Filtered by Subscriptions: US Commercial Property Use setting US Commercial Property
We think that 2020 will be the eleventh consecutive year of double-digit total returns for industrial property. However, we also think it will be the last in this cycle, as slower yield falls from 2021 and a lower rate of rental growth keep returns in …
26th February 2020
Economic indicators have improved recently, but remain at low levels, meaning that the recovery in GDP growth is likely to be gradual. As a result, occupier demand is likely to continue to slow, keeping upward pressure on vacancy rates and causing rental …
21st February 2020
Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage lending standards and a record low number of homes for …
20th February 2020
The worst commercial real estate busts have tended to follow a ramping-up in lending activity, driven by the availability of debt rising and its cost falling. However, regularly updated Fed lending data suggest that there is no real evidence of this …
14th February 2020
Rapid employment growth in the technology and information industries has been behind a surge in demand for office space in San Francisco. Even if this growth were to slow somewhat, we expect absorption to exceed new supply over the next three years, …
11th February 2020
Over the next two years we expect US property to produce total returns of over 7.5% p.a. This would be stronger than any of the last three years and, more importantly, would be a better outturn than we expect for US equities and far stronger than the …
6th February 2020
Having softened in each of the last four years, we expect US commercial property total returns to strengthen again in 2020, reaching close to 7%. Those returns will reflect a roughly 3% uplift in capital values, despite a slowdown in rental growth this …
3rd February 2020
We are launching our new subscription service on US commercial real estate by outlining six key calls that we believe will shape the sector’s story in the coming years. The macroeconomic environment of low, but steady economic growth, alongside a …
28th January 2020
NB. Please download the attached pdf for the full publication with charts. Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita …
3rd May 2018
