Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Operation Twist is a go, albeit with a small twist on the twist. The Fed's announcement today that it will act to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings, by buying $400bn of securities that mature in more than six years and selling an equal …
22nd September 2011
Given the recent sharp falls in equity prices and consumer confidence, there is a real risk that the 7.7% m/m rise in existing home sales in August will not be sustained. Without a significant surge in sales, sustained price gains just aren't possible. … …
The further fall in housing starts in August adds to other evidence, such as the recent drop in consumer confidence and fall in mortgage approvals, suggesting that demand for new homes remains close to rock bottom. This goes some way to explaining why …
21st September 2011
Any changes to the Administration's current program that would allow more households to refinance their mortgage at a lower rate would be welcome. But such moves won't provide a major boost to the economy or the housing market. Moreover, they don't …
16th September 2011
Even though mortgage rates have fallen to record lows and housing has become more undervalued relative to incomes than ever before, the number of home sales has continued to decline. More striking is that this is solely due to a weakening in demand from …
15th September 2011
The latest mortgage applications figures illustrate how ultra-loose monetary policy is failing to boost economic activity. Despite the fall in 30-year mortgage rates to within a whisker of a record low, mortgage applications for refinancing have risen …
8th September 2011
The FHFA's new "expanded-data" house price index is better than its other indices as it includes some purchases made with cash and non-conforming loans. However, as it is still a less comprehensive measure than both the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices, …
7th September 2011
We are wary of reading too much into CoreLogic's fairly optimistic house price report for July, which showed that seasonally adjusted prices fell by just 0.1% m/m, when prices have yet to respond to the recent weakening in demand. The simple truth is that …
1st September 2011
With the economy weakening again, confidence falling and the labour market recovery faltering the rise in Case-Shiller house prices in the second quarter probably does not mark the end of the housing downturn. Even if it did, a persistent lack of demand …
31st August 2011
The 0.7% m/m decline in new home sales in July built on the downward trend of the previous six months and highlights just how fragile the housing market remains five years after boom first turned to bust. … New Home Sales …
24th August 2011
The most worrying thing about the modest rise in the mortgage delinquency rate in the second quarter is that it was due to more homeowners falling behind on their mortgage payments for the first time. The weaker economy and rebound in the unemployment …
23rd August 2011
The 3.5% m/m fall in existing home sales in July shows that the housing market will not pull the US economy out of its current malaise. In fact, it appears that the recent economic slowdown has already put a dent in housing demand. … Existing Home Sales …
19th August 2011
The modest fall back in the number of housing starts in July highlights that the housing market will not be able to pull the US economy out of its current funk. In fact, the danger is that the recent weakening in the economic outlook leads to even less …
17th August 2011
The failure of home sales to rebound in June after they had been depressed by unusually severe weather may have been an early sign that the recent economic slowdown is restraining housing demand. This view is supported by the absence of any meaningful …
16th August 2011
The Fed's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for much longer than previously won't significantly boost the real economy. Admittedly, the chances of QE3 have risen. But the rebound in core inflation and the growing division at the Fed mean …
10th August 2011
While in the long-term foreigners will increasingly want a slice of the American housing dream, over the next five years a rise in demand from overseas buyers will not be large enough to bring the national housing market back to life. That said, housing …
5th August 2011
CoreLogic's measure of house prices shows that, after stripping out the normal seasonal uplift, prices fell back in June. With the number of mortgage applications having declined in July and the economy weakening once again, house prices are more likely …
4th August 2011
The poor economic climate, the double dip in house prices, the high number of foreclosures and tight credit conditions are all reasons why the homeownership rate will continue to fall. The flipside will be a further surge in demand for rented …
30th July 2011
May's Case-Shiller house price index suggests that the five-year-long decline in house prices may be more or less over. But with June's new home sales data confirming that housing demand remains depressed, a rapid rebound in prices is not on the cards. … …
27th July 2011
The further fall in the number of existing home sales in June, to 4.77m from 4.81m in May, suggests that the recent deterioration in economic conditions has already hit the housing market. … Existing Home Sales …
21st July 2011
The 14.6% m/m leap in housing starts in June, to a five-month high of 629,000 from 549,000 in May, is not the start of a significant and sustained surge in homebuilding. Instead, it reflects a rebound in activity after the unusually severe tornados and …
20th July 2011
The recent rises in house prices are nothing more than the normal seasonal uplift triggered by the better weather and the end of the school year. After stripping out such seasonal effects, prices on both the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices are still …
15th July 2011
The expected downward revisions to the number of existing homes sales will not be the disaster widely assumed. Because the house price data will be unchanged, it could even be considered good news as it means any given fall in housing demand translates …
12th July 2011
It seems very unlikely that the recent easing in the rate at which house prices are falling can develop into sustained and significant price gains at a time when mortgage demand is still in the gutter. … Mortgage Applications …
7th July 2011
