Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The rebound in housing starts in March does little to hide the fact that homebuilding activity remains close to rock bottom. With both the demand and need for new homes still very low, housing starts aren't going to enjoy a more meaningful recovery for a …
19th April 2011
The combination of favourable valuations and exceptional affordability has made housing look like the bargain of a lifetime. But structural constraints on demand are preventing households from taking advantage. Add in the still poor supply picture, and …
18th April 2011
The further fall in house prices at the end of last year has made housing look more under-valued relative to income than ever before. (See Chart below.) This appears to be attracting cash buyers and investors back into the market. They have driven 70% of …
7th April 2011
Continued low mortgage rates and favourable housing valuations are still failing to stimulate mortgage demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in March still close to record lows. … Mortgage Applications …
6th April 2011
The housing market began 2011 in the same vein as it ended 2010, with prices heading south. Moreover, while the latest risk retention housing reform proposals are good for the long-term health of the market, they would surely drag out any recovery. … …
29th March 2011
The 16.9% m/m decline in new home sales to a record low of only 250,000 annualised in February, from 301,000 the month before, underlines just how bad conditions in the housing market still are. … New Home Sales …
23rd March 2011
The 9.6% m/m decline in existing home sales in February illustrates that, even if we allow for the possible impact of unseasonably severe weather last month, the housing market is still clearly years away from staging any meaningful recovery. … Existing …
21st March 2011
Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2 will be completed as planned. … Fed likely to complete …
15th March 2011
Mortgage applications continued to trend lower in February, underlining the point we've made before that the latest rebound in home sales is being driven almost exclusively by cash buyers and investors. … Mortgage Applic'ns (Feb.) & Negative Equity …
9th March 2011
7th March 2011
The fact that the recent rebound in existing home sales has been predominantly driven by cash buyers and investors places a question mark over the sustainability of that rebound. The concern is that there may be a limited pool of such buyers and that …
2nd March 2011
The outlook for new home sales will remain bleak as long as foreclosed homes can be snapped up at heavily discounted prices. Meanwhile, by excluding many foreclosed sales, the FHFA index may not be capturing the full downward pressure on prices. … New …
24th February 2011
The upward trend in existing home sales is set to remain slow and steady rather than speedy and spectacular. … Existing Home Sales …
23rd February 2011
House prices will decline by at least 5% this year. The real danger is that a vicious circle of falling prices and rising foreclosures drags prices down even further. … Another year of falling …
22nd February 2011
The further fall in the Case-Shiller measure of national house prices at the end of last year took prices to a new cycle low, meaning that a double-dip is now officially underway. Prices are likely to fall further this year too, perhaps by another 5%. … …
The Obama Administration's recent proposals to wind down the government-owned institutions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and create a market in which private businesses are the primary source of mortgage finance are laudable. But there are four key …
17th February 2011
Better labour market conditions led to a significant fall in the share of delinquent mortgages at the end of last year. Further falls in the unemployment rate this year are likely to push the delinquency rate even lower, but probably not by much. … …
The recent rise in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has done little to dent affordability. Even a doubling in rates would leave our long-term measure of affordability below that seen before the housing crash. That said, high affordability will still not …
14th February 2011
The renewed downward trend in house prices continued towards the end of last year, with prices on the 20-City Case-Shiller index falling for the fifth month in a row in November. (See Chart below.) Prices on the alternative FHFA index were stable. …
11th February 2011
The rebound in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has driven mortgage applications lower once again. With demand for mortgage borrowing still so weak, it is hard to see housing activity strengthening much this year. … Mortgage Applications …
9th February 2011
House prices have diverged from the levels that might be justified by income fundamentals in six periods over the last 35 years, but none of these episodes can be explained by the same set of factors. This is why we do not forecast house prices using an …
2nd February 2011
The declining homeownership rate and the rising vacancy rate support our view that the combination of weak housing demand and high supply will continue to undermine house prices this year. Conversely, rising demand and tight supply in the rental market …
31st January 2011
The tone of the Fed's latest policy statement suggests that neither the most recent pick up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials. Worried by the still elevated unemployment rate and low …
26th January 2011
The impressive increase in new home sales in December is mainly due to the rush to beat the deadline of a tax credit in California. Without that boost, new sales would have been broadly unchanged. Moreover, new sales in California will probably fall this …
The falls in house prices seen towards the end of last year are likely to continue throughout this year. We think that prices will fall by just over 5% in 2011, leaving them a little less than 5% below the previous cycle low. That will send more …
25th January 2011
The decent increase in existing home sales in December takes them marginally above the levels seen before sales were boosted and subsequently depressed by the homebuyer tax credit. But high unemployment, tight credit conditions and fears of more price …
20th January 2011
December's data on housing starts are a bit better than they look. Nonetheless, the combination of persistently weak demand and chronic excess supply means that homebuilding activity will remain painfully weak for the next few years. … Housing Starts …
19th January 2011
The rebound in 30-year mortgage rates from a record low of 4.2% to just under 5% has put a small dent in the already fragile outlook for the housing market. (See Chart below.) Admittedly, mortgage rates remain exceptionally low by historical standards and …
11th January 2011
The recent improvement in economic conditions has done little to support housing demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in December remaining close to historically depressed levels. With mortgage rates now rising, the prospect of a …
5th January 2011
The Fed was always going to leave the size of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) unchanged today as it is too soon to judge whether it has been a success or a failure. If we are right in expecting the unemployment rate to remain very high and …
15th December 2010
The housing market recovery appears to have stalled before it even really began. Home sales fell back in October and the renewed downward trend in prices appears to have gathered pace. This is all happening at a time when mortgage rates have remained …
1st December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bouncing along the bottom …
8th November 2010
The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers reveals a disturbing drop off in the demand for new loans and the renewed tightening of credit conditions for residential mortgages and other consumer loans. On this evidence, claims that quantitative easing …
The Fed's new programme of asset purchases is not going to pull the US economy out of its current malaise because, given the scale of the balance sheet problems affecting households and financial institutions, it is simply too modest. … Fed's QE2 is no …
3rd November 2010
A double-dip in both housing activity and prices is underway. Prices are likely to fall for the next 12 months, while activity will remain weak for at least three years. … Not out of the woods …
19th October 2010
House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See Chart below.) It is mildly encouraging that home sales …
13th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … QE2 still looks distant …
22nd September 2010
The floor has fallen out from underneath the housing market in the months since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. In July, total home sales fell by 26% m/m, to a level not seen in 17 years. Of course, this was largely due to purchases being …
8th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke offers no hint of further stimulus …
21st July 2010
The expiry of the homebuyer tax credit at the end of April has triggered a double-dip in the housing market, with new home sales falling particularly sharply in May. Of course, sales were always going to decline once the tax credit expired, as purchases …
13th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed on hold until 2012 …
23rd June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed on hold for some considerable time …
28th April 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed no nearer to first rate hike …
16th March 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke defends Fed's actions …
24th February 2010
The US government’s support for first-time buyers may not have boosted housing activity by as much as has been suggested. The good news is that this means more of the recovery is based on fundamental factors that should remain in place once the government …
4th February 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed holds steady …
27th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed offers no hint of a change in policy …
16th December 2009
The stronger than expected housing recovery will provide a welcome boost to consumption and employment. But such spill-over effects will not be large enough to prevent a prolonged period of sluggish consumer spending and labour market weakness. … Housing …
23rd November 2009
6th October 2009
The housing market appears to have turned a corner. Activity has levelled off and housing may now be significantly undervalued. Nonetheless, the large inventory overhang means that prices could still fall by another 5-10% this year. What’s more, if …
15th June 2009
