Japan’s economy probably contracted in Q1 (00.50 BST) We think UK CPI inflation increased to a 40-year high last month... (07.00 BST) ... but that it changed little on an annual basis in Canada (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The glass-half-full case for US …
17th May 2022
We think US industrial production edged up in April, while retail sales grew strongly We expect UK wage growth to have accelerated further in March (07.00 BST) Clients can sign up for our Drop-In on EM sovereign debt risks here Key Market Themes China ’s …
16th May 2022
We think China’s central bank will cut its benchmark MLF rate by 5bp (Mon.) UK CPI inflation may have hit a 40-year high in April (Wed.) We expect rate hikes in South Africa, Egypt and the Philippines next week Key Market Themes History suggests the S&P …
13th May 2022
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike by 50bp (Thu., 19.00 BST) Euro-zone industrial output might have dropped sharply in March (Fri., 10.00 BST) US consumer confidence probably remained very low in May (Fri., 15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
12th May 2022
We think the UK economy grew by just 0.2% m/m in March (07.00 BST) Mexico’s central bank expected to deliver another 50bp hike (19.00 BST) Clients can sign up for our Drop-In on China’s economy here (09.00 BST) Key Market Themes So far, at least, …
11th May 2022
China’s CPI inflation may have picked up last month (02.30 BST) We think that US CPI inflation eased in April, for the first time in eight months (13.30 BST) Clients can register for a Drop-In on our forecasts for global bonds, equities & currencies here …
10th May 2022
Germany’s ZEW sentiment indicator probably fell further in May (10.00 BST) We think that Norway’s headline inflation dropped back a bit in April (07.00 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In on the outlook for UK house prices here Key Market Themes …
9th May 2022
China’s trade, credit and inflation data may reveal the impact of virus disruptions We think annual CPI inflation fell in the US in April, for the first time in eight months (Wed.) Clients can register for a Drop-In on our forecasts for global bonds, …
6th May 2022
German industrial production probably fell by as much as 2% in March (07.00 BST) We think non-farm payrolls rose by a solid 375,000 in April … (13.30 BST) … and clients can register for a Drop-In on the April US payrolls numbers here (15.00 BST) Key …
5th May 2022
Fed likely to raise rates by 50bp and start quantitative tightening (Wed. 19.00 BST) We think the Norges Bank will leave its policy rate unchanged… (Thu. 09.00 BST) …and anticipate a 25bp hike from the Bank of England (Thu. 12.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
4th May 2022
Euro-zone retail sales may have risen slightly in March (10.00 BST) US Federal Reserve likely to raise rates by 50bp and commence QT (19.00 BST) Sign up for our Drop-In on the global inflation outlook here Key Market Themes We don’t subscribe to the view …
3rd May 2022
We think the Fed will hike by 50bp next week ... (Wed.) ... and expect rate hikes in the UK, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Czechia and Poland as well US non-farm payrolls probably continued to grow at a healthy pace in April (Fri.) Key Market Themes The …
29th April 2022
We think euro-zone core inflation edged up further in April … (10.00 BST) … and that the economy probably stagnated in Q1 (10.00 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In on the Bank of Japan here (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes We wouldn’t be surprised if …
28th April 2022
The Bank of Japan may widen its 10-year JGB tolerance band to ±50bp We expect Sweden’s Riksbank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 0.25% (08.30 BST) A fall in net exports probably caused US GDP to stagnate in the first quarter (13.30 BST) Key Market …
27th April 2022
Rising inflation in Australia may strengthen the case for a June rate hike (02.30 BST) We think that Brazil’s inflation jumped in the first half of April (13.00 BST) Russia’s March activity data likely to point to the onset of a deep recession (17.00 BST) …
26th April 2022
We think that economic activity in Korea held up relatively well in Q1 (00.00 BST) We expect the central bank in Hungary to raise its base rate by 100bp (13.00 BST) Core durable goods orders in the US probably rebounded in March (13.30 BST) Key Market …
25th April 2022