The scheduled reduction in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of October is unlikely to trigger a further precipitous fall in house prices as some have suggested. Nevertheless, it certainly won't help the market at a time when millions of …
6th July 2011
CoreLogic's house price data for May provide further evidence that the five-year long decline in prices may be drawing to a close. We remain concerned that prices may yet slip a little further. Either way, the chronic lack of demand and still high excess …
1st July 2011
April's Case-Shiller house price data support other evidence indicating that the rate at which prices are falling has eased. On some measures, prices are actually rising. We still believe that prices will edge lower throughout this year before finding a …
29th June 2011
A continuation of tight credit conditions for first-time buyers and a foreclosure pipeline full of homes bought with sub-prime loans will mean that house prices at the low end of the market will continue to fall at a faster rate than prices at either the …
28th June 2011
The modest 2.1% m/m decline in new home sales in May shows that homebuilders are still struggling to sell new builds at a time when housing demand remains in the doldrums and there is fierce competition from foreclosed homes. … New Home Sales …
24th June 2011
The statement issued today after the end of the two-day FOMC meeting offered no hint that the recent signs of a renewed economic slowdown might tempt the Fed to launch another round of large-scale asset purchases. As Chairman Ben Bernanke explained in his …
23rd June 2011
Most of the 3.8% m/m fall in existing home sales in May, to a six-month low of 4.8m from 5.0m in April, was probably due to the unusually severe weather. Nevertheless, the data are still overestimating the level of sales by up to 20% and a chronic lack of …
22nd June 2011
We expect house prices to fall a further 3% this year, resulting in a 5% decline in the year as a whole. Although prices may find a floor some time next year, a chronic lack of demand will probably mean they won't rise consistently until 2014. … Prices …
21st June 2011
As most of the sharp fall in housing starts in April was due to the tornados that battered the south of the nation last month, homebuilding activity will probably bounce back in May. That said, at a time when construction costs are rising and selling …
17th June 2011
The sharp fall in house prices in the first quarter provided further confirmation that this housing crash has been larger and faster than the one during the Great Depression. On the Case-Shiller index, the 1.9% q/q fall in the first quarter meant that …
15th June 2011
For anyone bamboozled by the abundance of house price indices, which can sometimes provide starkly different messages, we consider the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices to be the most useful and reliable. As it stands now, most of the evidence suggests …
14th June 2011
The fall in 30-year mortgage rates to a six-month low of 4.5% has not boosted mortgage applications for home purchase as more lenders are asking for a higher down payment at a time when more households are unable to afford it. … Mortgage Applications …
8th June 2011
The further fall in house prices in the first quarter means that on the Case-Shiller index prices have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression. On that occasion, the peak in prices was not regained until 19 years after they first …
31st May 2011
The housing downturn has gone from bad to worse, with the FHFA index showing that prices in the first quarter fell at a faster rate than at any time since the height of the financial crisis in late 2008. This time prices are not being driven down by a …
25th May 2011
The second consecutive strong rise in new home sales in April may even underestimate the recent rebound since the data exclude condo sales, which are probably performing better than sales of new single-family homes. Nonetheless, total new home sales are …
24th May 2011
Despite the modest fall in the share of mortgages in foreclosure in the first quarter, over four million homeowners are still in serious danger of losing their home. Moreover, it is worrying that nearly two years after the recession ended, the share of …
19th May 2011
17th May 2011
Over the next five years the rental market will be the best performing part of the residential housing market, with the multi-family sector doing particularly well. A sustained rise in rents is clearly not good for tenants, who are still feeling the ill …
16th May 2011
The latest evidence suggests that prices have started to fall at a faster pace once again. After having dropped by 1.0% m/m in both December and January, prices on the seasonally adjusted FHFA index fell by 1.6% m/m in February. Admittedly, the …
11th May 2011
Recent news has highlighted the severity of the renewed downturn in prices of single-family homes. Although condominiums will not escape altogether, over the next year or so condo prices are likely to fall by less than prices of single-family homes. … …
9th May 2011
Despite the latest fall back in mortgage rates, appetite for mortgage borrowing is still stuck in a rut. This supports our view that the cost of borrowing is not the problem. Instead, a number of long-term structural factors are constraining mortgage …
4th May 2011
In his first post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the impression that the Fed is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. … Fed in no hurry to tighten …
27th April 2011
The further decline in the homeownership rate in the first quarter provides yet more evidence that Americans are now less able and less willing to buy a home. The flipside is that the resulting increase in the demand for rental accommodation will boost …
House prices have started to drop at a faster pace and on some indices are now falling at rates not seen since the financial crisis. In contrast to most forecasters, we always thought that prices would fall throughout this year, by at least 5%. That …
26th April 2011
We are hopeful that the increase in new home sales in March marks the end of the downward trend that had taken sales to a record low. But with existing homes being sold at much more competitive prices, the demand for newly built properties will recover …
25th April 2011
March's existing home sales data provide more evidence that the economic recovery has bypassed the housing market. What's worse is that these figures may be overestimating the level of sales by up to 20%. Once revisions have been made in the summer, …
20th April 2011
