Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Wage growth fading fairly fast Another big drop in wage growth in November supports our view that domestic inflationary pressures are fading fairly fast. But the ongoing …
16th January 2024
German troubles not over yet Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year. Today’s data release shows that Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in calendar year 2023, and a …
15th January 2024
Fall in inflation won’t be sustained The small fall in Russian inflation to 7.4% y/y in December is likely to be temporary, and we still think that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We expect a 100bp rate hike (to 17.00%) next month. …
12th January 2024
NBR won’t cut rates as far as most expect in 2024 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut as far …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stagnation in Q4, but recovery in sight The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.2%) increases the chances that the economy escaped a recession …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fall in core inflation confirms Norges Bank is finished with rate hikes The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges …
10th January 2024
NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus view in recent …
9th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Regional sentiment continues to recover The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and …
8th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis. Rise in Swiss inflation will be reversed in January The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMIs still subdued in December The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing …
5th January 2024
Lower mortgage rates see house prices jump in December The big 1.1% m/m increase in the Halifax house price index confirms that falls in mortgage rates are translating into renewed increases in house prices. Given further recent falls in mortgage rates, …
Rebound in inflation won’t last The jump in Germany’s headline inflation rate in December came as no surprise as it was driven by energy price subsidies introduced more than a year ago. With core inflation continuing to trend down, it should not affect …
4th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Lower mortgage rates will ease the squeeze, but still some pain to come November’s money and credit data suggest that the recent falls in mortgage rates will stimulate new …
Strong November lending, but subdued investment volumes Net lending to commercial property increased for the ninth consecutive month in November, but that wasn’t reflected in investment volumes which dropped further. But throughout H1 2024 we expect …
Rise in mortgage approvals set to continue The rise in mortgage approvals in November was little surprise given the sharp drop back in mortgage rates since July. Given recent further falls in swap rates, mortgage rates are likely to continue to fall from …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs point to recession The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone in December was revised up significantly from the flash estimate of 47.0 to 47.6, meaning that it was unchanged …
Headline inflation picks up, but core inflation losing momentum The rise in Turkish inflation to 64.8% y/y in December was broadly in line with expectations and the breakdown provided some signs that underlying price pressures continue to soften. We think …
3rd January 2024
Flat prices in December confirm 2023 resilience Unchanged house prices in December ensured that over the course of 2023 they fell by much less than forecasters had expected. With mortgage rates falling, it is increasingly likely that house prices avoid …
29th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Dose of festive cheer for retailers, but unlikely to last into new year The 1.3% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November may have paused the recent retail woes as Black …
22nd December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Mildest of mild recessions may have begun in Q3 The final Q3 2023 GDP data release shows that the mildest of mild recessions may have started in Q3. But whether or not there is a …
Leaving the door open for one more hike Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a 250bp interest rate hike, to 42.50%, at today’s meeting and didn’t close the door on the tightening cycle. We’ve now pencilled in one more 250bp hike at the next meeting in …
21st December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Recovery stalls in November Poland’s activity data for November suggest that the economic recovery stalled last month, but we think that this is only a temporary blip. We still …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Still scope for pre-election splash in Spring Budget We doubt November’s public finances figures will prevent the Chancellor from unveiling a further pre-election fiscal splash …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Collapsing domestic inflationary pressures may mean BoE cuts rates earlier For the second month in a row, the falls in CPI inflation from 4.6% in October to 3.9% in November …
20th December 2023
This publication has been updated with additional analysis from the post-meeting press statement and press conference. 75bp cuts to continue for the time being The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we …
19th December 2023
CBR slows down tightening, cycle not yet over Russia’s central bank (CBR) delivered a 100bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting, to 16.00%, and we still think that strong inflation pressures will force another rate hike in Q1. Today’s hike was in line …
15th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Resilient activity to encourage BoE to double down on high for longer The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 50.7 in November to 51.7 in December, increased the …
ECB holding the line for now The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 4.0% today and make only limited changes to the policy statement suggests that policymakers are pushing back against market expectations for rate cuts to begin in March …
14th December 2023
Few signs Bank of England is starting to contemplate rate cuts The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent …
Tightening cycle comes to an end Today’s decision by Norges Bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50% marks the end of its tightening cycle. Looking ahead, we have pencilled in a faster pace of rate cuts next year than policymakers currently …
SNB leaves rates unchanged, but policy loosening is imminent The SNB kept rates on hold at 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, but the monetary policy statement was dovish as policymakers placed less emphasis on selling FX assets and reduced their inflation …
Heading in the right direction The larger-than-expected fall in all the main measures of Swedish inflation in November will not prompt the Riksbank to cut interest rates at its next meeting but it does make us more confident in our call that rate cuts …
Economy slowing at the start of Q4 The further softening in Turkish retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the slowdown in the economy continued at the start of Q4. We think it’s possible that GDP contracts outright this …
13th December 2023
Contraction in October sets scene for stagnation in 2024 Note: We’ll be discussing the Fed, ECB and Bank of England December decisions and the policy outlook for 2024 in an online briefing on Thursday, 14 th December . Click here to register for the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sharp fall in wage growth will further fuel market rate cut expectations The sharp fall in wage growth in October will probably further fuel investors’ expectations that interest …
12th December 2023
Sharp fall in inflation, but rates likely to be left on hold next week The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we …
11th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sticky inflation to force Norges Bank into one final hike The rise in the headline rate and slight fall in the core rate in November was broadly in line with the central bank’s …
Price pressures continue to mount The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the case for a 100bp …
8th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Industrial recession continues The fifth successive monthly fall in industrial output in October suggests that industry will again be a drag on economic activity in Q4 and will …
7th December 2023
Halifax confirms that prices are on the rise again The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in November mirrored the increase in the Nationwide index, confirming that house prices have not only stabilised, but are rising. …
Easing cycle paused The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the disinflation process likely to stall over the …
6th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMIs once again below 50 in November The headline CIPS construction PMI barely changed in November, settling at 45.5 from 45.6 in October, and was still below the 50 …
PMIs show recession and fading price pressures Final PMIs published today were revised up from the flash estimates but still suggest that the economy is probably in recession and that price pressures are fading. The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone …
5th December 2023
This publication has been updated with additonal analysis and charts. Falling inflation means rate cuts are near The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation to 1.4% in November ensures that the SNB will not be at all tempted to raise interest rates in …
4th December 2023
This publication has been updated due to an error in the previous version. Further evidence of easing price pressures The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. CEE turning a corner The manufacturing PMIs in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) rose in November suggesting that industrial sectors in the region are turning a corner, while …
1st December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts. Export-driven strength unlikely to last The 0.3% q/q increase in GDP was better than the consensus and our own forecasts (consensus: 0.1%; CE: 0.0%) but there was a downward revision to Q2 …
Rising prices continue to confound forecasters The further small increase in the Nationwide house price index in November was unexpected and came on the heels of an even larger rise in October. It means house prices are on track to fall by just 2% y/y in …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone HICP (September) Faster disinflation brings earlier rate cuts into view The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in November means it is becoming increasingly …
30th November 2023
Disinflation process entering a slower phase The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the central bank …
