail sales in Japan probably plunged following October’s sales tax hike (23.50 GMT) We think that Switzerland’s economy contracted in Q3 (06.45 GMT) Key Market Themes We don’t …

27th November 2019
RBA likely to launch QE in 2020, boosting Aussie bonds

US Q3 GDP growth will probably be confirmed at 1.9% q/q annualised (13.30 GMT) US durable goods and income & spending reports for October are due … … and are likely to reiterate that underlying domestic demand growth has continued to slow Key Market …
Bonds

Monetary Policy
26th November 2019
Grim outlook for euro-zone growth suggests more euro weakness

RBA Governor Lowe’s speech could shed some light on the likelihood of QE in Australia We think that consumer confidence picked up in the US in November (15.00 GMT) A rise in inflation is likely to force Nigeria’s central bank to stand pat Key Market …

25th November 2019
EZ yields likely to fall further as pleas for fiscal stimulus ignored

UK Conservative party to release its manifesto for the December general election US durable goods data for October were probably affected by the GM strike (Wednesday) We think that Japan’s retail sales plunged in October following the sales tax hike …
Fiscal Policy
22nd November 2019
Trump has not been kind to equities exposed to China

Despite the sales tax hike, inflation in Japan is likely to have risen only slightly (23.30 GMT) PMIs in the US and the euro-zone probably edged up in November … … but we think that they remain consistent with weak GDP growth in both countries Key Market …
Equities
21st November 2019
UK election campaign could be the calm before the storm

Fed minutes will probably reiterate that further rate cuts are unlikely (19.00 GMT) UK public finances may have improved since September (09.30 GMT) We think that euro-zone consumer confidence picked up in November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although …

20th November 2019
Prospects for government bonds brighter in Australia than the US

Japan’s imports probably fell sharply after the October tax hike (Tue., 23.50 GMT) We think that China’s 1-year Loan Prime Rate edged down last month (Wed., 01.30 GMT) Fed minutes might reveal extent of support for a pause in rate cuts (Wed., 19.00 GMT) …
Bonds
19th November 2019
Global equities remain vulnerable even if a trade deal is finalised

US housing starts probably rebounded strongly in October (08.30 GMT) Hungary’s central bank likely to keep interest rates on hold (13.00 GMT) We think that Canada’s manufacturing sales were unchanged in September (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With the …
Equities
18th November 2019
Is the CAPE covering up the true valuation of the S&P 500?

Japan’s imports may have fallen sharply due to the sales tax hike (Tuesday) We think that China’s loan prime rate will be cut by 5bp (Wednesday) Fed minutes will probably reiterate that further easing is unlikely (Wednesday) Key Market Themes Although the …

15th November 2019
Dollar bear case is unconvincing

Unlike the consensus, we think that Japan’s GDP growth accelerated in Q3 (23.50 GMT) Spending and activity in China probably held up well in October (02.00 GMT) Policy rates in Egypt and Mexico are likely to be cut Key Market Themes While the US dollar …

13th November 2019
Euro-zone banks’ outperformance unlikely to last

Unlike the consensus, we doubt that the RBNZ will cut rates (01.00 GMT) We think that euro-zone industrial production rose a bit in September (10.00 GMT) Fed Chair Powell due to testify to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress (11.00 GMT) Key Market …

12th November 2019
EZ bond spreads likely to stay tight despite political uncertainty

President Trump’s speech may provide news on trade negotiations (17.00 GMT) Weaker UK labour market figures would make an early rate cut more likely (09.30 GMT) Norway’s economy probably continued to outperform in Q3 (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes In spite …

11th November 2019
Dollar likely to stay strong as trade tensions continue

China spending and activity probably held up well in October (Thursday) We think that Germany’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q3 (Thursday) Rates cuts likely in Mexico and Egypt (Thursday) Key Market Themes Until President Trump ’s negative …

