Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule is a welcome simplification and relaxation of earlier proposals which, if enacted, will help to loosen mortgage credit conditions. But the inclusion of an alternative, stricter proposal means that …
29th August 2013
Average US house prices rose at double-digit levels once again in the second quarter. But adjusting for normal seasonal patterns, all three of the main Case-Shiller indices suggest that the rate of house price gains may be starting to peak. … …
27th August 2013
The sharp drop in new home sales in July, and the downward revision to June’s figure, suggest that the spike in mortgage interest rates is taking more of a toll on housing market activity than we had previously thought. … New Home Sales …
23rd August 2013
The increase in existing home sales in July suggests that the rise in mortgage rates prompted some buyers to rush through with a home sale before rates became higher still. This stimulatory effect will only be temporary. … Existing Home Sales (Jul. …
21st August 2013
The rapid increase in US house prices over the past year, and the sharp run up in mortgage interest rates over the past few months, have brought issues of housing valuation and affordability into sharper focus. Certain valuation and affordability metrics …
20th August 2013
The increase in housing starts in July was driven by the multi-family sector, with single-family starts posting a small decline. The recovery in multi-family starts has been the driving force behind the homebuilding rebound for the past 18 months now. … …
16th August 2013
Although the Fed may opt for the simplicity of running down purchases of both Treasuries and MBS simultaneously, we think that it makes sense to leave tapering of MBS purchases for last. That said, the incremental benefits for the housing market of such a …
15th August 2013
The fall in mortgage delinquencies, fewer foreclosure starts and the lower foreclosure inventory rate in Q2 are all encouraging signs that the fundamentals of the housing market are mending. Although these figures are yet to reflect the recent increase in …
9th August 2013
Mortgage applications for home purchase are showing the strain from higher mortgage interest rates, falling by 5.6% m/m in July. It’s too early to see the effect of higher rates on the existing home sales numbers, but the new home sales figures are …
8th August 2013
Higher mortgage interest rates saw mortgage applications for home purchase post their largest month-on-month fall in almost two years in July. But the most up-to-date weekly figures recorded a small gain in applications last week. … Mortgage …
7th August 2013
Although it is too soon to be sure, CoreLogic house price index for June brought some tentative evidence that the moderation in the pace of house price gains that we are anticipating in the second half of this year may be getting underway. … CoreLogic …
6th August 2013
The decline in the share of distressed sales is having an upward influence on house prices. But we aren’t convinced by claims that the house price indices’ failure to adjust for this effect is somehow obscuring the “true” rate of house price appreciation. …
2nd August 2013
There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. … Fed likely to begin QE taper in …
31st July 2013
Three years after home sales started rising, and a year and a half since house prices turned up, the homeownership rate remains at an 18-year low. … Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller …
30th July 2013
The strong rise in new home sales in June means that the housing market has come through its first major test of higher mortgage rates unscathed. … New Home Sales (Jun …
24th July 2013
The decline in sales and the rise in inventories means that supply conditions in the existing homes market are now the loosest they have been this year. That looks consistent with a slowdown in the pace of house price gains over the coming months. … …
22nd July 2013
Helped by attractive jumbo mortgage rates and interest from foreign buyers, house price growth in New York City is well above the national average rate. But we stand by our call that price growth in NYC cannot outperform for much longer. … New York City …
18th July 2013
Housing starts extended their recent rollercoaster ride in June, falling by 9.9% m/m. This reflects a characteristically volatile multi-family sector rather than renewed weakness, and we expect homebuilding volumes to rise further later this year. … …
17th July 2013
The 25% fall in lumber prices in the past two months is helping to relieve cost pressures on homebuilders. Combined with surging homebuilder confidence, it looks like housing starts are set to rise considerably further. … Easing cost pressures a further …
11th July 2013
The benchmark 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 3.6% two months ago to 4.7% last week. The effect on remortgaging volumes has been considerable – applications for remortgaging have halved in the space of two months. But applications for home purchase …
10th July 2013
A couple of years ago, a lot was being made of the potential for foreign buyers to come to the rescue of the housing market. We were dubious of these claims at the time, and a recent NAR survey seems to have proven our doubts well-founded. … Foreign …
8th July 2013
Mortgage applications for refinancing tumbled in the face of higher mortgage interest rates in June. But applications for home purchase, which are a better indicator of underlying housing demand, were more-or-less unchanged over the month as a whole. … …
3rd July 2013
There were few signs of a slowdown in house price gains in the most recent CoreLogic data. But with supply now on the rise, double-digit price gains may not be the norm for too much longer. … CoreLogic House Prices (May …
2nd July 2013
In light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy, we have revised our 10-year Treasury yield forecasts higher. Accordingly, recent gains in 30-year mortgage rates are unlikely to be unwound and could well be extended. … Higher mortgage rates …
26th June 2013
The Case-Shiller house price index posted one of its largest month-on-month rises so far in the recovery in April, and new home sales registered a solid increase in May. But while sales activity can continue rising at double-digit rates, the increase in …
