Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The big rise in starts in March should help to calm the nerves of those worrying that the homebuilding recovery is running out of steam. Starts will fall back next month and there are challenges further ahead, but ground should be broken on plenty more …
16th April 2013
We place significant emphasis on valuations in our analysis of residential property markets. So we cannot take issue with those who have recently pointed out that house price gains which are twice the pace of income or rental growth are not sustainable in …
12th April 2013
The inventory of new homes for sale has been rising for six months now, and in February the supply of existing homes for sale posted its first meaningful increase in two years. Admittedly, the 3.7% m/m rise, to 2.02m homes, could quickly be reversed. But …
10th April 2013
House prices rose in February, and based on short-term leading indicators they are set to post another gain in March. This supports our view that, during 2013 as a whole, prices will increase by around 8%. … CoreLogic House Prices (Feb. …
3rd April 2013
While the refinancing boom is coming off the boil, we’re optimistic that mortgage applications for home purchase are in the early stages of a sustainable comeback. … Mortgage Applications (Mar. …
House prices are rising at a quicker pace than rents, which is weighing on rental yields. But the reduction in yields is currently very gradual, while the total return from housing remains attractive. The upshot is that, taking the country as a whole, …
28th March 2013
House prices posted another solid gain at the start of 2013, with the geographical footprint of the recovery taking in yet more areas. … Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales …
26th March 2013
The increase in the number of existing home sales in February is more evidence that the housing recovery is continuing unabated. But the real news in this morning’s NAR numbers is the rise in the inventory of existing homes for sale. This may just be the …
21st March 2013
The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and 2015. Nevertheless, the majority of participants still …
20th March 2013
Homebuilding volumes increased in February and, despite the homebuilder recovery coming up against a few snags, there’s good reason to think that the rebound in construction activity has much further to run. … Housing Starts …
19th March 2013
For the first time in four years households are withdrawing more cash from their homes than they are putting into them. Rather than being a temporary blip, we think that this marks the start of a sustained period of equity extraction. … Return of housing …
18th March 2013
Capacity constraints in lenders’ mortgage departments are one of the few remaining bottlenecks in the housing recovery and one of the factors contributing to the marginal role being played by mortgage-dependent buyers. Yet there may be reason for muted …
14th March 2013
At 2.07m, the inventory of homes for sale fell to its lowest level since 1994 in January, and is the sixth lowest level ever recorded in the 30-year history of the data. With home sales now at a normal level relative to the size of the population, this …
12th March 2013
Rebounding household formation and continued investor interest will help housing demand rise further this year. And while supply conditions will stop tightening, they will remain very tight. The upshot is that we have revised up our house price forecast …
7th March 2013
The increase in mortgage interest rates in February weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase and took some heat out of the refinancing boom. But rates are still very low and will continue to support the housing recovery for a while yet. … …
6th March 2013
House prices rose strongly at the start of 2013 and are likely to perform well across the year as a whole. This is set to be another tear-away year for the housing recovery. … CoreLogic House Prices (Jan. …
5th March 2013
House prices ended 2012 on a high note and new home sales got off to a very strong start in 2013. Put simply, the housing recovery continues to accelerate. … Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales …
26th February 2013
Rising house prices, more home sales, and a slight loosening in credit conditions should see housing equity withdrawal turn positive in 2013 or soon after. Nevertheless, the amount of equity extracted from the housing sector will remain low relative to …
25th February 2013
Together, the fall in foreclosure starts and the foreclosure inventory and the rise in the number of non-distressed home sales are encouraging signs of a housing market returning to health. … Mortgage Delinquencies & Existing Sales …
21st February 2013
January’s large drop in housing starts isn’t as bad as the headline numbers suggest. And with housing starts still significantly below normal levels, there is plenty of scope for strong gains later this year. … Housing Starts (Jan. …
20th February 2013
Concerns have been raised that some States are seeing unsustainable, investor-fuelled house price increases. However, we think that in most of these markets, the fundamentals are supportive of a sustained housing recovery, not just a temporary rebound. …
15th February 2013
Housing starts have risen by 37% over the past year, but new home sales have only increased by 9%. Rather than being a sign that speculative overbuilding has returned however, this gap reflects the fact that the starts numbers are picking up the strength …
11th February 2013
Mortgage applications for home purchase are still low by past standards, but at least they have been rising for five months now. That’s an encouraging sign that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting to play more of a role in the housing recovery. … …
6th February 2013
The US housing recovery showed no signs of slowing in the final stages of 2012. And the early signs are that these gains will be extended throughout 2013 as the economy continues its recovery. … CoreLogic House Prices (Dec. …
5th February 2013
All of the major house prices indices posted gains in November, which means that prices have risen by between 5.6% and 7.4% over the past year. Moreover, realtors and consumers have been revising up the gains they expect to see over the coming year. If …
4th February 2013