8th November 2019
Looser fiscal policy unlikely to mean a bloodbath for Gilts

China’s exports are likely to have continued to contract last month We forecast that employment in Australia fell by 10,000 in October (13.30 GMT) US index of consumer confidence was probably little changed in November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
Fiscal Policy
7th November 2019
Trade deal unlikely to provide more upside for global equities

Central banks of Thailand and Iceland both likely to cut rates by 25bp Spanish and Italian PMIs probably dropped last month We think that euro-zone retail sales fell in September (10.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Optimism about a trade deal between the US and …
Equities
5th November 2019
US economy likely to deteriorate, keeping Treasury yields low

We expect a small rebound in the US ISM non-manufacturing index (Tue.) The central bank of Iceland is likely to cut its policy rate for the 5 th time this year (Tue.) … … while the Bank of England will probably stand pat for now (Thu.) Key Market Themes …

1st November 2019
Market forces unlikely to turn up the heat on the BoJ

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI probably dropped back in October (01.45 GMT) Inflation in Switzerland may have turned negative (07.30 GMT) We suspect that non-farm payrolls increased by just 25,000 due to the GM strike (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We …
Japan
31st October 2019
Soft landing for US economy unlikely to boost S&P 500 further

The Fed will probably cut interest rates by a further 25bp (Wednesday, 19.00 GMT) We think that the Bank of Japan will leave rates unchanged after its policy review (Thursday) China’s PMIs are likely to have dropped a bit in October (Thursday, 01.00 GMT) …

30th October 2019
We doubt that Fed policy will push Treasury yields up further

We think that US GDP slowed to 1.5% annualised in Q3 (12.30 BST) Bank of Canada is likely to keep rates on hold, but cut its growth forecasts (14.00 BST) Another 25bp rate cut by the Fed is widely expected (18.00 BST) Key Market Themes The 10-year US …

29th October 2019
Bond yields unlikely to revisit their lows this easing cycle

UK PM Boris Johnson will probably agree to delay Brexit until 31 st January at the latest … … and might get Parliament’s approval for a general election in early-December US consumer confidence probably rebounded in October (14.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …

28th October 2019
Draghi leaves, but ultra-low bond yields are probably here to stay

EU leaders to discuss whether to grant a delay to Brexit and, if so, for how long Germany’s IfO Business Climate Index (BCI) probably fell slightly in October (09.00 BST) Central Bank of Russia likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 6.50% (11.30 BST) …

24th October 2019
Bond yields likely to keep rising in Norway, but not in Sweden

We expect central banks in Indonesia and Turkey to cut their policy rates Internal divisions will remain the focus at Draghi’s last ECB meeting GM strike probably took a toll on US durable goods orders in September (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Higher …

23rd October 2019
No clear sign of a bubble in either US real estate or equities

UK Parliament scheduled to vote on Withdrawal Agreement Bill (Tuesday, 19.00 BST) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably worsened in October (Wednesday, 15.00 BST) Central bank of Chile likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday, 22.00 BST) Key …

22nd October 2019
Mixed fortunes for UK equities amid prospect of new Brexit deal

Ongoing protests in Chile unlikely to have much of an impact on financial markets UK government spending probably rose in September (09.30 BST) We estimate that retail sales in Canada picked up in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The comparatively …

21st October 2019
Resilience of US equities and corporate bonds unlikely to last

UK Parliament’s vote on the new Brexit deal is likely to be very tight (Saturday) No policy changes likely at Draghi’s last meeting as ECB President (Thursday) Central banks in China, Turkey, Indonesia and Russia will probably cut rates Key Market Themes …
Bonds
18th October 2019
Stock market bulls shouldn’t take much comfort from the mid-90s

China’s industrial production and retail sales probably recovered in September … … but we still think the economy slowed in Q3 as a whole (03.00 BST) Fed Clarida’s speech could shed some light on the probability of an October hike Key Market Themes Stock …

17th October 2019
BoE likely to tighten if Brexit deal is agreed, raising £ & Gilt yields