We expect rate hikes in Sweden, Hungary, and Colombia next week We think that US GDP growth slowed in the first quarter (Thu.) Euro-zone headline inflation probably edged higher in April (Fri.) Key Market Themes Financial sector equities have sold off in …
22nd April 2022
We think retail sales fell in the UK in March (09.00 BST) Euro-zone PMIs may have fallen sharply in the euro-zone in April ... (09.00 BST) ... and declined a bit in the US as well (14.45 BST) Key Market Themes Even if incumbent President Macron wins …
21st April 2022
Final HICP print should shed some more light on drivers of eurozone inflation (10.00 BST) Fed Chair Jerome Powell may strike hawkish tone at IMF discussion panel tomorrow Clients can sign up for tomorrow’s drop-in on France’s presidential election here …
20th April 2022
We expect a small cut in China’s Loan Prime Rate (02.15 BST) Canada’s inflation may have reached a fresh multi-decade high last month (13.30 BST) Sign up for our Drop-In on the potential consequences of France’s election here Key Market Themes Growing …
19th April 2022
Chinese activity data will reveal a sharp slowdown in March … (Mon.) … which reinforces our view that the PBOC will cut the Loan Prime Rate (Wed.) Register for our Drop-In on the key implications of the French election here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
14th April 2022
We expect Korea’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 BST) Australia’s unemployment rate may have fallen to a multi-decade low in March (02.30 BST) We think the ECB will leave policy unchanged tomorrow (12.45 BST) Key Market Themes While …
13th April 2022
We expect an above-consensus 50bp rate hike in New Zealand (03.00 BST) UK inflation probably rose even further last month (07.00 BST) Canada’s central bank may also raise rates by 50bp (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think US inflation peaked in …
12th April 2022
We think the UK unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in February (07.00 BST) We forecast US CPI inflation reached a new high of 8.4% in March (13.30 BST) Sign-up for our Drop-In on global inflation here Key Market Themes Even if the US earnings season – …
11th April 2022
US CPI inflation looks set to have hit a new high in March, but this could be the peak (Tue.) We expect rate hikes in Canada, Korea, New Zealand and Israel next week... ... but think China’s central bank may announce an unscheduled rate cut Key Market …
8th April 2022
We expect India’s central bank to leave rates on hold for now (05.30 BST) We think CPI inflation rose slightly in Brazil and Chile last month... ... while it may have reached nearly 20% in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the gold price has been …
7th April 2022
Euro-zone retail sales probably rose slightly in February (10.00 BST) We think Mexico’s inflation rose further in March, paving the way for a rate hike (12.00 BST) Canada’s federal budget may unveil a small increase in spending Key Market Themes We think …
6th April 2022
FOMC minutes may provide a clearer steer on plans for balance sheet reduction (19.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp Sign up for our Drop-In on the global inflation outlook here Key Market Themes The recent polling …
5th April 2022
We expect Australia’s central bank to keep its policy rate at 0.1% (05.30 BST) The US trade deficit is likely to have narrowed in February... (13.30 BST) ...while the ISM services index may have rebounded in March (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
4th April 2022
FOMC minutes may shed more light on the Fed’s plans to shrink its balance sheet (Wednesday) We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its policy settings unchanged… (Tuesday) …whereas central banks in Poland, Romania and Peru will probably hike …
1st April 2022
Euro-zone inflation probably rose to around 7.5% in March (10.00 BST) We anticipate a headline rise in US payrolls of 450,000… (13.30 BST) …and expect the ISM manufacturing index to have rebounded (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think China ’s stock …
31st March 2022
China’s official manufacturing PMI may have fallen below 50 this month (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone unemployment declined to a record low in February (09.30 BST) Clients can now view our US Recession Trackers here Key Market Themes While the sell-off in …
30th March 2022
The Bank of Thailand will probably stand pat, despite higher inflation (08.00 BST) We suspect business confidence in the euro-zone has fallen sharply this month (10.00 BST) Sign-up for our Drop-In on how the war is affecting the euro-zone economy here Key …
29th March 2022