We’re expecting US house prices to rise by around 5% this year, but a closer look at the regional picture suggests that the gains will be most pronounced in the West. … West to lead house price growth in …
31st January 2013
The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. … Fed swaps one hawk for …
The fact that the housing recovery is being driven principally by investor demand means that the slight decline in the homeownership rate in the fourth quarter is unlikely to be the last. … Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller …
29th January 2013
House prices and residential sales activity in New York City look set to underperform the wider US housing market over the next few years. Valuations in NYC are less favourable than elsewhere, the factors supporting recent strong levels of housing demand …
28th January 2013
It’s a disappointment that the level of new home sales in December was no higher than it was seven months earlier in May. But December’s new home sales report isn’t as bad as it first appears. … New Home Sales (Dec. …
25th January 2013
The number of existing home sales fell in December, but the underlying trend in sales remains upwards. Moreover, supply conditions are still very tight. … Existing Home Sales (Dec. …
22nd January 2013
December’s surge in housing starts tops off an encouraging year for homebuilders. Given how far below normal levels starts remain even now, we expect further strong gains during 2013. … Housing Starts (Dec. …
17th January 2013
The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s ability-to-repay rule, and within that its definition of a qualified mortgage, will not hamper the housing recovery. Mortgage-dependent buyers aren’t playing much of a role in the recovery for now anyway. But when …
16th January 2013
House prices rose again in November, both before and after applying seasonal adjustment. Consistent price increases throughout 2012 have started the process of lifting households out of negative equity, which will support home sales and refinancing …
15th January 2013
The 11th hour deal to avert the fiscal cliff included a one-year extension of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act. The Act, which frees homeowners from paying tax on forgiven mortgage principal, has become an important part of the housing recovery by helping to …
10th January 2013
The rise in home purchase mortgage applications in December took the run of increases to four months. Admittedly, they remain low by past standards. But at least these data add to the growing sense that a nascent recovery in the number of active …
2nd January 2013
Another strong gain took existing home sales above the five million mark, and to a three-year high, in November. Moreover, supply conditions tightened further and are consistent with house prices rising strongly in the early part of 2013. … Existing …
20th December 2012
The fall in housing starts in November should prove to be no more than a temporary set-back. The forward-looking indicators point to a decent rise in starts in December, and a continued underlying improvement during 2013. … Housing Starts (Nov. …
19th December 2012
Rebounding household formation will be a tailwind for the housing recovery. But with the overwhelming majority of newly forming households over the next few years set to rent rather than own their home, the rental sector will be the disproportionate …
13th December 2012
The typical guarantee fee charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lenders rose to a high of 46 basis points in early December. Mortgage borrowers will soon see fees rise as a result, but this will not seriously dent the favourable level of housing …
11th December 2012
The housing recovery is building a real head of steam. We anticipate further strong gains in home sales and housing starts in 2013. At the national level, price gains are likely to match those seen this year. … Shifting up the …
6th December 2012
Mortgage applications for home purchase ticked up slightly in November and are now rising year-on-year. While the bigger picture is still that demand for purchase mortgages remains very subdued, this offers some hope that mortgage-dependent buyers will …
5th December 2012
Adjusting for the normal seasonal dip in house prices seen at this time of year, prices rose again in October. Therefore, the underlying trend in the CoreLogic measure of house prices is strongly upwards. … CoreLogic House Prices (Oct. …
4th December 2012
The housing recovery faces an array of headwinds, but we continue to think that it is sustainable. Although the recovery remains narrowly dependent on cash buyers and investors, outside of a few hotspots, there is little sign that investor appetite is …
29th November 2012
The small fall in new home sales in October, and the downward revision to September’s figures, mean that the recovery in new home sales is looking a little weaker than we were previously led to believe. Nevertheless, we expect activity in the new homes …
28th November 2012
The third successive quarterly rise in national house prices is additional evidence that housing is experiencing a sustainable upturn. The fundamentals of very favourable housing valuations and affordability argue for further price gains in 2013. … …
27th November 2012
The further rise in housing starts in October confirms that the previous month’s very strong gain was not an unsustainable surge. With housing starts rising by 41.9% over the past year, it’s clear that the homebuilding recovery is gathering a real head of …
20th November 2012
The improvement in existing home sales, which continued in October, is being driven by the very favourable level of housing valuations and affordability. The combination of rising demand and tight supply means that house price gains look set to continue. …
19th November 2012
The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the third quarter is another encouraging sign that the housing market is improving. In particular, it means that the shadow inventory of homes in imminent danger of coming onto the market is at a four year low. … …
15th November 2012
Conflicting signals make it hard to draw firm conclusions, but the balance of evidence increasingly suggests that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting to make more of a contribution to the housing recovery. … Is mortgage demand picking …
14th November 2012