Retail sales in the UK are likely to have fallen again in September (09.30 BST) We estimate that US manufacturing output fell by 0.5% in September … … but industrial production probably declined by less as utilities output jumped Key Market Themes So much …

16th October 2019
US sanctions only worsen Turkish lira’s already-dire prospects

The Bank of Korea will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 BST) UK inflation is likely to have rebounded a bit last month (09.30 BST) We estimate that US retail sales rose by 0.2% m/m in September (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We think that …

15th October 2019
Trade deal wouldn’t prevent equities from slumping in our view

The UK and EU will try to strike a Brexit deal at a summit ending on Thursday US manufacturing output probably slumped in September We expect the Bank of Korea to cut its policy rate on Wednesday Key Market Themes Equity and bond markets have remained at …

11th October 2019
Inflation compensation unlikely to push bond yields lower

High-level trade talks between the US & China probably won’t lead to a comprehensive deal The central bank of Peru might cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% (00.00 BST) We think that consumer confidence in the US improved slightly in October (15.00 BST) …

10th October 2019
A pick-up in sterling looks increasingly far off

Even if US and China reach a partial trade deal this week, we doubt that it will last Account of ECB’s September meeting to highlight divisions among policymakers Latest round of tariffs probably drove US CPI inflation higher (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
Global
9th October 2019
ECB split unlikely to push up bond yields

Fed Chair Jerome Powell might give hints about future path of interest rates Germany’s industrial production probably declined in August (07.00 BST) We think that US producer prices fell a bit last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes As the euro-zone …

7th October 2019
US employment report doesn’t alter our view of equities & bonds

FOMC minutes for September to shed some light on the Fed’s thinking (Wednesday) The account of the last ECB meeting may show the extent of division in the council (Thursday) US CPI probably jumped, as the latest tariffs on Chinese imports start to bite …
Bonds
4th October 2019
US corporate credit spreads likely to start widening again soon

UK services PMI likely to have dropped back in September (09.30 BST) We think that euro-zone retail sales fell again in August (10.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index probably edged down only slightly last month (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes The recent …
Banks

Money and Credit
2nd October 2019
Dollar likely to strengthen further as risk appetite sours

Switzerland’s CPI inflation probably remained subdued in September (07.30 BST) We expect the policy rate to be cut in Iceland but remain unchanged in Poland US ADP’s measure of private-sector employment likely to be subdued (13.15 BST) Key Market Themes …

1st October 2019
Japan’s tax hike unlikely to have a big effect on markets there

RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (05.30 BST) We think that euro-zone headline inflation fell to about 0.8% in September (10.00 BST) The US ISM manufacturing index probably rebounded this month (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While …

30th September 2019
E-Z government bond yields unlikely to rebound anytime soon

Chinese PMIs will probably show that the economy remains under pressure (Monday) RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (Tuesday) We expect a subdued 125,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market Themes Euro-zone government …

27th September 2019
EM LC sovereign yields likely to rise despite dovish central banks

Mexico’s central bank will probably cut rates later on Thursday We think that the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a 4½-year low (10.00 BST) US personal spending data likely to show another rise in consumption in August (13.30 BST) Key …

26th September 2019
Political deadlock is likely to cap sterling’s gains

UK MPs to return to Parliament on Wednesday following Supreme Court ruling We think that the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate by 25bp (08.05 BST) But the New Zealand and Czech central banks will probably leave policy unchanged Key Market Themes …

24th September 2019
PMIs point to further losses in euro-zone risky assets

We think that the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator fell to a near-decade low (09.00 BST) UK Supreme Court to give its ruling on the prorogation of Parliament (10.30 BST) The central banks of Colombia and Hungary will probably leave rates unchanged …

23rd September 2019
Rally in sterling is built on shaky ground

Economic sentiment indices for the euro-zone and Germany probably edged up in September We expect the central banks of Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines and Egypt to cut rates Those in New Zealand, Colombia, the Czech Republic and Hungary are likely to …