We think retail sales in Australia rebounded strongly in February (01.30 BST) Consumer confidence in the US probably fell further this month (15.00 BST) We expect Chile’s central bank to deliver another 150bp rate hike (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even …
28th March 2022
Virus restrictions probably caused China’s PMIs to drop back in March (Thursday) We suspect that US non-farm payrolls rose by 450,000 this month (Friday) Headline inflation in the euro-zone may have picked up to 6.7% in March (Friday) Key Market Themes …
25th March 2022
We think Mexico’s central bank will hike its policy rate by 75bp (19.00 GMT) The rising cost of living probably weighed on UK retail sales in February (07.00 GMT) Clients can view our new China Activity Proxy dashboard here Key Market Themes While not our …
24th March 2022
We expect Norway’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp… (09.00 GMT) …and anticipate a 75bp hike from Mexico’s central bank (19.00 GMT) Clients can view our new China Activity Proxy dashboard here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year Gilts …
23rd March 2022
Hopes for a large support package from UK Chancellor Sunak may be disappointed… …even though inflation in the UK probably reached a 30-year high last month (07.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In on the impact of war in Ukraine on commodity markets here Key …
22nd March 2022
We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 75bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the macro and market impacts of the war in Ukraine here Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes The post-FOMC …
21st March 2022
Flash PMIs for March to give first steer on how the war in Ukraine has impacted DM economies UK chancellor may announce a small support package for households in the spring statement We expect Mexico’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp on …
18th March 2022
Bank of Japan may push back against speculation about policy tightening We suspect that Russia’s central bank will stand pat (10.30 GMT) Strong growth in Q4 may be as good as it gets for Chile’s economy (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The pound gave back …
17th March 2022
The Fed is widely expected to begin its tightening cycle (18.00 GMT) We think the BoE will continue its own hiking cycle with another 25bp rate rise (12.00 GMT) US industrial production data may show output rose fairly strongly in February (13.15 GMT) Key …
16th March 2022
We think that US retail sales rebounded in February (12.30 GMT) The Fed is widely expected to deliver its first rate hike of this cycle (18.00 GMT) Brazil’s central bank may hike its policy rate by another 100bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With several …
15th March 2022
We expect the PBOC to cut its Medium-term Lending Facility Rate by 10bp We think unemployment in the UK continued to edge lower in January (07.00 GMT) Producer price inflation in the US probably remained elevated last month (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
14th March 2022
We expect the Fed and the BoE to raise their policy rates by 25bp… (Wed. & Thu.) … and Brazil’s central bank to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 11.75% (Wed.) In contrast, policymakers in Japan, Russia and Turkey will probably leave rates unchanged Key …
11th March 2022
We think UK GDP will have reversed all of December’s drop in January (07.00 GMT) Higher oil prices probably weighed on US consumer confidence this month (15.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
10th March 2022
We estimate that US headline inflation reached 7.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Lagarde will probably try to strike a reassuring tone after tomorrow’s ECB meeting Korea’s presidential election too close to call ahead of final results tomorrow morning Key …
9th March 2022
Consumer price inflation in China probably remained subdued last month (01.30 GMT) … … while we think headline inflation in Mexico rose to almost 8% (12.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes We doubt that …
8th March 2022
We expect a 50bp rate hike in Poland, but there is a risk of a larger increase Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes History suggests that …
7th March 2022
China’s FX reserves data may reveal PBOC intervention (Mon.) We think the Russia-Ukraine war will mean the ECB delays its plans to normalise policy (Thu.) Core consumer prices in the US may have risen by less in February than January (Thu.) Key Market …
4th March 2022
