Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Increased demand for larger apartments to accommodate working from home is already evident in NYC, where the inventory of units with two or more bedrooms has seen a sharper decline compared to smaller units. With working from home set to stay even as …
14th May 2021
Mortgage rates have edged down since the end of March, but that didn’t prevent a fall in the share of households who see now as a good time to buy a home to a record low in April. (See Chart 1.) House price growth of 12% y/y, and record low inventory, …
12th May 2021
Easing credit conditions won’t stop home purchase demand from falling Despite a small fall in mortgage interest rates, home purchase and refinance demand edged back in April. The reopening of the economy and easing credit conditions will provide some …
5th May 2021
Stimulus cheques and a lack of opportunity to spend money pushed the saving rate to a record high last year. Some of that saving made its way into down payments, with the average first-time buyer putting down an extra 30% in November compared to a year …
4th May 2021
There were 1.14m vacant homes not being used for any purpose in the first quarter, enough to double the inventory of existing homes for sale. Record low interest rates and the prospect of further house price gains mean owners have been reluctant to sell. …
28th April 2021
House price growth to slow to 5% y/y by end-2021 House prices continued to climb in February, with Case-Shiller and the FHFA both reporting growth of around 12% y/y. But while annual growth rates are at record highs on the FHFA measure, month-on-month …
27th April 2021
New home sales surge to 15-year high Following weather-related disruption in February, new home sales jumped in March to close to a 15-year high. A gradual rise in mortgage interest rates this year will weigh on demand to some extent, but the key …
23rd April 2021
Home sales continue journey towards pre-COVID trend Tight inventory pushed existing home sales down to a seven-month low in March. Indeed, the number of homes for sale is at record lows and this will continue to constrain home sales this year. What’s …
22nd April 2021
Surging lumber prices have led to delays in housing starts and an increase in some new home prices. But, while we expect lumber prices to remain relatively high over the next couple of years, the impact on starts and house prices will not persist. Beyond …
21st April 2021
Overview – After a bumper second half of 2020, housing market activity will lose steam in 2021 as higher mortgage interest rates and record low inventory weigh on home sales. House price growth will also fall back, as recent strong gains in prices …
19th April 2021
Starts bounce back after winter storms Homebuilding recovered quickly from February’s adverse weather, with single-family starts rising to close to a 15-year high. If it were not for constraints on production, including soaring lumber prices, starts would …
16th April 2021
The easing of virus restrictions and return to offices for many white-collar workers will mean that apartment markets in cities such as NYC and Washington D.C. will outperform this year. But we think the longer-term outlook is most favourable in Sunbelt …
15th April 2021
Mortgage rates rose further in March, with the 30-year rate now up 50bps compared to the start of the year. Recent stability in the 10-year Treasury yield means mortgage rates are likely to move sideways over the next couple of weeks, but we expect they …
9th April 2021
Record low inventory and stretched affordability to weigh on home demand Home purchase mortgage applications edged out a small gain in March but, even as the economy reopens, we doubt that is a sign that home demand will see additional gains this year. …
7th April 2021
House prices make further strong gains House prices made further strong gains in January, although there are tentative signs that month-on-month growth is starting to ease. With mortgage rates now rising, and set to increase further over the year, that …
30th March 2021
Record low inventory, surging house prices and stretched affordability have pushed the share of households who think now is a good time to buy a home to the lowest since 2010. But, at the same time, the share who plan to buy a home in the next six months …
25th March 2021
Winter storms hit new home sales Severe weather, tight inventory and worsening affordability pushed new home sales down to 775,000 annualised in February. And with mortgage rates likely to rise to 4.0% by the end of the year, home sales face strong …
23rd March 2021
Home sales start to come back to earth The boom in housing market activity started to moderate in February, with existing home sales recording a substantial drop. Record low inventory will be constraining activity, as will worsening affordability. Looking …
22nd March 2021
We now expect mortgage interest rates will rise to 4.0% by the end of the year, and to 4.25% by end-2022. But housing demand will be supported by a reopening economy, the large fiscal stimulus, frustrated buyers still looking for homes and substantial …
19th March 2021
Winter storms and record high lumber prices delay housing starts Single-family starts fell for the second consecutive month in February, as winter storms and record high lumber prices disrupted construction. But as those constraints ease, housing starts …
17th March 2021
With fewer spending options during the lockdown, the share of cash-out refinances is much lower than usual given the recent surge in house prices. And, while the volume of cash extracted has reached a 13-year high, most borrowers look to be spending that …
12th March 2021
Rising mortgage interest rates are starting to bring housing demand down from its recent elevated level. At 3.26% in the first week of March, mortgage rates were at an eight-month high. Coupled with severe weather in the south, that lead to a steep …
11th March 2021
Greater availability, lower prices and proximity to NYC have supported demand for Boston apartments during the pandemic. That implies demand may edge back as the country reopens, and some workers return to NYC. Rental growth is therefore likely to …
5th March 2021
Higher mortgage rates and lean inventory hit housing demand The mortgage market came off the boil in February, with home purchase applications recording their largest month-on-month decline since the height of the pandemic last April. A rise in mortgage …
3rd March 2021
Record high lumber prices are leading to delays in housing starts, and as result the share of homes for sale that have not been started reached a record high in January. While that will constrain single-family starts in the short term, sales of homes that …