20th September 2019
Even without a recession, both bonds and equities could suffer

A drop in fresh food prices probably weighed on Japan’s headline CPI inflation (00.50 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have bounced back in July (13.30 BST) We suspect that euro-zone consumer confidence deteriorated in September (15.00 BST) Key …
Bonds
19th September 2019
Surge in the US repo rate is not a major concern

The Fed is highly likely to deliver a 25bp cut at today’s FOMC meeting We expect Brazil’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp this evening But both the Bank of England and BoJ will probably keep rates on hold Key Market Themes The surge in US …

18th September 2019
Potential winners and losers from an oil shock

We think that Japan’s export values dropped by more than 10% y/y in August (08.50 BST) The FOMC will probably cut rates by 25bp for the second time in a row (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank is also likely to lower its main policy rate Key Market Themes …

17th September 2019
Market fallout from Aramco attacks likely to remain small

FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday widely expected to result in a 25bp rate cut UK-EU Brexit talks set to “intensify”, increasing optimism about a deal We think that US industrial production rebounded by 0.2% m/m in August (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …

16th September 2019

Strong payrolls point to Treasury yields rising a touch further

Indian equities likely to fare better than bonds

Widening trade conflicts may hurt US equities more

Higher yields unlikely in Germany, even if coalition breaks

Lingering uncertainty limits the near-term upside for sterling

Low VIX is not a recipe for disaster

RBA likely to launch QE in 2020, boosting Aussie bonds

Grim outlook for euro-zone growth suggests more euro weakness

EZ yields likely to fall further as pleas for fiscal stimulus ignored

Trump has not been kind to equities exposed to China

UK election campaign could be the calm before the storm

Prospects for government bonds brighter in Australia than the US

Global equities remain vulnerable even if a trade deal is finalised

Is the CAPE covering up the true valuation of the S&P 500?

Dollar bear case is unconvincing

Euro-zone banks’ outperformance unlikely to last

EZ bond spreads likely to stay tight despite political uncertainty

Dollar likely to stay strong as trade tensions continue

Looser fiscal policy unlikely to mean a bloodbath for Gilts

Trade deal unlikely to provide more upside for global equities

US economy likely to deteriorate, keeping Treasury yields low

Market forces unlikely to turn up the heat on the BoJ

Soft landing for US economy unlikely to boost S&P 500 further

We doubt that Fed policy will push Treasury yields up further

Bond yields unlikely to revisit their lows this easing cycle

Draghi leaves, but ultra-low bond yields are probably here to stay

Bond yields likely to keep rising in Norway, but not in Sweden

No clear sign of a bubble in either US real estate or equities

Mixed fortunes for UK equities amid prospect of new Brexit deal

Resilience of US equities and corporate bonds unlikely to last

Stock market bulls shouldn’t take much comfort from the mid-90s

BoE likely to tighten if Brexit deal is agreed, raising £ & Gilt yields

US sanctions only worsen Turkish lira’s already-dire prospects

Trade deal wouldn’t prevent equities from slumping in our view

Inflation compensation unlikely to push bond yields lower

A pick-up in sterling looks increasingly far off

ECB split unlikely to push up bond yields

US employment report doesn’t alter our view of equities & bonds

US corporate credit spreads likely to start widening again soon

Dollar likely to strengthen further as risk appetite sours

Japan’s tax hike unlikely to have a big effect on markets there

E-Z government bond yields unlikely to rebound anytime soon

EM LC sovereign yields likely to rise despite dovish central banks

Political deadlock is likely to cap sterling’s gains

PMIs point to further losses in euro-zone risky assets

Rally in sterling is built on shaky ground

Even without a recession, both bonds and equities could suffer

Surge in the US repo rate is not a major concern

Potential winners and losers from an oil shock

Market fallout from Aramco attacks likely to remain small