Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The recent strong upwards momentum in house prices may not be sustained for much longer. Nevertheless, 2012 should mark not only the end of the US house price downturn, but the first year since 2006 in which prices rise. … Case-Shiller House Prices …
26th June 2012
Despite the unusually high price of new homes relative to their pre-owned equivalents, new home sales rose strongly in May. The implication appears to be that Americans are becoming more willing to splash out on the extra cost of a new home. … New Home …
25th June 2012
The slight fall in existing home sales in May suggests that, with economic activity indicators weakening, the recovery in housing market demand has lost a little bit of momentum. Nevertheless, if we are right that the economy will continue growing at or …
21st June 2012
In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the accompanying statement again warned that "strains in …
20th June 2012
Driven by strong investor demand, the modest recovery in housing market activity will not only continue into the second half of 2012 and beyond, it will spread to encompass house prices, which will rise this year. … House prices will rise this …
The 4.8% m/m fall in housing starts in May could be an early sign that the recent slowdown in the wider economy has taken some of the wind out of the sails of the improvement in housing market activity. Nevertheless, the latest drop in starts is perhaps …
19th June 2012
The improvement in housing market activity has not only put a floor under house prices, but, in recent months, has driven them higher. With the big caveat that much depends on how severe the effects from the euro-zone crisis on the US economy eventually …
14th June 2012
The weaker tone of the economic and labour market data has yet to be reflected in the housing numbers. Home sales rose by 3.4% m/m in April and are 10% higher than a year ago. The fact that improving housing market activity has been driven by cash-buyers …
8th June 2012
The small fall in mortgage applications for home purchase suggests that, despite record low mortgage rates, the renewed weakness in the labour market is starting to weigh on housing demand. … Mortgage Applications …
6th June 2012
The modest improvement in housing demand combined with recent increases in homebuilder confidence are reasons to think that the fall in average new home floor space should be drawing to an end. But the increase in the share of (typically smaller) housing …
31st May 2012
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller national house price index reported its strongest quarterly gain for two-and-a-half years. And with the economic recovery now on firmer ground, we see no reason to alter our view that US house prices have now …
29th May 2012
April’s 3.3% m/m rise in new home sales adds to the impression that homebuilders are starting to feel some of the benefits of improving housing market activity. Moreover, the rising proportion of new homes which are selling earlier in the construction …
23rd May 2012
The rise in existing home sales in April suggests that the modest recovery in housing market activity is back on track. The improvement is being driven almost entirely by cash buyers and investors, which means that existing home sales can continue rising …
22nd May 2012
The sheer extent of undervaluation in the housing market, combined with the prospect of a sustained if modest economic and labour market improvement, should ensure that the current, gradual housing recovery continues under its own steam. … The housing …
21st May 2012
Differences in foreclosure procedures will be one determinant of when State-level housing markets improve. While the national housing market is in the early stages of a recovery, many of the judicial foreclosure States which are struggling to clear their …
18th May 2012
The good news is that the number of homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgage continued to fall in the first quarter. But that didn’t change the big picture that the large overhang of homeowners who are seriously delinquent or already in foreclosure …
16th May 2012
The 2.6% m/m rise in housing starts in April, alongside the big upward revisions to earlier data, supports our view that housing is in recovery mode. Driven in particular by the multi-family sector, we expect housing starts to rise further later this …
March’s further fall in home sales is a potentially worrying sign that the improvement in housing market activity is already petering out. But we are encouraged by the fact that pending home sales are still increasing strongly. Admittedly, pending home …
9th May 2012
House prices rose in March and based on leading indicators, the short-term trend could strengthen further in the coming months. Over the year as a whole, however, house prices are more likely to stabilise than to post strong gains. … CoreLogic House …
8th May 2012
The further rise in mortgage applications for home purchase is an encouraging sign that mortgage-dependent buyers are beginning to contribute to the improvement in home sales. But with credit conditions still very tight, for now cash-buyers and investors …
2nd May 2012
Supply conditions in the rental sector are tightening as the proportion of households renting reached a 15 year high in Q1. We think that the rental rate may rise slightly further yet, with the necessary flipside being that fewer households will own their …
30th April 2012
The short histories of US house price expectations and asking price data mean that their ability to give an early steer on house price movements is relatively untested. Nevertheless, the fact that both have risen noticeably in recent months is, at the …
26th April 2012
The statement issued today after the two-day FOMC meeting indicates that the majority of Fed officials are content to wait and see how the US recovery develops. In particular, the statement reaffirmed the FOMC's conditional commitment to leave the fed …
25th April 2012
The small rise in the Case-Shiller index in February supports our view that house prices are either very close to, or already through, their trough. But with new home sales still very subdued in March, it doesn’t look like a rapid rebound is on the cards. …
24th April 2012
March’s decline in existing home sales probably reflects the normal month by month volatility rather than renewed underlying weakness. The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the housing market, coupled with a gradual improvement in the …
19th April 2012