25th June 2013
We expect the pace of house price gains to slow later this year and decelerate further in 2014. This will not signal the end of the US housing recovery, but a new phase in which house price growth is more closely aligned to earnings. … The pace of house …
24th June 2013
The number of existing home sales broke decisively above the five million mark in May, while the supply of existing homes for sale continued to creep upwards. … Existing Home Sales (May …
20th June 2013
In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation picking up and thereby support the case for continued loose …
19th June 2013
The rise in housing starts in May was driven by a surge in multi-family starts and went some way to reversing April’s big drop. Despite some headwinds, starts are on track to increase further over the next few years. … Housing Starts (May …
18th June 2013
The rise in mortgage interest rates has the potential to generate a hiatus in housing sales and starts over the summer. At the margins, the rise also adds to the case for expecting the housing recovery to slow later this year. But mortgage rates are still …
13th June 2013
The latest readings from the CoreLogic and Case-Shiller house price indices show that prices have posted double-digit gains over the past year. But not all the past month’s housing news was so buoyant. Sales of both new and existing homes rose but the …
12th June 2013
The stronger-than-expected start to the year means that the risks to our house price forecasts have shifted to the upside. However, we think it is more likely than not that the pace of house price growth will ease in the second half of this year. So for …
7th June 2013
For all the talk of a renewed US housing bubble, today’s mortgage applications data are a reminder that the recovery remains highly dependent on loose monetary policy. … Mortgage Applications …
5th June 2013
House price gains of 12% per annum are clearly not sustainable. But in the short-term, news that the housing sector shows few signs of slowing will surely be something of a relief, following yesterday’s disappointing ISM data. … CoreLogic House Prices …
4th June 2013
The return of double-digit rates of house price inflation has grabbed most of the headlines in recent days. But equally significant are signs that sellers are returning to the market in force. We suspect that this trend is likely to be sustained. And a …
30th May 2013
In the first quarter, the annual rate of house price growth moved back into double-digit territory on each of the three main Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. These were the first double-digit readings since the final stages of the previous home price …
28th May 2013
Another rise in new home sales in March means that February’s unexpected dip has now been almost fully reversed. And with sales up by 29% over the past year, nearly double the 15% growth seen in the year to October, there are few signs that the US housing …
23rd May 2013
The underlying recovery in existing home sales continued in April. But the real news in today’s NAR release was the drop in distressed sales and the gain in the inventory of homes for sale. … Existing Home Sales (Apr. …
22nd May 2013
A dip in housing starts in April had been widely expected. Although the drop was much larger than the consensus forecast, other forward-looking indicators strongly suggest that April’s slump will be short-lived. … Housing Starts …
16th May 2013
Mortgage-dependent buyers have been unable to play the sort of role in this housing recovery that they have in previous cycles because mortgage credit conditions have remained tighter for longer. But there are signs that conditions are beginning to …
14th May 2013
The rise in mortgage delinquencies in Q1 is a reminder that it’s not all plain sailing for the housing recovery. But the gradual improvement in the labour market suggests that that the delinquency rate will resume its downward trend soon. … Mortgage …
9th May 2013
Behind the small decline in overall home sales in March were several pieces of good news. Sales of new homes rose, an increasing share of total home sales took place under non-distressed conditions, and mortgage demand improved. Finally, the increase in …
Mortgage applications for home purchase have risen in seven of the past eight months, including in the most recent data relating to April. Taken alongside the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey, there’s mounting evidence that mortgage-dependent …
8th May 2013
The further rise in house prices in March may prompt further concerns that prices are entering bubble territory. But a closer look suggests that it would take several more years of prices increasing at their current pace before the national market …
7th May 2013
Tight credit conditions and the backlog of foreclosures still to be worked through mean that the homeownership rate will slide lower over the next year or so. But with owner-occupation still the tenure of choice for the vast majority of Americans, expect …
2nd May 2013
The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could, in the future, be increased or reduced. We still …
1st May 2013
Some 14 months after the trough in house prices, the homeownership rate is still declining. In other words, although there are some signs that conventional, mortgage-dependent buyers are playing more of a role in the housing recovery, investors remain the …
30th April 2013
After the weaker than expected existing home sales figures, the increase in new home sales in March comes as a bit of a relief. The rise was only slight, but the indications are that activity will post further gains later this year. … New Home Sales …
23rd April 2013
The small slide in existing home sales in March may add to concerns from some quarters that the housing recovery is hitting a soft patch. But look closely and there are a fair number of positives in today’s release as well. … Existing Home Sales (Mar. …
22nd April 2013
The homebuilding recovery is running into a number of constraints, prompting three consecutive monthly falls in the NAHB homebuilder confidence index. In a worst-case scenario, confidence could weaken further and housing starts could mark time. But by far …
19th April 2013