26th February 2021
New home sales rise, but slowdown on the horizon New home sales rose for the second consecutive month in January to 923,000 annualised. But rising mortgage interest rates and tight inventory point to a slowdown over 2021. Indeed, mortgage applications for …
24th February 2021
Rising mortgage rates to weigh on house prices The house price boom continued in December, with month-on-month gains exceeding 1.0% on the FHFA measure for the seventh consecutive month. However, rising mortgage interest rates will weigh on affordability, …
23rd February 2021
Home sales continue to surprise on the upside Existing home sales managed to eke out a small gain in January, even as inventory fell to new record lows. But the lack of supply means activity will fall back to earth later in 2021, reinforced by rising …
19th February 2021
Housing starts fall as construction constraints weigh heavy January’s 12.2% m/m decline in single-family housing starts reversed the solid gains seen in December. Record low inventory is supporting homebuilder confidence, and that points to a decent year …
18th February 2021
An elevated unemployment rate, alongside some relaxation in immigration restrictions, will help ease labour shortages in the residential sector this year. Admittedly, not all parts of the economy are finding jobs easy to fill, but homebuilders are …
17th February 2021
Mortgage rates rose to a 12-week high in the first week February, and a further rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.5% means they will increase to around 3.2% by the end of the year. Alongside surging house prices and record low inventory, that …
12th February 2021
As it is based on asking prices, the recently launched Common Haus Price Index (CHPI) could lead other house price indices by 1-2 months, which would make it a useful tool for forecasting short-term changes in house prices. While its track record is far …
8th February 2021
In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most real estate is clustered. We think it is premature to …
4th February 2021
An improvement in the share of in-person interviews in the fourth quarter HVS survey helped bring the homeownership rate back down from its recent implausible highs. And, with home sales set to slow this year, we expect it will stay close to 65.5% over …
Threat of higher interest rates drives up mortgage demand The threat of higher interest rates drove mortgage demand higher in January, with refinancing activity seeing a particularly large gain. A narrowing spread means we expect the upcoming rise in …
3rd February 2021
New home sales lose momentum The small gain in new home sales in December continues the run of falling or weak sales seen since August of last year. That moderation in sales is set to persist in 2021, as worsening affordability, the exhaustion of pent-up …
28th January 2021
We estimate a backlog of around 850,000 foreclosures will have built-up if the ban is extended until the end of September, similar to the peak seen during the financial crisis. However, not all those foreclosures will be processed in the final quarter of …
27th January 2021
House price growth surges to record high House price growth continued to surge in November, with both Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting strong gains. At 11% y/y, the rise in the FHFA index is the highest since records began in 1992. But the current boom in …
26th January 2021
Surprise rise in home sales Existing home sales recorded a marginal gain in December but are set to fall back over 2021. Mortgage rates will not decline any further and rising house prices have already reversed the boost to affordability they provided. …
22nd January 2021
With risk-free interest rates not set to drop any further, and home sales constrained by record low inventory, the cost of the prepayment option on MBS will have fallen. Alongside Fed purchases of MBS, that helps explain the recent narrowing in the spread …
21st January 2021
Permit gains point to a strong start of the year for homebuilders Single-family starts rebounded in December, recording their largest month-on-month gain since June. While production constraints will continue to weigh on starts, we are relatively upbeat …
House price growth surged to 8.4% y/y in October, as booming home sales have combined with record low inventory to boost values. But that rise in prices has already offset the improvement to affordability provided by record low mortgage rates. (See Chart …
15th January 2021
Compared to consensus, we are relatively downbeat on the outlook for home sales this year. Mortgage rates will stay close to record lows, but they will not fall further. Pent-up demand from last spring will soon be exhausted, inventory is at record lows …
7th January 2021
Home purchase demand starts to drop back Even as mortgage rates stayed close to record lows, applications for home purchase declined in each of the last three weeks of December. With interest rates not set to fall further and the boost to affordability …
6th January 2021
The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more fundamental economic decline in the world’s largest urban …
5th January 2021
House price boom continues, for now Record low mortgage rates, surging home sales and tight inventory pushed annual house price growth to a 6½-year high in October, but we doubt the boom in prices will last for long. The past gain in prices has already …
29th December 2020
Overview – The housing market boomed in the latter half of 2020, as record low mortgage rates, displacement due to COVID-19 and increased savings boosted home demand. But those drivers will ease in 2021 and, alongside worsening affordability and record …
23rd December 2020
New home sales constrained by tight inventory New home sales fell 11.0% m/m in November, driven by a lack of inventory and pent-up demand from earlier in the year coming to an end. But easing demand is yet to feed through to house price growth, which …
Sales fall as inventory constraints bite Existing home sales fell for the first time in five months in November, as record low inventory and the exhaustion of pent-up demand from the spring put a dampener on activity. Record low mortgage rates have …
22nd December 2020
Supply constraints weigh on housing starts Single-family starts rose for the seventh consecutive month in November, but at a slower pace. And with production constraints starting to weigh on homebuilder confidence, we think that gains will slow further …
17th December 2020
