Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) …
19th February 2025
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024) …
25th November 2024
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023) …
23rd November 2023
Our latest Europe commercial property valuation monitor is embedded below: Property yields rose across all sectors and markets in Q2. However, this was somewhat offset by rises in bond yields in most countries. As a result, valuations remain stretched in …
23rd August 2023
The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that risk premia may rise again – and valuations may fall – …
26th July 2023
European property valuations continued to improve in Q1 on the back of further increases in property yields as well as falls in government bond yields. Nonetheless, all office and industrial markets aside from Istanbul remained overvalued. Indeed, we …
31st May 2023
Following a surge in property yields over the second half of last year, property moved closer to fair value again in Q1. Admittedly, on our measure the all-property score is still sitting in overvalued territory. (See Chart 1.) But that is largely due …
17th May 2023
Click here to read the full report . This revamped Global Markets Valuations Monitor combines and replaces our previous DM Valuations Monitor and EM Valuations Monito r publications. … Global Markets Valuations Monitor (May …
12th May 2023
A surge in property yields helped commercial property valuations improve for the first time in two years in the final quarter of 2022. Jumps in alternative asset yields late last year following the ‘mini-Budget’ meant the shift was modest, but those …
8th February 2023
Commercial property valuations began to stabilise in Q3, as a large rise in property yields helped offset a further rise in alternative asset yields. And with the reversal of the “mini-Budget” meaning 10-year gilt yields have now likely peaked, a …
10th November 2022
There is growing evidence that weakening demand in major economies is taking a toll on world trade. While trade volumes rose in August, early reporting Asian economies revealed a decline in imports in September, exports orders have fallen sharply across …
26th October 2022
As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial stability. With core bond and currency markets facing very …
Commercial property valuations worsened for the sixth quarter in a row in Q2, and for all-property is now the most overvalued since late 2007. But since the end of June gilt yields have edged back and we doubt they will match their previous peak over the …
11th August 2022
Higher alternative asset yields drove a sharp deterioration in European property valuations in Q1. (See Chart 1.) Valuation scores declined across all sectors, though retail remained in fair value territory. With the surge in bond yields continuing into …
9th June 2022
Commercial property valuations worsened further in Q1 and now look overvalued. The spread between property and gilt yields narrowed to its lowest level post-GFC, but still has some distance to fall to reach the lows of 2007. With more interest rate hikes …
10th May 2022
We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. Sharp rises in bond yields in developed markets this year – amid …
21st April 2022
Activity in large parts of the emerging world has rebounded following the easing of Omicron waves, but the war in Ukraine has caused the growth outlook for most EMs to worsen again. While commodity producers across the Gulf and parts of Latin America …
24th March 2022
Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period of risk aversion and capital outflows, this could cause …
10th March 2022
Higher government bond yields and falls in property yields across all sectors contributed to a deterioration in European property valuations in Q4. (See Chart 1.) While most industrial markets now look overvalued, for now we think that this is justified …
1st March 2022
Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely to be small and short-lived. Instead, high inflation …
22nd February 2022
Property valuations, compared to bonds and equities, deteriorated for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q4. The spread between the asset classes narrowed as the magnitude of the fall in all-property yields outweighed marginal downward moves in gilt and …
9th February 2022
The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and Poland, while recoveries in South Africa and Brazil have …
15th December 2021
The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with large falls in the lira than they were during the 2018 …
7th December 2021
Higher alternative asset yields and falls in office and industrial yields contributed to a further deterioration in property valuations in Q3. (See Chart 1.) The decline in government bond yields since then, which has been reinforced by concerns about the …
29th November 2021
Persistent supply shortages, fading reopening boosts and tighter financial conditions all pose headwinds to recoveries in Emerging Europe and Latin America over the coming quarters, while cooling construction activity looks set to weigh on growth in …
25th November 2021
Compared to bonds and equities, property valuations deteriorated further in Q3. This was due to a combination of a fall in property yields on the one side and a rise in both bond and equity yields on the other. Although we expect a less dramatic fall in …
12th November 2021
We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. Equity market valuations, as measured by price/forward …
18th October 2021
We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline . To recap, the valuation of the S&P 500, as measured by its blended 12-month forward …
8th October 2021
The latest data suggest that GDP growth in much of Emerging Asia slowed markedly in Q3, and that the recovery in Emerging Europe lost a bit of steam. Latin American economies generally strengthened, although the property slowdown in China poses a headwind …
27th September 2021
The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s largest property developer, Evergrande, appears to be close …
9th September 2021
The valuation of industrial and offices deteriorated compared to bonds and equities in Q2 on account of falls in property yields. Meanwhile, retail yields stabilised, leaving valuations broadly unchanged. (See Chart 1.) With government bond yields set to …
2nd September 2021
Most economies in Emerging Europe and Latin America look set for a strong third quarter and, while the near-term outlook for Southeast Asian economies remains challenging, high-frequency mobility provide early signs that at least parts of the region are …
25th August 2021
On our measure, property looked slightly worse value relative to bond and equities in Q2. The worsening was due to a marked fall in property yields, driven by the industrial sector. Outside of over-valued industrial, all other property sectors remained …
16th August 2021
After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. Our seasonally-adjusted measure of aggregate EM goods exports …
21st July 2021
While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years . Despite the fall in equity markets this week, the …
9th July 2021
The latest data suggest that the Central European and some Asian economies will probably post strong GDP growth in Q2, but virus outbreaks have weighed on recoveries in India and parts of Latin America. High-frequency mobility data paint a mixed picture …
22nd June 2021
The marked rise in government bond yields drove a deterioration in property valuations in Q1, particularly in industrial markets where property yields also fell steeply. (See Chart 1.) And with government bond yields edging up further in Q2, valuations …
2nd June 2021
With bond and equity dividend yields trending lower, valuations improved in Q4 for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. But in Q1, given the recent bond market rout, valuations are likely to deteriorate. (See Chart 1.) That said, the …
8th March 2021
Falls in alternative asset yields in Q3 meant valuations continued to improve for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. (See Chart 1.) And the backdrop is supportive of property valuations in the coming quarters. Indeed, government …
30th November 2020
The reversal in equity dividend yields following the virus-related market rout in March lead to a broad-based improvement in property valuations. (See Chart 1.) Coupled with central banks’ assurances that policy will remain accommodative for some time to …
3rd September 2020
The broad-based jump in equity dividend yields following the virus-driven collapse in equity prices meant that property valuations deteriorated in Q1. (See Chart 1.) This impact was exacerbated in southern Europe, as well as Russia and Turkey, where the …
4th June 2020
The uptick in government and corporate bond yields in Q4, coupled with the continued decline in property yields, resulted in a deterioration in the relative valuation of commercial property markets in Europe. (See Chart 1.) That said, less than a third of …
5th March 2020
Lower government bond yields improved the relative valuation of commercial property markets for the third consecutive quarter. (See Chart 1.) Less than one fifth of markets look overvalued, with more than half of industrial markets fairly valued. Since …
21st November 2019
A second consecutive quarter of sharp falls in bond yields has driven improved valuations in 90 of the 93 markets that we cover. As a result, less than a third of all markets look overvalued, the lowest proportion since the end of 2017. With bond yields …
23rd August 2019