The UK has now experienced about four years of below-average productivity growth. We remain sceptical that this means that productivity growth has been permanently damaged. So we still think that a significant rebound is likely at some point. But in the …
17th April 2012
The lack of a significant rise in lumber prices does not suggest that the nascent improvement in housing starts will soon fizzle out. The volume of lumber being transported by railroad has a much stronger relationship with homebuilding and it’s consistent …
13th April 2012
The $20,000 increase in the average loan size that mortgage applicants are seeking from lenders over the past three months may be an early sign that buyer confidence is improving. This should provide further support to home sales. Taken together with the …
11th April 2012
There’s no doubt that mortgage lending standards remain tight. But there are some tentative signs that banks might be becoming a bit more willing to lend. This is a crucial development that will support the budding housing market recovery. … Are …
5th April 2012
Coming hot on the heels of the slightly more encouraging mortgage applications numbers released this morning, the small rise in the CoreLogic measure of house prices in February is another sign that the housing market is starting to pull itself out of the …
4th April 2012
It’s too early to conclude that March’s increase in mortgage applications for home purchase is the start of an upward trend. But the sharp rise in average loan size certainly seems consistent with an increasing appetite for mortgage credit. … Mortgage …
Principal reductions on mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would herald a policy initiative that directly addresses one of the biggest problems facing the housing market. It won’t solve the foreclosure problem in one fell swoop, but it certainly …
30th March 2012
The stabilisation in Case-Shiller house prices in January adds to other evidence that the housing market is on the mend. We expect that 2012 will go down in history as the year that the most severe house price crash on record ended. … Case-Shiller House …
27th March 2012
The further fall in new home sales in February was probably driven by the unwinding of the boost to sales activity from the recent unseasonably warm weather. We expect continued employment growth and a slight easing in credit conditions to re-establish a …
23rd March 2012
The 0.9% m/m fall in existing home sales in February suggests that the boost from the good weather has started to fade. But strong demand from investors and a growing willingness of banks to lend means that sales will edge higher throughout the year. … …
21st March 2012
The slight fall in housing starts in February leaves the recent upward trend broadly intact. Housing starts should rise further later this year on the back of continued employment growth and an improvement in housing demand. … Housing Starts …
20th March 2012
There are two reasons why a rise in mortgage rates won’t threaten the housing recovery. First, mortgage rates can rise only so far when tighter monetary policy is still years away. Second, even if rates were to rise back towards more normal levels, …
19th March 2012
Concerns that a housing market recovery is not possible when prices are falling misses the crucial point that prices lag changes in demand and supply by up to six months. Make no mistake; a housing recovery is well underway. The only question is how …
15th March 2012
The latest data brought tentative signs that the stabilisation in house prices that we have been expecting may now be happening. In January, our seasonally adjusted measure of the CoreLogic index rose by 0.9% m/m. Admittedly, an earlier rise in April 2011 …
14th March 2012
The statement released after today's FOMC meeting included a slightly more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, but the Fed can hardly be accused of acting as a cheerleader for the recovery. Nevertheless, we suspect that the improvement evident in …
13th March 2012
We’ve been expecting house prices to stop falling soon and January’s CoreLogic index provided the first tentative sign that this is happening. But the continued weakness of mortgage applications highlights that there is little chance of significant and …
7th March 2012
Lingering constraints on demand and the overhang of foreclosures mean that the healing of the housing market will be a long and gradual process, but it does at least appear to be underway. Home sales and homebuilding will continue to edge higher, while …
6th March 2012
Although the rate at which house prices are falling accelerated at the end of last year, it may only be a few more months before the decline seen over the last five years comes to an end. We expect prices will be broadly unchanged this year and next. … …
28th February 2012
The Administration’s housing policies are still not adequately addressing the fact that housing supply is too high and that demand is too low. The new details of the plan to sell REOs to investors to rent out suggest the scheme might not be as effective …
The new homes market is finally benefitting from the recent improvement in housing demand. But with new homes only available at an extremely high premium relative to existing homes, the recovery in new sales will be more muted than for existing sales. … …
24th February 2012
The 4.3% m/m rise in existing home sales in January is not quite as encouraging as it first appears given that it comes at the expense of a 5.0% downward revision to the previous month’s figures. The upshot is that the number of sales in January was …
22nd February 2012
The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the fourth quarter is another positive development for the housing market, but the foreclosure pipeline remains full to bursting. If the robo-signing settlement revives the foreclosure machine and results in more …
16th February 2012
January’s housing starts data support our view that homebuilders are shaking off the shackles of the last five years and are beginning to contribute to GDP growth. That said, the housing sector is currently not big enough to set the economy alight. … …
The latest rise in the NAHB homebuilder activity index suggests that housing starts began the year on the front foot. We think that growing investment demand will prompt homebuilders to increase significantly construction of multi-family units in 2012. …
15th February 2012
The rise in home sales in each of the three months to December is the clearest sign yet that a modest housing market recovery is underway. The fact that mortgage approvals are still subdued, however, is a bit of a puzzle, especially when jobs growth is …
9th February 2012
