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UK GDP (Feb. 2024)

The 0.1% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus and CE +0.1%) and the upward revision to the gain in January from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% m/m all-but confirms the recession ended in Q4. But while we expect a better economic recovery than most, we doubt it will be strong enough to prevent inflation (and interest rates) from falling further as appears to be happening in the US.

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